Ghost of a Chance
The SWC invades Vermont with a showcase of some of next year’s likely Bluegrass Derby starters.
TEAM FENZA
The Pacific Rim team sends a brutal first blow in the shape of #1-ranked Ghost in a Dancer. Triscay’s magnificent colt has lost only once in five starts and is looking better as he stretches out. The 3/1 favorite has posted the top two speed figs of any horse in this field and is a two-time graded winner. Here’s the caveat with this boy, though – he’s only had three weeks off, which isn’t much for a 2yo. His trainer reports that he’s RTG and looking good. This race will answer any lingering questions of his toughness. From here, he’ll head to the Breeders’ Bowl, then take a break. Watch for him to come flying from behind in the stretch.
Canunga Caper is a promising young colt sent to the post by trainer/breeder Bigkev. The Rock Hard Ten colt struggled a bit to break his maiden, but once he got closer to a mile, he took off. At 7.5 panels, he sauntered home over three lengths ahead of his MSW competitors. In his next start, he finished a respectable second in an overnight stakes. He should continue to improve, but he’s taking a big step up this weekend. Should run very respectably, but probably not one of the top contenders for the win.
Make Ya Move, trained and bred by Roscoe1, is not a favorite 14/1, but he’s still a nice runner. His trainer expects him to head for the front and dare the others to catch him (though instructions may end up changing). He looks happy to be stretching out to a mile, so he should be able to make his best run. Originally an alternate for the race, his trainer suspects he may be a bit overmatched in this tough field, but hopes that he can “fly the flag and play a part in the finish.”
Finally, the team is sending in 23/1 longshot Get Well Lids, ZZ2912’s thoughtfully-named Dubai Destination colt. He has struggled a bit in his first starts, but seems to have found his stride in dirt routes. His first dirt race (and first route, for that matter), was an owner-restricted stakes, which he won handily. He’s taking a big leap up to run with this crowd, however, and may need a bit more seasoning before he’s up to it.
TEAM NASA
The Americans (North and South) send the horse with the greatest hope of upsetting the Ghost. Broadway Dancer is lightly raced with only three starts, but this Kingmambo X Deputy Minister colt is bred to improve the longer he goes. His first and only route so far resulted in a Grade III win at a mile. This race is a step up for him, but not one that should worry his connections too much. He’s earned the highest speed fig of any horse but the favorite and he looks perfectly rested. The terrific P Harzheim will be in the irons, so the Superstables are in a position to represent the Americas very well.
The Americans are also sending the talented Telesio, an example of the classy horses that come out of Vermont’s Freshman Sire Series. Bernardini’s son has been posting some nice speed figures, but disappointed in his first graded attempt. Trainer Socalman points to his easy win at a mile in an overnight stakes, though, and believes his colt is much happier going around two turns. If he can run big this weekend, he has a shot at doing some damage in the race. Watch for him to come from back in the pack.
Kissisocal’s Very Funny sits at 9/1, but is an interesting little unknown in this race. The It’s No Joke colt is undefeated in three starts, but has never attempted a graded field. His last start was a mile-long overnight stakes, where he came from way back to win handily. He looks like a horse that should make the step to graded fields comfortably, but you never know until they try. He’ll need to improve a bit and has a good jockey who will do his best to help the colt do just that.
Opus’ Fleet Daisy also is a 9/1 shot and is just the kind of consistent animal you like to see in a race like this. Afleet Alex’s son has never been off the board in five starts, including a second and third in graded company. His only attempt at two turns wasn’t terribly impressive, but it was a win and it was on the lawn. He may get a nice bump from the switch back to his preferred surface. Watch for him to stay near the front and run his usual consistent race.
TEAM EUROPE
The shortest-odds horse for the Europeans is the Speightstown colt Huaralino. Sitting at 8/1 and boasting a 26%-winning jock, Zambaygo’s colt has posted a solid record and seems to be improving as he stretches out. This will be his first route, but his speed figs have been climbing as he adds distance. He has finished on the board in two overnight stakes and ran a competitive fourth in the Smackdown. This will be his first graded race. He will need to speed up a hair to compete with the big boys, but the added distance should benefit him. Keep an eye on him.
Rmkj20 sends Dehere’s son Duty and Honour, who has finished on the board in all three starts. He finished second in his debut, then broke his maiden with his first route race. He moved on to finish second in a long sprint. He seems to run comfortably in the low 80s, which won’t make him a major threat here, but points to a promising future as he matures. He looks destined to be happier going longer, which he’ll presumably do once he gets a chance.
22/1 Mourilyan will be representing Europe on behalf of the Abudhabi stable. While his speed figs aren’t the best, he’s very good at picking up paychecks at long odds, including a fifth in graded company. This weekend probably won’t be his time to shine, but he looks like he will be an extremely useful horse in the long run.
Finally the Europeans are sending Brentuk2’s Credit Bucks, who really does look better than his 32/1 odds. He’s unproven, with just a maiden win to his name, but he improved a bunch in his first route attempt. He broke his maiden easily at a mile and now is looking to step up. This race is likely to be too tough for him to win at this point in his career, but he looks like he could shape up to be an interesting runner.
SUMMARY
This race is shaping up to be a tough battle between FENZA and NASA. FENZA is sending the deserving favorite – the #1-ranked colt, who will be tough to beat. But NASA has a ton of depth in their starters and should do very well in this race. Nothing against Europe, which will be tough in many other races, but this does not look like their best chance for a win. Plenty of promising colts here – it should be a fun race!