G1-Winter Cup

One of the final big races of the year is the Winter Cup, a $3-million dollar turf route that has a distance of 13 furlongs.   Of the 14 horses entered into the race, only three have won their last race and two of these have odds over 10/1.  The race is opened to all horses age three and up with one filly willing to take on the boys.  Here’s a look at the runners:

 

1)  BARNSTORMED    5/1

In 9 starts this year, Barnstormed picked up three wins, two were in allowance races and the big win came in ght G2 Deauville.  He has three second place finishes that came in a mix of listed and grade level stakes.      He  enters this race after a decent third place finish in the Breedeers Bowl Turf, his first outing on an off track and sported a 112 speed, his best of the y ear.   He is a late runner and is capable of making up a lot of ground in the late stages of the race.  Oddmakers like him enough to make as a co-favorite.

 

2)   DAWG   11/1

Dawg has had a difficult year.  He started the season off with a win in the allowance category and has raced grade level the remainder of the season with all races at the long two mile distance.   In six grade races, his best outcome has been a third place finish, which he accomplished twice.    Speeds have been dropping since May and are now charting below the 100-mark.   His last two starts are major concerns as Dawg was non-competitive and finished double-digit lengths behind the winner and not finishing better than 7th.   He will trim a few furlongs off in distance with hopes of getting out of the dog house.

 

3)  ARSAT 6/1

After winning three races this year (which included G1 Equinics and G1 Gold Glass) and three second place finishes in grade stakes, the good times came to a sudden stop in his last start in the Millwood Cup (G1).  Arsat, who was pegged as the 7/1 co-favorite was a big letdown, finishing 10th and well back.   This really is not any different than 2017 when he put in a similar poor performance.  This guy, who has raced two mile distances all season is another that will trim back in distance.   Last race may be a throwaway as he has not done well in the Millwood Cup in two races and there could be opportunity here.

 

4)  TWISTED CONFLICT  13/1

This is one of three horses that has won in their start, in fact, he has won his last two races.   A bit of a Cinderella story as he progressed during the year where he won at the claiming level then jumped to the Grade class where he finished 3rd his first time out in the G3 Derby de Czech.  In October he dropped to a listed stake where he gained his first stake win.  His last start was in the G1 Singapore Cup on an off-track which he won by over 2 lengths, at 23/1, facing older horses for the first time.  This three year old passed the test and is able to compete with older runners and looks to take them down again.

 

5)  CAMBRIDGE STATION  5/1

Making his 8th start of the year is Cambridge Station who has a pair of grade wins which came in the G2 Stayer’s Dash and G2 Kergorlay. He has hit the board three other times but in two of those, was ten or more strides off the winner and benefited by tiring  horses falling back behind them.   He took a shot at Breeders’ Bowl glory in the Turf in his most recent start but ran rather flatly finishing 8th.    The key to success is getting the late run in gear.  When he does, he is a danger.  But in 5 of his 8 starts this year, he wasn’t able to get the thrusters going.

 

6)  KING OF EAGLES 22/1

Odds for this runner may be a bit generous, which sounds strange considering the current odds.  King of Eagles has a lot of work to do as he elevates from the allowance level to compete in the stakes level for the first time.   He’s raced 25 times and has only one win.   He broke his maiden in January and raced 6 times in allowance hitting the board three times.   His last start was a close third, missing by a quarter stride and trimming a 12 length deficit while running 12 furlongs with a 103 speed.    This guy’s one career win is a concern and although he can run late, he has issues in getting to the top spot and the huge jump in class maybe a huge undertaken for the King.

 

7)  MAYBE NOT EVER  7/1

A busy runner this year and has been ITM 7 of 8 grass starts this season.   He has four wins this year which include three at the allowance level and a recent one in a listed stakes in October.  Maybe Note Ever stepped things up in his last start by running in the G1 Singapore Cup finishing third with a decent late run on an off track.  He has done well on off-tracks, ITM in each of six races which worked as a benefit in his first grade race.   Maybe Not Ever has eclipsed the 110-speed level twice this year, both winning efforts and he is the child to Eclipse winning Maybe Not Today.   Today might be the day for a grade win.

 

8)  STANDINGINTHEGAP  8/1

Seven starts this year have seen Standigninthegap hit the board four times with one win.   The win came in the allowance class back in May.  He tried his luck in two grade races but could only muster out a fourth as his best finish in the G2 Deauville.   His last start was in a listed stake residency race where he crossed the line in third, some 7 strides off the winner.  While that sounds a bit sizeable, he was last at the half, over 20 lengths back so he made a tremendous effort to close ground in less-than-favorable weather conditions.   I like his late run capability and if the stars line up right, we may see this six year old close the gap for a win.

 

9) LIGHT UP THE DARK   7/1

Light up the Dark has been shining lately, winning his last two starts which include a listed stake win, with a 111 speed and toppling his foes by more than four strides.  His recent win came in the G1 Grand Carlos where the speed accrued up to 115 and the victory was by three lengths.   He’s been a busy runner this year with 10 starts and a total of 6 wins.   He’s generally a midfield runner, but as this field lacks  front end speed, I can see him possible fourth or fifth in the early fractions.   A very nice runner who looks like a contender in this race.

 

10)   KING LEO  26/1

King Leo did not start racing until this year as a four year old, kicking hi career off in May and breaking his maiden on his sixth try when force to run 14 furlongs.  The long distance was the masterpiece, as his speed moved upward from 79 to 91.  And has not stopped rising.   After a maiden win by 7 lengths, he took a win in his next race by 9 strides in a two mile allowance race.    Next was another jump in class to a listed stakes where he made it three-in-a-row and topping the 100 speed level with a 105 nd a 5-length win.   His win streak ended as he moved into graded competition, finishing third in the G3 Two Mile Classic at 40/1 and most recently second in the G2 New Zealand Drinking Device at 16/1 with a 107 speed.   A lot to like here and could proof to be the pace setter.

 

11)  DARK LE HAVRE  24/1

It has been a tough season for Dark Le Havre who showed some promise early in the year with back-to-back wins in an allowance and listed stake races.   Those wins came in smaller fields of 6 or less horses and since those races things have not gone well.   Four races followed where this runner has finished between fourth and sixth and ten or more lengths back in a variety of allowance, listed and grade stakes.   Speeds over the last four outings have topped out at 100 which doesn’t look like enough  to battle with this crew.

 

12)  HURRICANE POINT  16/1

A bit of an oddity and unique colt.   This three year old has only six races with a 3-2-0 record.  After breaking his maiden in his third start, he rolled the dice and entered into the G2 Greatwood Cup where he shocked the crowd as he won by three lengths at 41/1 and beating older horses.  He followed this up with a win in the G1 Saint Legend with another three length advantage at 11/1.  He joined older horses in his most recent start, the G1 Ark De ComicDog and was 40/1 in the huge 19 horse field.   This would turn out to be his only time he would be off the board, finishing 14th.   His two grade wins came with speeds of 111 and 110.  He sure has been on a hurricane roll and is fully capable of surprising once again.

 

13)  PROFFESIONAL  29/1

Here’s another three year old that looks to make the jump straight up to the grade level.   He’s raced six times and has been ITM his last four races which include a maiden victory as well as a win in a 12 furlong allowance race in his last start where he put the field away by four lengths at 12/1 and a career best speed of 106.  Proffesional has shined since running distances over 10 furlongs and continue to do so but taking this big leap of faith into the grade level may be too aggressive of a move at this time.

 

14)  OUTBACK ANVIL  9/1

Finally, we have the filly in the field, Outback Anvil who took on the boys in her last start in the G1 Millwood Cup.   In that race, she made her way to the front and drew off by three as the field entered the final turn of the 2 mile race.  She could not hang on to it but finished second and was beaten by two lengths.   The two races leading into that event were lovely wins with the girls where she scored speeds of 112 and 117 with the first win in the allowance grouping and the second in the G2 Prix Royal.   This lady performed well in her first run with the boys going 16 furlongs and drops a bit in distance for her next roll with the guys.    She is currently second in the long route, turf older female class and a win here would put her on top.

 

My Picks:

Arsat had tough time again when running in Millwood Cup for second time.  Can correct things in this outing.

Hurricane Point has been a roaring storm and can end season on good note.

King Leo has big price opportunity, showing life when going long distances, third pick.

Outback Anvil can take down the boys and should not be ruled out.