New York–The nine furlong, $500,000, Grade I, Princess Di Cap has attracted only seven entrants. Many people would say that a field of seven in a Grade I race results in a dreary race. Generally, in a small field, there is one dominate horse that easily wins the race as the other horses are just in the field to pick up the second and third place checks. However I don’t believe that is the case in this race. I believe that almost all the fillies and mares in this field of seven bring some interesting story lines to the table. Almost all have a talent to win if certain things happen and all face potential pitfalls. For example, Sly Go Lightly is facing older fillies and mares for the first time, Spooky Ballet and favored A Gold City run best at longer distances and Arc Over Danzig is trying to show that she is still a class filly. Who will conquer their demons and win the race? As always, Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang tries to sift the wheat from the chaff and provide the answer of how the race will play out.
PP1 Pick6’s West Fan Ted(6-1, Er Anderson). “First let me say that I think this will be a crackerjack race, but this mare demonstrates a problem with this older mare division after the top twenty. It just doesn’t really exist. Hit the board in a graded race and you will be ranked in the top thirty. West Fan Ted is rated 29th in the division after not winning in at least her last eight races. The last three times that she run in graded company she has finished 8th, 7th and 4th. I say this not to say that she doesn’t have any talent, (she does) but to show that the division is populated very thinly. In her career West Fan Ted has raced forty-five times, won six races and has earned over $274,000. Pick 6 did a nice job of switching her to the turf and regenerating her career. In her last race she finished second in a flat mile allowance and earned a 98 speed rating in doing so. Her best speed rating in her last four races is that 98. Seems to run her best when she gets clear early. She might have a chance to gain that early lead as she could be the only true early speed horse in the race of this distance. If she gains that early lead she might be able to control the pace and pull off the upset. Unfortunately, looking at her most recent past performances, she seems to stop when racing beyond a mile. Probably she will only earn a minor share of the purse.”
PP2, Oberon’s Sly Go Lightly(Ire)(7/2, Lawton). “Three year old daughter of Sligo Bay is facing older fillies and mares for the first time in her career. Often, we see a young filly intimidated by those older women and sometimes they have a few sub par performances until they overcome the issue. Obviously the first time is always fraught with doubt, however if she handles this race well, then a trip to the BB Turf Distaff is probable. Sly Go Lightly is having a terrific three year old season and career. Lifetime, she is 11 of 15 and has earned over $905,000. Currently she is ranked 8th in the three year old turf division. Oberon has done a terrific job of managing her career. A stalker, Sly Go Lightly has won six of her last seven races, which include two G3 wins and two G2 triumphs. The only loss in the sequence was an uncharacteristically poor performance in the G1 Cremation Stakes. Her best speed rating in this sequence came in her last race, the G2 Roberto Clemente Handicap, a race that she earned a 108 in. Besides having the facing older mares for the first time situation, Sly Go Lightly is facing the “I’ve never really raced nine furlongs syndrome”. A new distance is always a concern, but her breeding suggests that nine furlongs is within her range of ability. Put her in your exotic box.”
PP3, Bigbro’s Seattle Dixie(72-1, Seppy). “Usually I’d skewer a horse like this in my preview, but I know the connections. How you doing Mike? Long time no see. Need a Northfield Sunday or Thursday. Now Seattle Dixie is an interesting filly, way back in 2002 she won four consecutive races, topped off by a big G1 Movieland Starlet victory. In 2003, as a three year old she raced twice in the early part of the year and then she went on the shelf until this year. Her comeback has been less then stellar, as she has yet to break an 82 speed rating. Current connections paid over $2.1 million for her in the auction. That’s a lot of money. This race marks the first time she has ever raced long on the turf. She is zero for two when racing on the turf, but Ragtime Band is a descendent of Northern Dancer and the connections have pulled off big odd upsets before. Personally I think Seattle Dixie has a possible future as a dirt sprinter. I can’t recommend using based on current form.”
PP4, Apmccoy’s Spooky Ballet(5-2, Foster). “Daughter Silver Ghost is ranked 28th in the division. Lifetime she has won fifteen of twenty-four and has earned over $527,000. A closer, Spooky Ballet is always a solid competitor. In her last eight races she has dominated the allowance and minor stake fields, entering six and winning six. In that time period, Spooky Ballet has only faced graded company once. That came in her last start in the G1 Eddie O Cap and she was a solid third. Best speed rating in her last eight races is a 109 that she earned in a 9.5 furlong race. 9.5 furlong is probably her best distance, but she is competitive at 9 furlongs. Include her in your exotic wager.”
PP5, Stevemunoz’s A Gold City(9-5, Davis). “The early morning favorite is a daughter of Seeking The Gold out of an A.P. Indy mare. Currently she is ranked 6th in the division, but would rank higher if all of her races were in the classic distance division. She, however successfully makes many of her starts in the long turf division. In her career, A Gold City has made a lot of ‘gold’ for her connections. She earned over $1.1 million dollars while winning ten of twenty-three races. In her last eight races this standout filly has a G1 score, was second and fifth in two other G1’s and has a first and a second in G2 races. Her best speed rating in that stretch was a 109 that she earned while going ten furlongs in the G2 Adrian Adonis. As mentioned, A Gold City does not usually race at this distance but she does have a stake win at the distance way back in the early part of her three year old career. Generally A Gold City likes to be in front early, but she can rate off the early lead if necessary. She is the horse to beat and the potential stretch battle between her and Sly Go Lightly gives me shivers. Put her in your exotic box.”
PP6, Bigdaddyp’s Alle Alle Ava(8-1, Child). “Alle Alle Ave is a five year old daughter of Krusenstern. As the daughter of a bargain bred, Alle Alle Ave has had a very nice career. Lifetime, she has won 4 of 36 and has earned over $223,000. Alle Alle Ave’s last win came in a seven furlong allowance in week 2503. Best recent speed rating at the distance is a 96 that she had in her last race. In that race, a stake, she closed to be fourth. She could earn a minor award.”
PP7, Whirlaaway’s Arc Over Danzig(5-1, Gunn). “The last of the major contenders. Arc Over Danzig is a four year old daughter of Danzig out of a Seattle Slew mare. In her career she has won seven of thirty-one and has earned over $805,000. Her last win was at this distance eight starts ago. Since that win she has struggled, but a change of tactics in her last race may have changed her fortunes and added a new dimension to her ability. The race in question was the Grade I Cedora D stakes, a 9.5 furlong affair. In that race, Arc Over Danzig uncharacteristically went for the early lead, gained it and almost held on for the big win, finishing second with a 98 speed rating. In almost all her prior starts, she had never really gone to the top. An astute move from a crafty trainer to successfully ‘shake up’ a struggling horse. The last horse to use in your exotic wager.”
Thanks for the analysis Pete. All in all it should be a terrific race. Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.