Sharp 3-Year-Olds Try to Spring an Upset in Wide Open BB Sprint

The best sprinters in the SIM are set to meet up Saturday in Kentucky for the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint, with the top 5 older dirt sprinters all in the field. This is one of the more fun fields I’ve had the chance to handicap – there is an abundance of talent, and you have a few 3-year-olds that come into this race looking like they’re up to the task of handling older horses. That wouldn’t be unheard of, as it was a pair of 3-year-olds that made up the exacta in last year’s race.

Two horses return from the 2017 edition: the favorite HE’S IN SHAPE ran an excellent second as a 3-year-old last year, while FALCHION finished eleventh.

After some rain, the track for this year’s race will be listed as good at post time. That could add some intrigue to the handicapping – despite this being a field of older horses, many have never raced on an off track.

(1) PETIONFIRM (owner harrylanlow48, 11/1) draws the rail and is a Maryland-bred, not a place where Breeders’ Bowl horses typically originate. He is by Petionville, who won the 1995 Ohio Derby. That being said, don’t let that fool you – this horse has been blowing through most of his competition recently. After a few ungraded stakes wins late last year and this spring, owner harrylanlow48 took the colt to Nebraska, where he squeaked out a victory in the Grade II Sooner-Husker Stakes. He then went over to New York and finished a length behind HE’S IN SHAPE, the top older dirt sprinter in the SIM right now. He put up an SP of 118 in that race, and has been in excellent form coming into this race. He’ll switch from Midwest-based jockey M Grunhard to top German jockey E Bernstein. Don’t be surprised if he makes some noise at a decent price.

(2) CORNYX (owner pbcash1, 9/1) is making start number 24 in this race, and the gelding is coming off his first Grade I victory, taking the Old Name out in California back in late September. He beat some good horses in that race, including RAMSHACKLED and THEHISTORYOFCADET, who are both in the field. It’s also worth noting that he is 1 for 1 here in Kentucky, which was a Grade III win back in May. Before that last race, he was 0 for 3 hitting the board in graded stakes races, and he has never really had a next-level SP number. He’s been ultra-consistent with numbers in the low 110s lately, but I’m not sure efforts like those get it done here. On the other hand, he beat the #2 horse in the division last time, so you certainly can’t write him off. He switches back to jockey to L Radzinski, who had some success with the gelding earlier in the year and even back to last year.

(3) THE BOSUN’S BLADE (owner lenny31, 22/1) is one of the handful of 3-year-olds to take the plunge and try the older horses in a very competitive division. All in all, he has put together a really nice season, winning a Grade III and Grade II late in the spring and early in the summer, as well as easily winning an overnight stakes. He hit a bit of a hiccup in late August, where he never really got involved in the Grade I Prince’s Knight Stakes and ultimately finished tenth. Since then, he had a nice comeback start back in New York last time out, where his first test against older horses resulted in a third-place finish, behind HE’S IN SHAPE and PETIONFIRM. Jockey K Banner is back in the irons, who was on him for the Grade II win, but also for the tenth-place effort in August. This race will be an uphill battle, but that last race shows he can keep up with horses of this caliber.

(4) METAPHORICALLY (owner nepenthe25, 12/1) has not hit the board since February, when he won an Equinics race by a length and a half. Since then, ironically enough, he’s been racing in lower classes of stakes company, but has faded in pretty much every race. He has also not cracked the 110-mark in the SP numbers since April, which I would imagine is the minimum he would have to run in here to have a shot at hitting the board. The colt by Tiznow is actually coming out of an ungraded stakes race on the turf last time out, where he faded to finish fourth. There will be competition for the early lead in here, and with the best sprinters in the SIM showing up, you have to imagine the first quarter could be blistering. With the competition and his consistent fading in the stretch, I think he’ll have a tough time in here.

(5) FALCHION (owner phillipj3, 10/1) is an end-of-year award winner as well as the richest horse in the field, racking up over $3.6 million in earnings. A good chunk of that came in his back-to-back victories in the Sand Castle Golden Sprint last year and this year. He did not fare too well in this race last year out in California. After some really good races leading up to the Sprint, he finished a disappointing eleventh as the fourth betting choice. This year, he actually comes into the race in worse form than last year. After his win in the Sand Castle Golden Sprint in March, he was away from the races until July, where he put up a good second-place effort in a Grade I (he had star jockey T Ace in that race, and he returns here). Since then, though, he’s finished eleventh in a subsequent Grade I and was a well-beaten eighth last time out in an ungraded stakes, where he was favored. The jockey switch may help, and he has done well on off tracks before, but it will take everything he has against this group.

(6) AUDITORIUM (owner searching, 8/1) is the fourth choice in the betting in this race despite being the only one in here who has not won a graded stakes race. “He’s been consistent this year, but it’s been frustrating,” owner searching (better known as cvbear) told me earlier in the week. “Seconds and thirds in graded races are what got him in here, and his speed figures are competitive against these, but I thought he’d win one of them.” He has hit the board in four out of five graded stakes starts this year, to be exact, but hasn’t been able to find that extra gear. Two of those finishes in the summer were in Grade I races, and he does have a win in an overnight race last time out to show he’s not allergic to the winner’s circle. He switches to California ace rider F Gosssett here, who has never ridden the colt. His owner tells me that he doesn’t really fear anyone in the field, which seems to me to be the right take – although I’d be a little afraid of the #13 horse. Unlike some others in here, he is coming into this race in nearly top form, and broke his maiden on an off track. Can he break his graded-stakes maiden here? It’s certainly possible.

(7) RAMSHACKLED (owner theduke100, 30/1) is a 3-year-old by Shackleford and out of G2-winning mare BOURBON COFFEE. He’ll be making just his third graded-stakes start in this race, but he’s already had success in those two starts. He won the Grade III Bay Shore in New Jersey back in June, and then took on older horses last time out in the Grade I Old Name, where he finished a solid second behind CORNYX. He has clearly been hitting his peak stride of late, and has not finished off the board since an ungraded stakes race all the way back in January. Jockey M Scott gets the call again, and if he rides as well as he did in his start, this colt could be primed to make some noise at a really good price. All it will take is a step forward from the September race to have a shot to hit the board in here.

(8) THEHISTORYOFCADET (owner hofcadet, 6/1) has had quite the decorated career, and is a well-bred son of Malibu Moon out of SIM Hall of Fame winning mare OTTO HISTORY. This will be his 25th start, but he has not shown signs of slowing down recently, as he has not finished off the board this year. That includes a close second in the Sand Castle Golden Sprint back in March and a victory in the Grade I Binger Handicap in July. After a couple months off, he had the early lead last time out in the Old Name, but faded to finish third. Jockey A Jolly gets back aboard here, and was also his jockey when he won the Grade II Due North Stakes in June. One thing of note if you look pretty far down the PPs – he didn’t take to this surface well on a good track last March. That being said, he was not in the kind of form he’s in now, so it’s difficult to know how he’ll handle the wet track this time around. His mother had three top-2 finishes in G1 races on off tracks, so the pedigree suggests that he shouldn’t mind it.

(9) A ROARING SUCCESS (owner redhill6, 9/1) is a Turkish-bred son of Lion Heart, the runner-up of the 2004 Kentucky Derby and winner of the 2004 Haskell. He has a Grade I win on his resumé, which was around this time last year when he won the Grade I Double F Memorial in New Jersey. Since then, he has bounced all over the class ladder this year, and has not yet recorded a victory in a stakes race this year. He hit the board in just 1 of 3 graded stakes starts this year, and failed as the heavy favorite last time out. His SP numbers have improved over his past couple of starts, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to run a race that’s good enough to win against a field like this. South Africa-based jockey D Ledwith gets on board – he was along for the ride in the colt’s first Grade I win last year. He is an upgrade from recent jocks and may help him hit that next step. He’s also 2-for-2 on a wet track. A tough horse to gauge – I’ll have to see a race first.

(10) CITY KUSH (owner bigcoleman1, 12/1) is actually making his first start in a Grade I race here, and will be taking a pretty significant step up compared to his recent races. This is a colt who started on some of the smaller circuits, breaking his maiden in Arizona and winning his first allowance race for a purse of $9,700 in Wyoming. By 2017 in his 3-year-old season, he was winning multiple stakes races, and closed the year with two Grade III victories. He picked right back up earlier this year, winning two Grade II races and finishing a close second in a third. Since that start in April, his form has been much more inconsistent. He has not won any stakes races, and has finished off the board in 3 out of 5 starts. This is another colt in here that has racked up a lot of wins, but does not appear to be coming into this race in the best form. His recent races tell me that he’ll struggle to hit the board here.

(11) DETESTABLE (owner cylla1111, 21/1) is the final of the three 3-year-olds in this race, and he’s another one that makes you think at a big price. The son of Into Mischief started his career early last year in a pair of hot races, but by May was finishing second in a Grade II race, and was winning his first graded stakes race by Labor Day. After taking the winter off, he returned to the races in March, and has not finished worse than second in a variety of Grade II, Grade III and ungraded stakes races this year. He is coming off an impressive win in the Grade III Bluegrass Cup Sprint last time out, where he put up an SP number of 116, which is better than most of this field’s last race. He has never raced against older horses, but does that matter? Look at the favorite in this race, HE’S IN SHAPE – he finished second in that same race last year and then finished second in the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint in his first start against older horses. He may be a 3-year-old, but he seems to have the talent to make a run at this at a juicy price.

(12) YEAH THANKS (owner horseriot, 7/1) has hit the board in each of his seven starts this year, and they have been against some good horses. In fact, in his last race back in early September, the Grade I Foregone in New York, he finished second. That’s good by itself, but he defeated the favorite in this race HE’S IN SHAPE, who finished fourth. He is a horse that will need to be reckoned with. He not only has been very consistent, but has put up four SP numbers of over 115 this season, which shows me that he’s capable of the kind of race that can win this. The son of Tiznow has won 12 out of 18 lifetime starts, which is impressive. Jockey J Ledwith is back in the irons for the third consecutive race, and he seems to be in really good form coming into this. He certainly looks like a contender to win in this spot.

(13) HE’S IN SHAPE (owner primus, 5/1) certainly looks like the horse to beat in this race, although he has only gotten to the winner’s circle in 2 out of 6 starts this year, so he’s certainly not invincible. What he does have going for him, though, is the impressive victory last time out in the Grade I Iceberg in New York, where he put up an SP number of 120, which was tied for his career best and also the best in the field. He is saddled with an outside post yet again – he has been outside of post 10 in 5 out of his 6 starts this year, which may have contributed to his struggles in a couple of those races. Another thing to look at is the jockey switch back to J Lowich, who is not statistically as solid as some of his more recent riders. He rode HE’S IN SHAPE back in February in the Equinics, and finished sixth. So, while there is a lot to love about this colt, there are some red flags that make me reconsider at such a short price. Six furlongs seems to be his favorite distance, so this is horse that could be sitting on a big race, especially after coming up just short in last year’s running.

(14) DAYLIGHT CIRCLE (owner bigmoose3, 9/1) has the most experience in the field, with 27 starts already under his belt. He has a pair of Grade III wins, but is still searching for a win in one of these bigger races. After solid finishes of second in the Grade II Due North and fourth in the Grade I Binger Handicap, he shipped here to Kentucky for the Grade III Scottsdale BB Stakes. In that race, he threw up an inexplicable clunker, finishing twelfth as the solid favorite in that race. That was his first race here, so does he not like the Kentucky surface? One thing that I think works in his favor is the jockey switch back to S Cadet, who clearly seems to be the jock that has had the most success with him. He only has one start on an off track, where he finished off the board, but that was a long time ago. His mother, ONE SKY, also was 0-for-1 in the off going, but this certainly is not a great sample size to make any assumptions out of. I think he’ll run a much better race than he did last time out. If he does, he has enough raw talent to make a late charge at the leaders.

My Picks:

(12) YEAH THANKS, 7/1 – I struggled to find a horse to put on top because of good this field is, but I settled here. He’s beaten the favorite in 2 out of their last 3 meetings, and he’s had some really nice races this year.

(8) THEHISTORYOFCADET, 6/1 – Another horse that has been almost a lock to hit the board this year. I look for another solid effort here.

(11) DETESTABLE, 21/1 – I think one of these 3-year-olds is sitting on a big race and will make some noise at a price. This would be my pick for the most likely. His first meeting against older horses, but I don’t think he’ll be phased.

(6) AUDITORIUM, 8/1 – Just hasn’t been able to get to the winner’s circle in a graded race, but has been very close. Not sure he gets there in this spot, either, but he fits in well with this group.

(13) HE’S IN SHAPE, 5/1 – I’m probably nuts leaving a strong favorite off the board, and he could very well win this race given some of his recent races. That being said, I’m worried about the jockey switch being a hindrance. It was in the Equinics – will it be here too?

Others to watch:
(1) PETIONFIRM, 11/1 – The Maryland-bred has proved he belongs with this group, especially with his past couple of races.
(7) RAMSHACKLED, 30/1 – The longest shot on the board has been fantastic over the past few months. Could make a splash at a big price.

Good luck to everyone on Saturday!