Primetime Thunder Bluff
This week’s road trip begins here in
1. NEW YORK THUNDER – seppy – This four year old colt’s recent form clearly shows a current liking for the middle distance and sets him up nicely here. Not quite making it into shared favouritism I find a little bit of an injustice give his stellar run three starts ago at the very distance of this week’s race. It could be said that he’s minimally lost the edge in his last two, but still found a very comfortable win last time out, and at two furlongs further. Don’t let the odds line fool anyone, this guy’s right in the hunt here.
2. PRIMETIME EMBLEM – ss89 – Here we find the first of our favourites, and admittedly a little puzzling. He’s a career sprinter who’s found tremendous success thus far in shorter races but to this point is unproven at anything beyond six and a half furlongs. He looks to prefer running at the front, which may lead to his downfall in here. The unknown factor makes it difficult to right him off altogether, but one could be led to believe, those around him in top form with experience at or around this distance will probably outsmart him heading to the post.
3. DELERE – epcotlen – After really hitting the ground running during his three year season this colt looks to take another dash at the graded level. Two graded starts so far have come up a little empty handed but a marked improvement was found in his second run at the level. Age and maturity may have an impact in this race, but form is certainly there, and at this distance. Odds of 14/1 could make a very attractive investment for the shrewd punter looking for a big return, and he does have the potential to upstage his older rivals.
4. MY FIRST INDY – unreal – A steady rise through the allowance ranks sees this four year old have his first stakes attempt. Those of the school would have probably preferred to see this guy take up the challenge of an open stakes race initially, but as everyone knows, just about anything can and usually does happen. This is likely to be a tough challenge however.
5. STORMY BLUFF II – barn25dog – Interesting research shows that despite this four year olds wonderful success, on the way to amassing over 2¼ million in earnings, he hasn’t really had a lot of luck beyond nine furlongs. In retrospect his last run over eight and a half furlongs brought with it a huge 110 speed in a mighty close to just miss the win by a quarter of a length. To your writer this indicates that perhaps the time has come, and he’s finally agreed to maintain his best over a longer distance. He’s the second of the favourites, and despite the mentioned distance concerns, the time really does appear to have come, making him a very tough runner to beat here.
6. UNDER THE RED SKY (GB) – barbheff – Twelve runs from fifteen starts in the money, including four wins is certainly nothing to be sneezed at, but this four year olds true success has come at allowance and MSW level. He has run stakes before, including a show two starts ago where he produced his best ever speed to date, but the work looks to be cut out for him in this one against a very high quality field.
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8. CARSON AND DANE – unreal – Second runner in the race for this trainer and probably the best shot of the two in this field. Clearly he’s ranked 12th in this division for one good reason, he’s darn good at this length of race. After hovering around the ten furlong mark for quite a few races, his form does seem a little hit and miss, putting in a solid effort one run, then becoming a little complacent the next. He’ll have to put in his best here, but he’s done it before, especially throughout his three year old season. I’d suggest this guy may be one for the favourites to be a little wary of.
9. WASSIE’S RAINBOW G – wassie – Two things immediately come to mind when researching this horse. Firstly a clear tendency to baulk once confronted with a graded field, and secondly an extra furlong over the ten on offer here is what he desires. The fourteen he saw at his last start was too far, but the series of ten or thereabouts prior had him closing dramatically only to run out of ground at the death. One gets the feeling that is exactly what’s likely to happen in this race, although overall his speed will have to improve a notch or two.
10. WILL’S HERO – crash77 – An incredible forty races has been run by this guy, and yet he’s still only four years old. Success has come for him, but generally his best has been at allowance level, managing a number of wins. Unfortunately this won’t be his day; there are simply too many seasoned graded runners in this field, with a lot more accomplishments. I don’t think he’ll finish last but he certainly won’t be challenging for outright honours.
11. THE LAST RIDE II – gipper7 – Another runner who’s as yet unproven at this length, and in this case in fact has never gone this far. As with the #2, front running seems to be the preferred race plan, and if this is the case this time round, it’s a big ask for him to find both outright pace and stamina at longer than he’s ever gone before. Unfortunately I see him fading rather badly over the last couple of furlongs. Keep in mind however; a different approach to this race, entailing taking a little easy early, and this guy does have the outright pace to mix it with the best.
12. GEARED DOWN – crashcours – If the skies were to open up, then there’d be a good 5 length victory heading this guys way, but unfortunately for him, we’re racing on a fast track. Overall however it looks as though this colt is really asking for a bit of a holiday, he’s really cried enough in has last two outings and running him into the ground is going to nothing but diminish his chances of returning to the sizzling form he’s capable of. On the surface however, he could probably do with a little more distance given the track is dry, but he’s just too tired it would seem to even test the front runners here.
13. PRECIOUS JEWEL – highc – This mare probably should have been getting more sugar than she has given the solid performances she puts in race to race. It seems that every time round she just keeps on motoring whilst others begin to fail. Her overall speed probably won’t be enough to give the leading pack too many frights, but when the steam starts running out up front, just watch this girl wave to a few as she cruises on by. As said, probably not one to challenge for the lead, but only a fool would take the chance of leaving her out of at least the show come post time.
14. EXBOURNE’S WORLD – thematrix – Having never run this distance before shouldn’t be a factor for this horse given he has age and maturity on his side. Coming in as the third of our favourites a quick glance back over his racing history has absolutely huge speed numbers thrown in one’s face. Graded company doesn’t seem to be a problem in the slightest and his ‘from the back’ running style should help overcome any kind of distance issues. Especially since in his last run it was only a single furlong less, and he got the job done through the stretch. With all said, come post time I’d expect this guy to be right amongst the top few.
All in all I get the feeling STORMY BLUFF II is perfectly poised to take honours here, but look for a serious challenge from EXBOURNE’S WORLD. He along with two or three others could really take it to the joint favourite here, meaning it’s very likely nearly a third of the field could be within a couple of lengths post time.