Big Race Preview 3336
Five grade one races on tap this weekend all with Breeder’s Bowl implications. A big contest for long distance route horses led by Freeze, one of the more prestigious one mile turf races led by Hail Cesario, The Demona on turf could lead a filly to the Breeder’s Bowl Filly and Mare Turf, the Tri City Sprint could be the launching pad for a sprinter to the Breeder’s Bowl Sprint and finally a one mile race for two year olds will for sure put at least one of the runners into the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Turf.
Race: 3336.0414 Man Of War Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and three eighths on the Turf
Freeze is your favorite here in the Man of War Stakes. Freeze has stepped up in the second half of this year with a second place finish in the Coronation Cup, a win at the Smackdown and a win last time out in the grade one Sword Swallower. If he keeps this up he will be a contender in the Breeder’s Bowl. Freeze is a closer type although he tends to be mid pack or better despite being more than ten lengths off the pace. These type runners are always vulnerable to a good front runner but if he runs his race he should be a pretty solid favorite.
The very confusingly named Another Tenpin Tap is the second choice on the morning line. He is the second choice but has not won a graded stakes race. He is a two time listed stakes winner and recently has placed in the back to back grade one events. He finished ahead of Freeze two races back and it does seem only a matter of time before he breaks through and gets that graded stakes win. He likes to stalk the early pace and that will keep him in a whole lot of these long distance races. If there is not pace horse here he can capably set the pace as well. He could be tough to pass in the stretch here.
There is a fall off in talent past the top two but Stunning Blow seems the most capable of competing with the top two. He has bounced around distance wise this year but he has performed better at this distance. He ran third in the Smackdown at this distance behind Feeze. Throw out his last race he although he appears to not have much of an excuse. He has proven he can bounce back well off those off performances. He will likely not be too far back early so should be in a good position to do well here.
Race: 3336.2814
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Turf
Hail Cesario leads a full field of milers after a one million dollar purse. Hail Cesario has not won as much as his connections would have liked him to however he does have a pair of graded wins at a mile this year including the grade one Crock of Gold. He has been pretty consistent running good speed figures. He is a deep closer so he will probably come from dead last. I do not see a bunch of speed in here so it could be slow and he could be closer to the pace than usual. Still look for him late.
Zanzabar has been coming along very nicely this year. He had a five race win streak come to an end last time out where he just missed in the grade one Jack the Man Stakes. He beat Hail Cesario in the Smackdown and has run some huge speed figures. He will stalk and pounce and if he keeps this up look out Breeder’s Bowl Mile contenders. Zanzabar will not be too far from the pace and he can be a bear to catch in the stretch so the favorite better bring if he wants to win this one.
Spare T is a horse that if he is on his game he can run with the top two. His last two races though have not been up to par for him. He was never in either race both graded events at this level. He is not over the hill and should return to form here. He was further off the pace in his last two races and with not much pace here should be closer to the front. That I think will spark Spare T into running well here.
For a bit of a long shot here take a look at Hitman. He will be your front runner and he has proven he can go gate to wire at this level when he took the grade one Dr Reuben Garr Memorial in April. He ran a good third at the Smackdown facing several of these runners and is coming off a win in a listed stakes prepping for this race. He should have no pressure here and could easily scoot away from this field. He seems to control the fate of several horses in here depending on how fast he goes early.
Race: 3336.0114 Demona Handicap – Grade I – $450,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Turf
Nine fillies and mares take to the turf on the west coast led by Empire Reef and Meatball Hero. Empire Reef is getting long in the tooth with thirty-four career races and Meatball Hero is much the same with forty-one career races.
Meatball Hero is in the better current form right now on a three race win streak including grade two races in her last two times out. She is cutting back in distance here which is usually a plus. She has run well from about a mile to a mile a five sixteenths her career but her new found form has been at a mile and a quarter or a little longer. She could be mid pack early several lengths off the early pace. With her current form she seems like a very serious contender.
Empire Reef is coming off two horrible races by her standards. Those races have been at longer distances than this and a mile and an eighth is probably Empire Reef’s best distance. She won a grade one over this very same turf course back in June. She has speed and more than likely will go to the lead. If she can rebound she will be a handful to catch in the stretch.
Misty is trained by one of the sim’s very best trainers Topicount. Misty has shown an affinity for the off turf course winning a grade one race last time out. This time the course is firm and although she does not flash incredible high speed figures she is the type of runner that can pick up the pieces if this thing falls apart. She will be coming from off the pace and if no one steps up and runs a big speed figure she will be a player here.
The younger horse to watch for is Change My Mind. She is stepping up to this level for the very first time. She is a listed stakes winner and ran second at this distance last time out in a restricted stakes race. She has the type of speed figures recently that shows she is just as fast as the favorites. If she improves any she is a major player here. She has won three of her last five and is trained by another good trainer in Sdmf. She will come from off the pace watch for her late.
Race: 3336.2915 Tri-City Sprint – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Six and one half furlongs on the Dirt
A full field of sprinters are geared up in
Walksthroughwalls is the second favorite on the morning line. He is the type of pace setter than is capable of giving Rock N Roll Heaven fits. Walksthroughwalls was a grade two winner earlier in the year and has been consistent most of the year. He has shown he is capable of running those 110+ speed figures it takes to win at this level. He has not won since April but his form looks to be rounding up and going back to a little shorter distance could be beneficial. Look for him on the lead trying to take the field gate to wire.
Ab Fab is a two time grade one winner this year and one of those wins was the prestigious Gary Carter Handicap. He has taken some extra time off over the summer months and that could be a good thing for him. He could need a race to be back on his game but has shown the ability to run well off layoffs. Ab Fab is a middle of the pack not too far off the early pace type runner.
Race: 3336.5915 High Flyer Stakes – Grade I – $400,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 2 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf
With juveniles you just never know and we have a contentious full field of juveniles all looking to punch a ticket to the Breeder’s Bowl. A run here though seven weeks before the Breeder’s Bowl means you win here you do not run again until the Breeder’s Bowl. An attempt between now and then means you go into the race making your third start in seven weeks not exactly a winning formula. Still the race has produced two winners of juvenile races on Breeder’s Bowl day, here is the run down of the past winners.
Budda for a Day, a filly, won the race last year had a restricted allowance between the race and the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Filly Turf where she finished fifth. Andy’s Choice won it in 2005 and did not run again until the Breeder’s Bowl where he ran fourth. In 2004 Like a Porcupine took this race and waited till the Breeder’s Bowl where he won. In 2003 Barb’s Blue Hen won and waited to the Breeder’s Bowl finishing ninth. Greenback Passer won and waited till Breeders Bowl finishing fifth. 2001 saw Splendor win the race wait till Breeder’s Bowl and finish eleventh. In 2000 Buda With The Slew won , however the race was run earlier in the year. Buda With The Slew had a race four weeks later finishing third and then four weeks after that took the Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile Dirt.
With the history out of the way lets get to the runners who are led by favorite Valyrian Steele. He has won three of four races thus far but since his last win was in a restricted stakes he needs to do well here to earn a trip to the Breeder’s Bowl. This will be his first attempt in a route race but he appears to have an off the pace running style and pedigree to suggest he will have no problem with the added distance. He was well back in his last race and he could be again today, that could leave him with too much to do late in the race.
The Stardust is the second ranked juvenile on the turf in the classic distance category. He takes his first stab at the graded level with a couple of listed stakes under his belt. He has done it in front running fashion. Last time out he established an early lead and never looked back winning by two lengths earning an 88 speed figure. He could get that lead again today and with that top notch speed figure he earned last time out he could very likely be your winner.
The undefeated Scientific Proof is a perfect two for two in his young career. He broke his maiden at a mile and then won a listed stakes at a mile. He is proven at the distance and has a top notch pedigree. His speed figures are right there with the top runners in the field. He has shown a stalking type running style in both of his races. Any move forward definitely puts him into the thick of things here.
Saint Vivant has placed in two grade three races in his last two starts. He only finished a length and three quarters behind the winner last time out at this distance earning a nice 85 speed figure. He will be mid pack early maybe a little closer toward the front. He has a nice pedigree and a good run here would probably give him the necessary points to earn a trip to the Breeder’s Bowl.