G1 Muddy Waters: Breeder’s Bowl Champ Limestone Looks to Shake Off Poor Form

Florida (FL)  – Saturday, October 13, 2018 — 2:10:00 PM EST

Muddy Waters Leg I – 13 Furlongs on Dirt

Grade I — Purse : $500,000

Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older 

Thirteen older horses look to win over thirteen furlongs in Florida on Saturday in the G1 Muddy Waters Leg I. Previous end-of-year award winner Limestone joins Hateful Entity and Off the Sheet Bulb as the biggest name entries but over half the field boasts a top-three finish in a graded stakes race so expect tough competition for even the minor places this weekend.

Back on the Trail (17/1) came in fourth at the G1 Seattle Stayer last time out, demonstrating his ability over sixteen furlongs. His last race over this distance was a rather disappointing eight at the G2 Grumpy Old Man Marathon, however. He has three G3 wins from earlier in the season and shows off the sheer talent entering the gate this weekend as he takes the second-longest morning odds.

Ten Lil Warlords (8/1) has yet to race in a graded stakes, but won the Wild Stab Dirt Endurance by three furlongs in August. He previously ticked off five in a row and has won eight of fifteen starts, with no prior places or shows mixed in.

The aforementioned Limestone (6/1) starts out as the joint second-favorite. He won the Breeder’s Bowl Dirt Marathon last season but has failed to cross the line first since a January victory in the G2 Buckeye Stayer. In five starts since then, he finished second once, third twice, and fourth an additional two times. Perhaps he can get back on track as we slide deeper into Autumn.

Daicon (13/1) has won nine of seventeen and is a son of Giant’s Causeway, but has never been tested at this level before. As a five year old, he won’t get a lot more chances to add a top victory to his list but his connections must be looking to give him a big test, and potentially lower his he-mare price, before he heads to the barn for good.

Dark Angel Song (16/1) has struggled to stake out his best surface and distance. The past twelve months have seen him race on turf, poly, and dirt from eight to fourteen furlongs. One win over that time, a 9.5 furlong romp in Japan that may have demonstrated his true quality.

A Mambo Line (7/1) came close at the Grumpy Old Man Marathon and follows both Back on the Trail and Limestone from the Seattle Stayer. He tends to start pretty far to the back of the pack and looks to make a late charge.

In the seventh gate is Strategic Conquest (11/1), who finally broke through at the G3 level with a win at the Europe Stayer in Surrey. He is much more of a frontrunner and is a good candidate to set the pace on Saturday.

Bernoulli Equation (13/1) has a strong pedigree (BERNARDINI x CURLIN x LEROIDESANIMAUX) but not quite the wins to back it up just yet. An allowance victory in Massachusetts as the heavy favorite was his first since last April.

Curly’s Vision (8/1) broke a string of sixteen straight top-three finishes by coming in ninth at the G3 Fall Championship. He’s been a bit unlucky not to take any at the stakes level just yet but you have to think that an eventually victory is in the cards at some point.

Mahnba (142/1) has a history of starting races as the longshot but this one is a much tougher ask than any he’s faced before. Still, you can’t win if you don’t try. With zero entry points at this distance, his connections will likely just receive a fun day at the track rather than any prize money.

In the eleventh gate is Koyunbaba (8/1). He is another veteran of the Grumpy Old Man, finishing 6^th on that occasion but responded well to win an allowance race in August. He had a strong run of form in ungraded stakes races in the past eighteen months, winning four out of six with victories ranging from 11.5 to sixteen furlongs.

Hateful Entity (5/1) is the favorite this weekend but has not shown anything of note since April. A tenth and two six-place finishes must give his connections some cause for concern, though his speed figures are as strong as any in this field.

Off the Sheet Bulb (6/1) has had a similar tendency to underperform against strong fields since taking his first stakes win last August. He is now zero for his last eight and has never faced a distance longer than twelve furlongs before in his career.

Prediction:

1. Ten Lil Warlords
2. Limestone
3. Strategic Conquest