Spotlight Race of the Day-Kentucky Allowance 9/28/18
A new bulb has been inserted into the spotlight and time to shine it upon one of the undercard races. Friday, we are focused on a field of 7 competing in a 13 furlong dirt race in Kentucky. Horses of the age of either 3 or 4 may enter and the age group is pretty much evenly divided for this race. Rain clouds have moved on so we anticipate a fast track for the NW3L grouping.
1 DEPUTY DENOVO 5/2- The son of I’ll Have Another has shown a breakout of late with the speeds. He zapped through the 100-level in June scoring a 105 at 9f and picked up his second career win in the process. He had a lovely rally from the rear of the field and 14 down at the half to power off to a 1-1/2 length win. In his last start he nudged up to 10f and had a mild improvement in speed to 106. He spotted the field an 11 length at the half as he watched from the rear but could only gain four lengths but that was enough for a third place finish. Extends even deeper in distance in this race but I expect he will be a contender.
2 PROSPECT MOON 12/1- A well-bred four year old out of Malibu Moon just has not put things together. He’s been put through the wringer this year trying to figure out what works. He’s raced sprints and races as far as 11 furlongs. He’s raced poly, dirt and turf and even ran in the slop. In six race this season,his best outcome was a third on the slop at 10 furlongs, with a 94 speed, his second best behind a 95 on the poly. Prospect ran 11 furlongs in his last outing only to finish far off the lead. Prospect will probably continue to struggle in this race and the allowance level just hasn’t worked well.
3 CHEBRE RIDGE 22/1- This colt is out of Aspen Ridge, a sire who has not been used much over the last two years. Chebre has raced nine times with one victory which was earned in a Hot race when he first touched the race track back in March of 2016. He’s hit the track only twice this year with a third in a small field at 8.25f back in February. Less than 2 weeks ago he took on a distance of 9.5f and finished 8th in the 10 horse field. He notched off his lifetime best speed of 93 in the race. Despite the improved speed, he surges up in distance to 13 furlongs, adding nearly a half mile off his last start. I think this task will be difficult as he squares off with horses capable of 100+ speeds in the longer distance races.
4 HIDDEN SKILLS 2/1-This colt has a proven record to hit the board on both the turf and dirt surfaces. Recently, this Animal Kingdome child has raced in a trio of allowance races with a win and a pair of thirds while nailing speeds between 101 and 105. Distances varied from 10 to 12 furlongs in these races. Hidden tends to race in the back third of the fields and will strut towards the front end. The trio of races were all on the turf and he returns to the dirt where his speeds were enhancing from 83 at the start of the year to 96 before switching surfaces. I believe he’ll find success moving to the dirt and there should be no reason that a 100+ speed won’t follow.
5 THE MARVELOUS ONE 19/1-Was sired by Itsmyluckyday, a sire who has seen declining usage over recent years. But this three year old colt has found success in long distance running. He broke his maiden in June at 12f coming from the rear of the field and 14 lengths off at the half to win by 1/2 a length. Two races later, he would take on older horses at 14 furlongs and win by three. So why is he at 19/1? The wins came at speeds of 88 and 86 which would be a compelling reason as others in this field are capable of better. He does have a late kick that I like and he has recently found it at 12f and better in distance and I think he can take a paycheck here, but not sold that it will be for one of the top three spots.
6 STORMING BAYERN 8/5- The Bayern bred runner has two wins in 22 starts and both of them came in the first two months of 2017. He’s been shut down since and has been ITM 4 times in the 14 starts following the win. He has a pair of starts in longer distance races which came in September of last year at 12f and 10f, finishing 6th and 4th. Even though this was a year ago, the races before and after these longer distance races were between 7f and 9f and he scored 100+ speeds in those. The longer distance runs charted at 84 and 93. He’s a rear field type runner who hasn’t been able to fire up a late run and has hit the board only once during 2018 in four starts. I feel the oddmakers are being generous with this one.
7 WRONG TIME LEO 9/1-Bred for the grass and sired by Galileo, this colt has done better on the dirt. He is making his first start since the conclusion of 2017 with hopes of a new life. After a decent start in 2017, hitting the board in the first three starts, he struggled the rest of the year and landed ITM once in nine races. In one of those, he finished 2nd in a 10f event. He had one other race at a significant distance of 11f finishing last. All hopes are on the long nine month rest and tackling a long distance route. He could be the upsetter here, but I would give him another start or two to get him freshened up.
I see this being a two horse race and I’m giving the edge to Hidden Skills as I think the flip back to the dirt will not hurt anything and could fire him up.
The field lacks front runners so it will be easy for the late closers to capitalize and Deputy Denovo fits right in. He could take down my top pick and the extra distance should not be an issue.
The Marvelous One has shown late run ability in longer distance races and can also take advantage of the lack of front speed in this race.