Vengeance Approaches
A talented field with something for everyone will show up this Saturday for the Grade II Will Avenge Thee Stakes at a mile on the dirt. The colts have a variety of experiences and running styles and it should be a hard-fought battle as DelPenn’s invasion of Upper New York continues.
Worldwide’s Cheap Thrillers leads off from the inside, and a fine young horse he is. The son of Danehill Dancer has a 21% winning jockey aboard and has never been off the board in four starts. The winner of the Grade III Montana Futurity has improved nicely as he stretches out, so look for big things from this stalker. I like how he’s setting up for this race – his first route could be a doozy.
Next door will be Minnesota’s Tall Squall, a longshot at 16/1. He’s been improving steadily with each outing, but he’s going to need a big boost to get the kind of run it will take to win here. A nice colt, but one who looks like he’s likely to be a little out of his depth.
The three hole will hold Jonsnow’s Sweep Dance, a Distorted Humor son sitting at 18/1. His best speed fig so far was a 71, well below what it will take to be a factor here. Looks like he could be a solid runner, but this field looks like way too much for him.
Then comes Rigel’s Fingerpaint. While I think he’s better than his 38/1 odds indicate, I don’t expect too much of him here. He could surprise, though. He’s won his last two races very comfortably and seems to like the distance. He’ll need to improve a fair amount on that career-high 79 fig though. Overall, I think he’s underrated in the odds, but not of the caliber of the best here.
Exterminate, bred and raced by Younggroup, is a likely young horse. The son of Red Ransom has only 2 races under his belt, but he’s looked very good in both, posting very nice speed figures. He broke his maiden with a flourish last time out, showing nice improvement as he stretched out to a mile. Whether he can compete with this talented field is an open question, but if he can maintain the speed he’s shown so far, he will be in the thick of things.
7/2 favorite Ghost in a Dancer, raced by Triscay, is the most accomplished horse in this young field. The late-running son of Ghostzapper has a win and a second in graded company, plus a nice win in the hotly-contested Smackdown. He has improved with each outing and posted a whopping 91 fig last time out. He also has lined up the best jockey in the field. Clearly the one to beat, the 11th ranked colt has an excellent shot at beating back all comers this weekend.
Golden Concern is a longshot at 18/1, but trainer Phillipj2 has confidence in the colt after a decisive win in his one and only race. He posted a perfectly respectable 79 fig and won nicely in a big field. Too soon to know much about this guy, but now’s the time for him to step up if he wants a shot at the big year-end races.
Ads1’s Strike Again is in a similar boat to Golden Concern, with only a single race under his girth. That was a very nice win with an 84 fig in a large but owner-restricted race. Like several well-regarded colts, he likes to come from well back. He should like stretching out here and if he improves a bit he’ll be a horse to reckon with.
Snappa7 brings Nine Carat Gold to the fray. The Rock Hard Ten son started out well, with a maiden and stakes win, but has been less competitive in tougher races. He finished a closing fourth in his first graded outing, then seventh in the Smackdown. He’s never totally out of contention, but he may have a hard time competing with the best here. He’s had a couple of shots against tough competition and just hasn’t been stellar. This will be his first route, though, so maybe this will give him the small boost he needs to be really competitive.
There’s not a ton to say yet about Bunsay’s Pantalaimon. Like several others, this is only his second start. That first one was a nice maiden win, but that may or may not translate to graded success. Wish he had a jock who won more than 4% of the time, but them’s the breaks. Taking a wait and see attitude towards this son of Smarty Jones.
Bicuspid’s Seattle Mambo will load next to last and has landed a very nice jockey for this weekend. He has two wins to his name, including a stakes, but has yet to post a speed fig above 80. He’s worth a second look, though, because this son of Kingmambo is bred to go all day long and has never been past 6 furlongs. Expect him to perk up quite a bit as he stretches out. The combination of a great jock and better distance could make a huge difference for him.
Finally there’s House of Leaves, Rocky79’s young Limehouse colt. He has a win and two seconds to his name and is capable of putting up some nice speeds. His speed has improved nicely with each race, but he seems to be struggling to win in allowance company. Seemed to enjoy going 8 panels in his last race. Might get up for a paycheck this weekend.