Bluegrass Derby Winner Godbless This Mess Headlines Grade I Travelers Field

The Bluegrass Derby winner, GODBLESS THIS MESS, will make his return to the racetrack here in New York for the Grade I Travelers Stakes, which will be run at a mile and a quarter on a fast track Saturday. This follows a three-month plus layoff since that colt came up short in the Middle Jewel Stakes. He will not be the favorite, though, as some others in this field have put together some nice efforts during the summer months:

(1) DEN NOT DON (owner graywolf47, 17/1) is an Oklahoma-bred colt who made some noise late on the Triple Crown trail, finishing a solid third in The New Yorker back in June. Before then, he had not made a whole lot of noise on the trail earlier in the year, struggling in the Wooden Indian and the Chicago Derby. While he has done better at some of the longer distances, it doesn’t appear to me that he’ll be good enough to keep up with the top horses in this field.

(2) GOLDEN CALIFORNIA (owner alysheba11, 6/1) will go off as one of the co-favorites in here, despite a disappointing effort last time out in the Eddie Haskell Stakes down the road in New Jersey, where he finished ninth. He had won three stakes races in a row come into that race, including two open-length victories in a Group III and Grade I. To that end, the Haskell performance is a bit of a headscratcher. There was no change in distance, but maybe he didn’t like being more toward the back of the pack. Look for a rebound here, although he’ll probably want to be closer to the pace.

(3) GOLD WAR FRONT (owner dkstables16, 10/1) has taken the summer off so far. He has been consistent in 2018, winning two races and placing in two others in four total starts. He romped in the Sand Castle Classic, and then ran a competitive second in the Bluegrass Derby. He has yet to finish off the board in his career so far, and take note that jockey T Ace takes the mount again. If he’s ready off the layoff, he could be dangerous in here at double digit odds.

(4) GEM AND A HALF (owner gobucs, 9/1) is an Ohio-bred beast, winning 8 out of 10 career starts. Early in his career, he was dominating local bred races, but trainer gobucs took him into stakes company after a dominating open allowance performance in March. The result was an open-length win in an ungraded stakes, and then a narrow win in the Grade II Buckeye Derby at his home track. His last start was a Grade I in the Clerk of Scales Stakes, where he finished second. Can an Ohio-bred win the Travers? This gelding certainly has the talent to.r

(5) OTTO OVER EASY (owner kaner12, 16/1) is trying to make a nice comeback off a lengthy layoff, as he has not been at the track since he finished a weakening fifth here in the New Yorker back in early June. This was a somewhat unexpected finish after claiming gold in the Equinics and putting up a solid third-place effort in the Bluegrass Derby. He could certainly be ready to spring back and take the next step, but I want to see that step first before I put any money behind him. This is a solid field, and he’ll have to take a big step forward.

(6) GODBLESS THIS MESS (owner plugger03, 9/1), the Bluegrass Derby winner and Florida Derby runner-up, is looking to bounce back after not firing early enough in the Middle Jewel Stakes. He will not be the favorite in this race, but that is mostly because of his recent layoff. The colt by Distorted Humor out of Hall of Fame mare MAGPIES CAT certainly has the pedigree to back up the results from earlier in the year. The question is whether he has the talent to take that next step up to where many of these horses are. There is not a ton of pace to close into in this field, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he has trouble closing like in the Middle Jewel.

(7) MADE A FUNNY (owner vinery, 14/1) is searching for his first graded victory, having only hit the board once in a graded stakes race – the Grade I Corkscrew Stakes back in April. He was not a factor in his following two starts, the Middle Jewel and the Grade II Liar over this surface last month. He ended last month with an allowance race at 10 furlongs over the New York surface, although that win is not all that impressive on paper – he was only racing one non-CPU horse in that field. I don’t know what to make of that race, but I’m just not convinced that he’ll be able to be a factor in this race.

(8) OUTBACK BARGAINS (owner outback, 10/1) will try to conquer the race that his father, American Pharoah, could not win. He was pretty successful in the road to the Bluegrass Derby, but didn’t fire at all in the Derby itself. He does have a nice comeback on the resumé last month in the Grade I Clerk of Scales, where he finished third. Jockey M Scott gets the mount for the fourth straight race, and will be looking to get back in the winner’s circle again like they were in the Corkscrew. That last race shows that there’s hope to get back there, and the pedigree is a winning one.

(9) MONGO LIKE CANDY (owner champions6, 6/1) has put together two blistering races as far as the SP numbers are concerned – a 115 in a close second at the Buckeye Derby (to GEM AND A HALF) and a 114 last month in the Swamps Stakes on the West Coast. So, he’s essentially been running better SP numbers in Grade II races that others in here have run in Grade Is. The son of Candy Ride didn’t race in the Triple Crown following a disappointing finish in the Wooden Indian over this surface back in April. With that in mind, he didn’t take to this surface in April – is that enough to play against here? It’s very difficult to look past those past two races, and there isn’t much early pace in here. If he can set an easy tempo early, look out.

(10) ZAP IT OUT (owner basspatrol, 14/1) has been all or nothing in his career so far, winning 4 out of 8 starts and finishing fifth or worse in the other four. His best racing came earlier in the spring, when he took the Florida Derby convincingly back in March. He could not muster much in the Bluegrass Derby or The New Yorker, finishing seventh and sixth, respectively. That Florida Derby race would make him competitive here, but I haven’t seen enough in his most recent form that would entice me to put him on top here.

(11) NOMADS (owner DC1, 10/1) was on the URC Triple Crown Trail, finishing a solid second in the Universal Derby before fading in the Universal Preakness. He did come back with a win in a URC stakes race last month, but that was not a strong field on paper – the third-place finisher was over 16 lengths back. It was a solid SP number, but it’s hard to figure out how to use a race like that. He does have a second-place finish in a Grade II in March, and he does seem to like this longer, 10-furlong distance. He’s a possibility in here.

(12) OUGHT TO PREVAIL (owner newarkde, 9/1) comes into this race off a very impressive win here in New York at the end of last month, winning the Grade II Shiny Gem Stakes by open lengths. If whatever he figured out in that race carries over to this race, he’ll certainly be a factor. Prior to the Shiny Gem, he was winless in stakes races, and had barely gotten above an SP number of 100. The son of Malibu Moon seems to be ok with going 10 furlongs, and that Shiny Gem win was over this New York surface. He certainly looks like a contender.

(13) UNSUBTLE (owner nepenthe30, 9/1) has been consistent this year, but is still in search of a Grade I victory. After having some success on the Triple Crown Trail in California, he finished second in the Middle Jewel Stakes. Jockey K Ledwith, who piloted UNSUBTLE in the California Derby, gets the reins again here. After flattening out in the spring, he took a nice step up in the Haskell, finishing a solid third in that race. This is the colt’s first trip to New York, and if he can build off that improvement in the Haskell, he could certainly be a factor in here.

(14) MUSICFOR THEFALLEN (owner blankpoin6, 12/1) started his career here in New York, breaking his maiden and winning an allowance race here last summer. Since leaving the Empire State, he has yet to record another win. Part of the reason is that he’s been racing against very good horses in graded stakes races. Since finishing second in the California Derby, he has not hit the board in his three subsequent starts – the Bluegrass, New Yorker and the Haskell. The son of Grade I-winner THREE FORTY THREE, he’ll need to really improve to get a piece of the finish in this race, especially since the pace scenario probably doesn’t favor him.

My Picks:

(12) OUGHT TO PREVAIL, 9/1 – Had a monster race as this track last time out, and shouldn’t be bothered by the distance. His pace-stalking style should help.

(9) MONGO LIKE CANDY, 6/1 – Has been on fire of late, but not sure he’ll love the stretch to 10 furlongs. He’s been caught in some 9-furlong races, and that could happen here if the early pace is honest. If it’s a soft pace, he could sneak out with an easy win.

(4) GEM AND A HALF, 9/1 – About as good of an Ohio-bred as I’ve seen. Beat co-favorite MONGO LIKE CANDY in the Buckeye Derby, but got beat by a filly in his last race that just got beat solidly. My only concern here is with the stretchout in distance.

(3) GOLD WAR FRONT, 10/1 – Wanted to pick him higher, but he is a dead closer, and I’m not sure this race is going to set up well for him. If the early speed falls apart in the stretch, expect him to be a factor.

Good luck to all!