The $500,000 Rocky Stakes, a grade I sprint for three-year-olds, is scheduled for Saturday in Kentucky. I look at the inspiration for this race as a combination of two influences. You have Rocky Balboa, who is a film icon who showed the heart of a champion over three good movies and two fairly rotten sequels. And you have Rocky the Flying Squirrel, who was a little naïve perhaps but he was intelligent and very fast. In this field of fourteen sophomores going six furlongs, you have a group of fine horses with a lot of heart, a lot of smarts, and a lot of speed, making this a fine renewal of this Grade I.
Though New York has a similar Grade I for the three-year-old sprint division this weekend, this remains an evenly matched, contentious bunch of sprinters. Here’s the field, in order of their sprint division ranking (and if you’re like me, looking at this you’re bound to have the theme from “Rocky”, “Gonna Fly Now”, running through your head as you read).
Phantom Wings (#16), for the topicount stable, is a Grade III winner from last year who’s found sprinting to be his niche in Sim life. A son of Fusaichi Pegasus-Diving For Saint, by Saint Ballado, he’s expected to lurk near the early speed here, and has used those tactics to good advantage in his three stakes wins this season. His figs have largely been above reproach, with a career-best 107 two back, and there’s very little with this trainer that is second-class. His last, a restricted Smackdown race, wasn’t one of his best, as he went out way too fast on the lead and ended up fading behind a stampede in seventh, but there’s enough early speed in here that he should be able to rate comfortably. He seems prepped to give his best effort, and he loves six panels.
Afluke (#51) is not. This homebred son of Afleet has ability for the cylla stable, with two stakes wins among his five career wins. He’s got some early speed, but his best move is to sit in mid-pack in the opening stages, and make a middle move on the turn. Admittedly, he needs a certain spark as he’s been winless since March, though he’s hit the board six of seven starts since then. And his numbers put him at the back of the pack of favorites here. But he does have heart, and likely a sharp pace to chase in this race. With all but one start this year earning a paycheck, he’s a viable play in your trifecta wager.
Ancient World (#65) has an amazing nine wins in twelve starts, and has never finished off the board while racing under the silks of kevoman4. This homebred son of Silver Ghost won his first eight races before finishing second in a Mexican allowance in June. Despite a stellar record in his short career of twelve races, though, he’s not broken through at stakes level, with only a second and a third in two stakes starts. His lack of seasoning at a higher level has not necessarily hindered his development, as his figures continue to rise into the low-to-mid-100s range. Still, with starts coming at such locales as Mexico, Wyoming, Jamaica and D.C., one has to wonder about his preparedness against the bigger guns in the division. He’s hit the board every time, for a reason, though, and he’s very sharp from the gate; expect him to go to the front, and be tested for his courage late.
Hill Country (#68) is trainer shockwave6’s 5-1 favorite in the field, and he’s been earning his stripes this summer as a star sprinter. This son of Mountain Cat-Iced Mocha, by Twining, has won six of ten starts in 2005, ranging from 5 furlongs to a mile-and-a-sixteenth, all using the same closing kick. His last was a come-from-behind in the Curious Arc at Wyoming, which earned him a figure of 107, and the pace scenario is likely to include enough speed to make a late move very viable. He’ll be the one to beat in the stretch, in that case.
Rebelling (#69), from corka, is the lone filly in the field, with four wins in nineteen starts, and she’s been banging heads with the colts almost from the start of her career, even beating them in an allowance earlier in the year. She’s faced them in a few stakes races, most notably a thirteenth in the Grade II Sand Castle Derby, but her speed figures have yet to cross the magical 100 barrier. Even against fillies, though this daughter of Wild Again-Sunshine, by Cryptoclearance, does own a stakes win in Spain in June, she’s been competitive, just not competitive enough, most recently finishing seventh in the Grade I Exam last out. She’ll like to come from off the pace, and she’d likely prefer a wet track for her best, but the fast pace and her ambitious placement in this spot are some serious obstacles to overcome.
Casterly Rock(IRE) (#113) draws the outside post and the circuit’s best rider in D Givens. This trainee of grrm has four wins in eleven starts, all wins coming this year. And his last was a doozy; with a swift kick on the turn, he took his restricted Smackdown race in 1:08 4/5, giving him a sizzling fig of 111, the best speed figure in the bunch. He’s versatile enough to go to the front, or hang in the pack as needed. Here, his outside post would likely hinder any shot at the front-runners, but between his varying abilities, his sparkling figures, and his pedigree, this son of Giant’s Causeway(IRE) figures on being there at the end. Only concern: was that 111 legit, or will he bounce back to earth this time around?
On Probation(IRE) (#119) is the entry from the stables of vegasjef01, and this stakes-winning son of Black Tie Affair(IRE)-Amandas Reward, by Forty Niner, is on a serious tear this year, having earned a paycheck in all ten 2005 races he started. He’s spent a large amount of his sophomore campaign on the front end, but has the ability to hold some speed in reserve until it’s called for. His numbers place him closer to the second-tier in this field, but he’s a late-developing horse who’s managed to find a way in every ’05 start to pick up a check, and those horses are good to have in your stable.
Bubble Toes (#152) has won two stakes races this year for inhalers, but his early-season specialty was routes, with wins at a mile and a mile-and-a-sixteenth for this son of Aptitude-Evil Gold, by Java Gold. He’s bred to go long, and likes to come from off the pace; one suspects this is a prep for a fall campaign of mile races instead of the hunt for a new career, but don’t rule out a late run in the stretch for this one. Nevertheless, his past performances hint that he’s better off on the mile side of the classic division.
Allie Bally (#157), a son of Machiavellian for the arning stables, has seven wins in his career, five of them coming in ’05. Most of his expertise has come versus allowance fields, with his stakes results looking somewhat weak in this Grade I. He likes to come from the rear, but has yet to have a speed figure cracking 100, and most of his wins come at distances shorter than today’s race (though he has won up through seven-and-a-half furlongs); he might be spotted a little higher than what he’s capable of here.
Airmick Nair(IRE) (#195) is a son of El Prado(IRE)-Her Award, by Kris S., for the kyclocker6 stable. There’s some speed here, but a lot of his success has been going in longer sprints than today’s race. His numbers come up a might short, but he does have a 105 fig two back, and recent experiments at being rated have yielded promising results over the summer. He’s an improving horse, one whose best efforts might still be coming a start or two in the future, but this start might go forward towards determining how far he can go.
Sunday’s Storm(JPN) (#294) runs for worldbeatr, and this son of Sunday Break(JPN)-True Competitor, by War Chant, appears to be a horse of differing abilities. Equally at home on turf or dirt, he won three times at two, all on the grass. Switching to the dirt beginning this year, he’s won three times, and has begun to crack figures above 100 with regularity. His last was a pretty-good return to the lawn, closing for sixth in a Grade II turf sprint at Longchamp (earning a 99), and could act as a solid prep for this. He prefers to sit mid-pack, but might like an extra furlong; how good a prep that turf race last out might have been could hold the key. With the speed in here, and his preference for added ground, he should be along late.
Uncharted Dream (#359), a son of Benchmark for pisanor, comes in off a four-and-a-half furlong wire job in allowance company, and certainly wants the lead, as most of his efforts have him achieving the role of main speed. But there’s a lot of quality speed horses to compete with here, his speed figures have never broke 90, let alone 100, and his two previous stakes attempts were disappointments as a juvenile. Shorter sprints might be more his speed, and his placement here certainly smacks of being ambitious.
My Sheba T (#479) is stakes-paced twice this year, but winless since Christmas Day last year. This son of Kinshasa-Awesome Assassin, by Alysheba, for tsyndicate, should be sitting just off the leaders, and his figures aren’t bad, per se; they’re just not connected to a win, and they’re only now beginning to edge up over 100. His previous tries in graded company were mismatches at classic distances, but today’s sprint might appear to give him some relief; still, while he is rounding back into form he had as a juvenile, it may take an extra furlong for him to make a solid run at this level.
Cat Of The Tail (#636), a son of Tale Of The Cat-Storm Tar, by Danehill, has the silks of graywolf3, and a resume that reads more like one of a specialist at classic distances. He’s faced some of the best Sim sophomore routers this year, with some very positive results, like his third in the Grade III Chief Snow, or his pace-setting effort in the Grade II Captain Hook, where he faded to seventh late. His maiden win did come at today’s distance, and his last was a very nice allowance in which he was second (which earned him a very respectable 106 figure). Turning this one back into a sprinter from his previous efforts at routing is not often an overnight success; instead it may take a few starts to truly acclimate himself to the shorter race, the faster pace scenarios, and the stiffer competition. He’ll be close early on, and holds a class edge over some of these, but it’s a question mark whether six panels is long enough for this good-looking colt.
My selections:
- Phantom Wings
- Casterly Rock(IRE)
- Hill Country
- Ancient World
- On Probation(IRE)
Good luck, and happy Labor Day.