Cedora D Stakes

Welcome to Chicago for the first of todays featured Grade I races. This one’s for the ladies over 9.5f on the turf course. A small field of 7 but at least that means that most have a chance of taking home the money. Lets look at the runners-

MOSTLY IN BROWN(IRE) (THEATRICAL(IRE) x HALO x SEEKING THE GOLD)
Bred for distance, this one’s won three of her last four, including two stakes but they have all been at 11f plus and todays drop back to 9.5f looks a problem. She has won an allowance over this trip this year but only ran an 81 sp over 9f recently. At this level she will not have the cruising speed for this trip and will struggle today- even the 12/1 on the morning line looks a little generous.

EMPIRE REEF (EMPIRE MAKER x MILL REEF x HALO)
Has a couple of really good Grade I ruuns at 9f and 10f to her name recently with her last run best ignored as 11f was clearly too far. She can run in any style, with her Grade I win coming after leading all the way and her second place coming from way back. That makes her very dangerous and she must be a serious threat today.

DEPUTY HUNTER (DEPUTY MINISTER x A.P. INDY x MT. LIVERMORE)
Multiple Graded winner including a Grade I over 9f latest and is todays morning line favourite based onb that. She will be competative and dangerous, as she runs from just off the pace and therefore should have all moves covered. My only doubt is that she has looked at her best around 8-8.5f  although there has only been a slight drop in sp’s at 9f. This is another half a furlong again though and that may prove her undoing.

CAPTIVATING (VINDICATION x MR. PROSPECTOR x SADLER’S WELLS)
A lot of nice stakes runs recently including at this trip but her last run may hold most relevance. It was over 11f and produced her joint best sp of 106 and she was staying on into second there. There is a lot of stamina in her pedigree and 12f looks ideal so there has to be a big question mark about the drop back to 9.5f. She has yet to win a Graded race either which also puts her at a disadvantage here. Another who may find the principles gone before she can land a blow.

WHISPERING SOUND (MISWAKI x EL GRAN SENOR x HAIL THE PIRATES)
Has a recent Grade II win at 8.5f this season but that has looked to be the absolute limit of her stamina as she has looked best at 6-7f previously. Expect her to be in the front rank early but to fade in the last quarter. She may hold on for a top five but only because some of the other will be catching her too late.

HIGH RANSOM (RED RANSOM x IRISH RIVER(FR) x DRONE)
The lightest raced in the field but another who will find this too far. She has won an allowanc eat this trip but there is a bif difference between an allowanc eand a Grade I and she will struggle. May prove best at 7-8f despite some of her better sp’s being at 9f- I think that’s due to natural improvement rather than the trip.

HEAVEN’S RAGE (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x AWESOME AGAIN x EASY GOER)
Another lightly raced sort but at least this one has her trip today. Problem here though is that she has only one recent sp over 100 and that looks to have been a blip, as she hasn’t really got neat that before or since. The balance of her form leaves her miles behind some of these and the 9/1 on the morning line looks way too short. Will struggle big time today.

CONCLUSION- Overall this looks a race between the front two on the morning line and I’ll take EMPIRE REEF to beat DEPUTY HUNTER, mainly due to trip doubts about the latter.