LOVE IS A BATTLEFIELD

LOVE IS A BATTLEFIELD & HONEYMOONERS UNITE IN IRELAND

WE ARE YOUNG!  HEARTACHE TO HEARTACHE!! (*sing with me*)  The party has shifted from Bourbon Street, Louisiana to the tall pints of Irish Guinness & shots of Baileys’.  What are we celebrating you ask?  Simsters around the world are living it up in celebration of the 9^th Anniversary of this great game!  Let’s tip our cups to the awesome creators of our favorite game!  I even wrote a little ditty for this special occasion… but you’d have to fly over to Louisiana to listen in on it. J

This is a good group of upcoming fillies; they will be tuff to pick from.  I give you my analysis and thoughts of each horse so now it’s up to you to pick the top finishers!!  Good luck and have a great weekend!! 

PP 1: OPELINO(JPN), 3yoF by T. M. Opera O x (Trempolino x Secretariat)

Bred by: dancigar                   Jockey: M Russell (362: 38-32-51, 10%)

Trained by: phatpharm            

        Odds: 4/1                             Rank: 351

Opelino is a very consistent filly with tons of stamina. She was purchased for a mere $10,000 in a claiming race a few months ago by phatpharm.  Her record with her newest trainer phatpharm is 6; 3-2-1.  I’m sure he’s banking on her to add another top 3 finish to that record – the odds look good.

Two weeks ago Opelino went up against 3 other competitors over 12f in a starter allowance.  She toyed with the field winning by a leisurely 4 lengths at even odds.  The speed figure posted was an unpressured 73.  Jockey B Tate was quoted saying, “I didn’t even have to cool her off after that one!  Just a little bit of dust on her pretty like star and that was it.

Two back before (just 6 weeks ago) that was a small field of 6 in the 9f North On The Que Special Stakes.  The filly rated well off the two frontrunners before making her move down the lane.  She was only 2^nd best that day, losing by 2 lengths, but posting a 94sp.

Go back one more race to another starter allowance against 4 other fillies.  The race distance was 10f.  Opelino was even money.  She broke fast, pressuring the initial frontrunner before taking command down the lane and winning by 1 ¾ lengths with an 82sp.

The main knock on her is that the largest field she’s faced in the past 8 races consisted of 7 other horses, but that doesn’t really matter Saturday since there are only 4 other fillies in the field.  She seems to be running on a ‘every-two-weeks’ schedule which is fine if the horse likes that.  Could fatigue play a factor in this race, though?  She’s had a long 3yo campaign thus far this year.  However, I wouldn’t cross her off your betting list just yet.

PP 2: EGYPTIAN PRINCESS(KY), 3yoF by A.P. Indy x (Kris S. x Machiavellian)

        Bred & Trained by: bigdog        Jockey: A Reed (544: 92-89-65, 17%)

        Odds: Even                          Rank: 226

 I love her pedigree.  Bigdog’s trainee Egyptian Princess definitely deserves the favoritism having won 5 of her 7 races as a 3yo.  Throw out her 3yo debut since she obviously did not like the dirt and you have a filly that has a great record of 6; 5-1-0.  She is 3 for 3 over 9F’s turf.

I had the chance to speak to her exercise rider this week.  She had nothing, but great things to say about the filly.  “She’s really developed this summer – filling out in all the right places.” 

I asked her what she thought of the filly’s chances in her stakes debut. “Ooh, she’ll have that thing wrapped up by the 7f pole.  Egypt has learned how to settle down and relax which really opens up her stride a lot more.  She’s amazing to ride and pure poetry in motion!” 

My last question was regarding her sole turf defeat two back.  “Yeah, that was partially our fault.  We should have checked her over better.  She had been training real well up to the (10f) race.  But down the lane she didn’t have her usual power.  That evening she didn’t finish her feed.  The vet came over and checked on her.  She had a little bug, but nothing big.  We let Egypt rest a week and then got her back on the training oval.”

Well that makes me feel good about her chances.  But at those odds she isn’t worth the bet unless you want a souvenir – who knows, she could turn into a future HOFer, it is Sim History month!

PP 3: MOLLY PITCHER(KY), 3yoF by Dixieland Band x (Lord At War x Lyphard)

        Bred & Trained by: topicount4            Jockey: E C Doyle (458: 54-60-66, 12%)

        Odds: 3/1                                     Rank: 233

Molly Pitcher is one filly that could pull the wool over Egyptian Princess’s eyes.  She is untested past 8.5f and is now starting to come into her own after a light 3yo campaign.  If she can get the first jump on the favorite you may see a nice upset.

The downside of this filly is that she does not have a good track record in stakes races.  Her lone 3yo wins came in allowance company.  She was injured 3 back in the G3 Si’ Senortia Special.  Her return race was the 8f  Secret The Secret(IRE) Stakes in South Dakota.  The filly would break a little rank, sitting closer to the lead than her trainer had planned.  Molly moved into contention as they turned for home, but another filly would shine that day, sweeping past Molly and taking command.  Molly Pitcher finished a well beaten 3^rd with a 94sp.

Next stop (last time out) was Alabama for the 8.5f Cold Minstrel Bonanza Stakes.  The clouds burst opened that morning and torrential downpours soaked the track.  Molly Pitcher was ready with buckets.  She handled the slower going like a pro, just running out of ground late, finishing 2^nd by 3 ¼ lengths with a 91sp.

Three weeks have gone by.  Rumors have it that Molly Pitcher is training brilliantly right now.  She’s ready to make a big statement after her injury 3 back.  Keep an eye on her.

PP 4: AWESOME VISION(KY), 3yoF by Awesome Again x (Point Given x Danzig)

        Bred & Trained by: seppy         Jockey: Z Kentucky (570: 123-96-70, 22%)

        Odds: 2/1                             Rank: 141

Awesome Vision is a luminous creature standing 17 hands.  She has stamina running thickly through her veins.  And she appears to be in a real good spot to repeat her win 4 back (the La Cecil Challenge Stakes).  The filly loves to run on the front-end.  But trainer Seppy has been trying to teach her to rate off the leaders in order to conserve some of that fiery speed for the finishing drive.

Her last three starts have come at distances 9 ½ f’s to 10f’s.  Her best finish of those three was a 2^nd in the 10f Lexington Gulch Challenge Stakes where she lost by 3 lengths with an 87sp.  Her fastest speed figure thus far is a 92 last time out in the 9 ½ f Senorita K. Bonanza Stakes where she finished 4rth after being passed in the lane.

If you go all the way back to four starts ago in the La Cecil Challenge Stakes you will see an amazing display of speed plus stamina.  The filly tore off to a 7 length lead at one time and then coasted home to a 2 ¾ length victory.  I think if she opens up a lead like that on Saturday the lights will be out before they even need to be turned on.  Hand her the prize and we’ll go home.

PP 5: DE CARLO(ENG), 3yoF by Tipsy Creek x (Mon Tresor x Mister Baileys)

        Bred & Trained by: teaplanter    Jockey: W Moxley (72: 4-8-9, 6%)

        Odds: 99/1                           Rank: N/A

Well, here’s the loooooongshot that really has no chance at all.  But you can’t blame her owner for getting a few easy stakes points for 5^th place.  Basically, she’s just here for the party à Up tipsy creek with Baileys & Guinness.  And I’m fine with lettin’ her have her fun.  She’ll stay out of trouble in the back of the field.  Maybe she’ll learn a thing or two from watching the other four work.

She does have one win to her credit… a 7f restricted allowance race against 3 other fillies at odds of 2/1.  She won by 1 ¼ length with a 58sp.  Her best speed rating to date is a 62 where she finished 8^th (out of 8) beaten by 38 lengths… her odds were an astonishing 348/1 (no that is not a typo).

The trainer might earn a few more breeding points if he runs her in lower claiming events, but who am I to judge… to each his/her own. J

MY THOUGHTS:

Awesome Vision will open up a large uncontested lead.  Opelino will be coming along in 2^nd followed closely by Molly Pitcher and Egyptian Princess.  De Carlo may be able to hang with the pack for the first 2 furlongs before falling out.  As they approach the last turn, the closers will be making their move, Opelino & Molly Pitcher moving as one towards the well-established leader.  Egyptian Princess will be 2 or 3 lengths behind them but by the time they straighten out down the lane Egypt will have devoured that gap plus some.  If Awesome Pitcher doesn’t get too far out in front I think Egyptian Princess will take the win from her.  The other two will duke it out for the show.  De Carlo a distant last.

QUICK OVERVIEW OF THE FIELD AT THIS DISTANCE…