Kirby’s Best v. Rural Law: Round 3
Big races draw big horses and this weekend’s Grade 1 Owner’s Stakes is no exception. The weather is good and the turf is firm, and the twelve-horse field for the $500,000 affair has drawn the best and the brightest of the sophomore marathon class.
The most brilliant of these leading lights is Kirby’s Best Yet, a strapping son of Dynaformer who sat out almost his entire two-year-old season. He stepped quietly into the gate for that first race, but he’s been making nothing but noise since. He’s been first to the finish line every time out: nine straight wins, including a the Sydney Derby and the Derby de English. The scariest thing about this colt is that he’s never even been tested. He finishes well in hand, lengths in front of the place horse. B. Renfroe ought not disgrace him.
It must be tough on Rural Law. The Law Society colt, in any other year, would be the star in the division. As it stands, he’s number two despite a brilliant win the Adelaide Derby over Exclusive Habitat, who went on to win his next two starts. Rural Law came back in the Derby de English and again ran gamely, but Kirby’s Best Yet beat him nearly six lengths. He’s been second twice since then, both in small stakes fields, with good numbers that Son Carby Lodge must be clinging to as evidence that Kirby’s Best Yet didn’t strip their star of his winning ways. N. Linville is having a breakout year, and that will help.
Seventh-ranked Galactic Bomber, son of Orientate and Grade 2-placed Solar Storm, is another looking to make amends for that sound beating in the Derby de English. He was third that day, passing horses steadily but unable to make up ground on the winner. It was his only start in graded company; he’s spent more of his three-year-old career beating up on listed stakes horses. He rebounded from the Derby de English to pair up the 100+ speed rating earned there in a solid second at ten furlongs, and stretches back out here.
This makes Elvis Victory the first horse in our field who’s never seen the champ before. It would be unfair to say he’s never seen this class of horse at all: he did best Grade 1-winning millionaire Shadow Creek in the SIM Sports Darby Prep. But the Owner’s Stakes will be his first race in graded company. He has won listed stakes–three of them–and though 11 furlongs was his longest race so far, he raced it like he’d be happy to see a little more.
He shares his 8/1 odds with El Kursaal, a son of Unbridled’s Song from a stakes-placed A.P. Indy mare. The roan colt had an undistinguished main track career at two, but picked up when switched to the dirt and a longer route of ground. He’s never won a stakes, but he’s hit the podium a few times and was an undaunted third in the Smackdown III race at this distance, as well as fifth in the Adelaide Derby. H. McSpeed takes the mount, and his dodgy statistics are some concern, given the necessity of carefully timing El Kursaal’s fearsome closing kick.
Thirteenth-ranked Dynacity (Dynaformer x Carson City mare) has won just one stakes race, a listed affair that he led gate to wire over a good-rated turf course. That sort of race isn’t atypical (though he’s won from off the pace, too); he often flashes good early speed, and last time out led through three calls of the Lots of Luck before finishing third in a very solid field. That race came versus older horses and the 98 speed rating earned he earned there was his best yet. It of some concern how easily the top two blew past him–but both are class horses, and the mileage may leave him tighter when he faces other three-year-olds Saturday.
Alum Bay, representative of sire High Chaparral and of the Super Stables collective, was another late-starting horse who’s come into his own recently. He beat El Kursaal in the listed Old Brother Handicap. Last time out, he ran into the buzzsaw of Kirby’s Best Yet and Rural Law, but was best of the rest. He adds a furlong in this spot and it’s worth nothing that his only other 12-furlong try was the Seventh King Eddie; he ran well for fourth there, and the firm track in Ontario may move him up.
Friction has a lot to live up to. Undistinguished racemare Allen’s Minstrels has produced two graded stakes winners already, including Rebellion, by War Chant and thus a full brother two Friction. He’s off to a good start, with credible front-running allowance wins and a victory–outfront-running front-runner Pleasant War–in that 12-furlong Smackdown III race where El Kursaal ran third. The 100 speed rating there was a jump from his previous best, but that sort of improvement is hardly unprecedented, and the practice in scooting past horses with good early speed should help him out with Dynacity in the field.
Count two for War Chant: he’s also represented by Twelve Inches, son of the graded stakes-winning and -producing February Storm. He took seven tries to break his maiden, finally doing it in an 11-furlong event over a yielding turf course, then another three to repeat the win–but pulled that off impressively with a 101 speed rating. 16 furlongs proved beyond his reach in the Queen’s Flower Pot, but 12 looks temptingly manageable, and the outside post shouldn’t give him too much trouble since he’s happy to drop back anyway.
Down on the inside is the second Super Stables entry, Lightninginabottle. The boldly-named son of Seeking The Gold was a lackluster seventh in the Derby de English and fourth in the Mechanical Redhead behind Kirby’s Best Yet, Rural Law, and Alum Bay. He’ll need to make amends for that here. His last win came three back at 11 furlongs, a distance he’s shown that he likes, and it was a stylish one in a small listed stakes. Speed numbers may be a notch slow, and it’s hard to love the way he was backing up in his last two.
Spelling-challenged Waffel House–by More Than Ready and out of a Metfield mare–hopes to score one for modest female families. He’s done a credible job thus far, working through his allowance conditions, and stamped his ticket here with an NW4L win last time out at the distance. It was a workmanlike race and I wouldn’t kick him out of my barn, but this is a big step up.
And the last horse in the field is the interesting Firewing, by cheap sire Winged Love. He has just one stakes winner from five small crops, and that’s Firewing, who won the restricted Bronx Special last time out on the dirt. He’s only tried the turf twice, pairing up 92 speed ratings and wins versus allowance horses at 11 and 12 furlongs. He hasn’t put a foot wrong, but 24/1 seems fair given the class hike involved.