Minnesota Bluer Then Velvet Special Stake Preview
Overview: Under normal circumstances a field of ( 4 ) two year old fillies wouldn’t raise an eyebrow from most race fans. However this years offering of the “Bluer Then Velvet Special” Stake, a ( 5 ½ ) furlong event, contested over the firm Minnesota turf course is shaping up to be arguably one of the most contentious events of the 2 year old filly season. Trainer Bigsky5’s MONTANA PRIZE has been installed as the Luke-warm 8/5 favorite over trainer Dilaika’s ELPHABA 2/1, with Tejanoroy’s SEATTLE PEACE and Thedude’s HIGH CLASS GIRL , both listed at 5/2. The odds say it all, on the surface, there is really very little separating the four contenders. Let’s dig a bit deeper …
The field:
PP-01
Class Rating: 11.35 Speed Rating: .065
Training: ( 3 ) weeks since last race 70,000 Stake ( 4th )
Overview: Nicely bred filly has Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer connections, so Montana Prize may take to the turf on 1st asking, however a Stake field with this caliber of foes is a tough nut to crack. Her initial dirt speed ratings were very impressive, but they didn’t allow her to score in Stakes company on her 1st dirt effort, while she no doubt has a “bright” future and certainly belongs in this level of company on the dirt. I’m sure how well Montana Prize competes Saturday will determine where Bigsky5 will place in the future. Prediction ( 4th )
PP-02
Class Rating: 9.87 Speed Rating: .445
Training: ( 7 ) weeks since last race 75,000 Stake ( 2nd )
Overview: Although she’s winless on the turf, this daughter of
PP-03 HIGH CLASS GIRL ( 5/2 ) Trainer THEDUDE … Jockey Pe Ingram ( .011 )
Class Rating: 10.87 Speed Rating: .010
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race 65,000 Stake ( 2nd )
Overview: Has a good stretch kick, her stake placing was in a short field of four, but one that she beat was Stake-placed so you have to respect her chances here, also that was High Class Girl’s first try on the grass, so she is likely to move forward off that race. High Class Girl is well bred for the turf … High Yield x Miesque’s Son … I think that High Class Girl would like a bit more distance and will rally here for a short slice. Prediction ( 3rd )
PP-04 ELPHABA ( 2/1 ) Trainer DILAIKA … Jockey K. Bowen ( .165 )
Class Rating; 11.48 Speed Rating: 171
Training: ( 13 ) weeks since last race 11,200 Non-Condition Allowance ( 1st )
Overview: This nicely bred daughter of Storm Boot is ( 3 ) for ( 3 ) on the turf, she loves to “fly” in the stretch. Elphaba has never been headed in the stretch, passing all ( 8 ) horses she has trailed in the final furlong. Elphaba is taking on Stakes competition for the first time but I certainly think she can handle it. Trainer Dilaika has her well rested and I have a feeling that Elphaba will make the contest very interesting at the wire. Prediction ( 2nd )
Race Preview: It’s going to be extremely interesting to see which, if any, of the ( 3 ) closers in this field tries to challenge Seattle Prize early, if they don’t they will be very hard pressed to catch her in this short of a race. I expect to see both Elphaba and High Class Girl flying late, if neither sacrifices themselves chasing Seattle Prize early. Montana Prize is the “wild” card, maybe Bigsky5 will abandon her usual dirt style and gun her early as she’s certainly not short on stamina! My guess is that Seattle Prize’s speed and class will prevail, but I won’t be surprised if it’s real close at the wire!
Keys to Class Rating: The lower the number the better the CLASS rating.
Keys to Speed Rating: The higher the number the better the “EARLY” speed.