Close field for Smackdown 3yo classic
We don’t often get to see a group of really good horses competing in an ordinary owner-restricted race. The ninth race on California’s card, however, is not an ordinary race. The race is a stake for 3yo colts going 10 panels on the main track for a half-million bucks. The quality of this field is, in a word, excellent. We have three graded winners, several more graded-placed and stakes-winners and two more riding nice long win streaks. It doesn’t get much better than this.
This is the second running of this particular race (it was not run at Smackdown I). Last year Vermont representative Two Twelve took home the trophy with a beautiful front-running 2 1/4 length win. The 2:01.4 time was quite good. This year’s winner, however, should beat that mark.
The GR Simsters are represented by the field favorite, Passing Stone. The 6-1 odds don’t reflect his connections; he’s trained out of the jimcougar stable by the famed and feared Lennbrenner. Stone had a hell of a spring campaign winning his first five starts, and lost the Bluegrass Derby by heartbreaking headbob.The Vindication colt didn’t play much of a factor in the rest of the Triple Jewel, but the six-week-break he’s ending here should see him extremely rested and fit for a tremendous race. Stone loves to be on the lead, but can stalk if he’s outrun to the first turn. Fast horse + crafty connections = fear this horse.
The 7-1 horse, Tribal War, runs for NWRC. He’s one of those good War Chant babies, clearly an inspired breeding by trainer layoff. This will be War’s first go at 10 furlongs, but the distance won’t faze him a bit. It would be rather hard for the colt to be intimidated when he just smoked a listed stake at 11 by over four lengths. War generally likes to sit midpack or so down the backstretch. So far that tactic has worked pretty well, helping him amass over $200k with four wins in 13 starts.
A pair of GR Simsters horses are at 8-1 on the morning line. Willyam37 entersA Vow To Be A Slew, an impressive Broken Vow colt. AVTBAS has four wins from 11 starts for a cool $525k in earnings. He’s a perfect 1-for-1 at this distance. That win happened on Derby day in the GR Simsters Derby; AVTBAS won by two with a 102SP. This colt’s most dangerous feature is his extreme versatility. He won that Derby from way back, but at 12 last time out he ran second from the second position.
My own entrant, If You Dare, is still looking for win #4, but he’s well on his way with three wins from eight starts. He’s a stakes winner at 9.5, graded-placed at 9, but has yet to run 10. The Touch Gold colt should handle the distance well. He generally runs midpack, and should have plenty of speed up front to make a run at in the stretch. Funny coincidence: He runs for the GR Simsters, but the jockey, M Billig, heads up the NWRC under his bullfrogmb handle.
We have two in at 9-1, one representing the Simsters and one for NWRC. The Simster colt, Spitfire MK I, runs for the buffy8 stable. The Tiznow colt is winless for the year, but that’s not through lack of trying or talent. He would have slipped into the Bluegrass Derby field had it not been for a loss by a nose in the G3 Smallville. On Derby Day, he found himself running against GR Simsters foes, but lost to fellow Simster A Vow To Be A Slew. Four weeks ago the colt ran second in an allowance. His top SP of 100 is quite good. The big concern is that Spitfire tends to pop a really nice race every other. According to pattern, this won’t be the good race.
The second 9-1 horse is Touch Me Once, trained by winningday. He hasn’t won since January, and that was a mile allowance where he posted a 60SP, but the Touch Gold colt is thrice-stakes-placed since. This is his first go at the classic distance. At the 8-9 range, Touch generally makes his move too early and runs out of steam heading to the wire. The more restrained pace he’s likely to get with the longer distance might be enough to help conserve the energy needed for a serious stretch run. That 100SP he earned last time out is his best, perhaps signaling a new level of performance in the near future.
Also running for NWRC is Windy Coast, trained by bond77. The Saint Liam colt make his stakes-debut a tough one, but the colt hasn’t been worse than second in his last six, and is a perfect one-for-one routing. His only route was at 9, however, so his staying ability is somewhat in question. Given that concern, he still closed from way back last time out (in that 9f start) to win an allowance by two, suggesting that he probably can handle 10f. High SP of 102 earned at 7.5, but the 97 he got at 9 does lend some confidence. 10-1 odds are pretty attractive.
Master trainer Theatrical offers up Lyphadane (funster stable) as a DUR representative at 11-1. He’s riding a five-race win streak, including a pair of stakes at 11 and 12. Has yet to go 10, but of a horse can win at 9 and 11 then 10 should be a cinch. Two major barriers to a sixth consecutive win: This is the biggest field the Nothin’ Leica Dane colt has ever faced, and he’ll have to step up the speeds to win. On that last one, however, the colt has notched a 99 at 11, so the acceleration won’t need to be a major one.
Also at 11-1 is the final GR Simster horse, Feast Of Ravens. The belong To Me colt runs out of the waremblem6 stable (making this colt a farm-mate to Spitfire MK I). Ravens has just two wins from nine starts, but he’s getting real good lately. He took his graded debut in stride two back, running a nicely closing third in the G2 Captain Hook for a top SP of 100. Last time out he encountered a wet track at the G2 Flat Land Derby, but despite not liking the going, he still posted a 98SP. Back on the fast track, and getting a bit more ground, Ravens may well be sitting on a big race.
Right of Reply, representing DUR at 13-1, comes into this race off six straight victories. Trained by fairway, the Oratory filly is the lone distaffer in the race. This is her first go in mixed company, but the way she’s been beating up on her own sex suggests that she’s quite capable. You don’t win by 3 1/2 at nine and 4 1/4 at 11 by being a lazy slowpoke. Those were her most recent victories, both in listed stakes. Admittedly she hasn’t been in full fields in a few months, but that won’t stand in her way. What might is her speed; her best yet is a 98 earned last time out at 11. This is her first 10f start.
Melbry853 enters Sum Abs at 14-1 for NWRC. The Aldebaran colt was a hard-closing second in the NWRC Derby three back, then took home the top prize in the NWRC’s version of the Middle Jewel. He then managed a third after a strong close in the final segment of the NWRC Triple Crown. Pretty impressive stuff indeed, considering he’d never tried stakes company before those three races. He’s a tad slower than the best of this race, but a top SP of 95 is nothing to sneeze at.
DUR is represented by the Red Ransom colt Red Forest. Donut has campaigned the 16-1 colt to a 7:4-1-0 record, including wins on both surfaces. The colt is two-for-two at 10f, and loves to be on or right behind the lead. His last race, an allowance, saw Forest win by two with a 100SP. He’s clearly getting better fast, and loves this distance. The class jump will be tough, but if he performs well against this crew the trainer will know he’s got a pretty special colt. Another fun factoid: the jockey, B Peeples, is the alter ego of GR Simster PadreBri.
19-1 is not a morning line jockeymax is used to seeing for his horses, but Slew In A Storm is getting very little attention from the bettors. This may be due to an uncharacteristically poor performance last time out in a 12f stake – being distanced in a 4-horse field tends to depress future wagers. The drop back in distance can only help this Saint Liam colt, but 10 may still be too much. He’s been pretty good at the 8-8.5 range, with four stakes wins in there, but I suspect that 10 will prove to be just a bit too far. Top speed of 96 earned at a mile.
Daydreamer (aka Bullfrogmb aka Mr. NWRC) has the Mineshaft colt Mine Thief in at 22-1. The colt has just one win from seven starts, but he’s been oh-so-close a couple of times, and should find this distance suits him well. He’s gone up to 9f, but never longer. He’ll find the company tough indeed, and he hasn’t yet shown he’s fast enough to run with the big boys, but this colt may have an ace up his, err, saddlecloth. Can stalk or close as he pleases.
I’d say the GR Simsters have this race locked up with A Vow To Be A Slew and Passing Stone likely to complete the exacta. NWRC’s got the bulk of the rest of the points coming from Tribal War and Windy Coast. Lyphadane looks good for a few points as well.