Smackdown Distaff Sprint
The final race of the day on Smackdown Saturday is a distaff sprint at seven furlongs for older fillies and mares, and the day ends with an excellent field of fifteen, including the top rated female sprinter and four of the top 25 in the division.
In a race that shapes up as the equal of a Grade I affair, let’s take a look at the field:
- AWESOME OCCY(NZ) (OCTAGONAL(NZ) x AWESOME AGAIN x
She’s won but one of her last 16 races and never topped a 96 speed figure. In her 10 races this year, she’s finished in the front half of the field fewer than half the time. That all explains the very long odds. She has won at long odds before, winning a minor stakes in early April, but it would be a surprise to see her overcome all that’s against her here.
- DIABLERIE (STORM CAT x ALYDAR x HALO) bred and trained by wemblem (11%) Odds: 11-1
In her last five races, she’s earned triple digit figures four times and has three wins. All of her recent wins have been at a mile or longer, but she’s been successful at this distance before. Her only bad races have come when racing in graded stakes. While the company here makes this the equivalent of a graded stakes, technically as an owner-restricted race, this is a lower class. We’ve all known horses that run differently when the stakes is graded. She’s at the top of her game right now, clearly fits with these, and has a real shot here.
For a sprint with 15 entrants, it is perhaps surprising only to have four runners interested in the early lead. This one will be one of them. She got caught up in a nasty speed duel last time and faded to 6th against a tough Inner City Sprint field. Otherwise, she’s been a steady performer all here career, winning eight of 19 dirt sprints and specializing at this distance. Figures to cash a check today.
- BITE THE BULLET II (RED RANSOM x FORTY NINER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred and trained by korn (14%) Odds: 11-1
This six year old mare’s best recent race was the Bluegrass Distaff, where she finished third. Unfortunately the two that finished in front of her, Explosive Storm and Cheyenne Gold, are here again. She faded badly last time out. We’d like to forgive that one due to the wet track, but she’s done well on wet surfaces before – in fact, she earned her highest lifetime figure on a “good” track. With seven stakes wins, including a pair of graded wins, she’s due respect.
- RAPID REFUND (BATES MOTEL x CHIEF’S CROWN x
Current connections picked up this old gal in a claiming race early this year and have found success by running her in stakes. Most of her recent success has come on wet track and against weaker competition, and the fast track makes her less appealing. Win or lose, however, hats off to Magoo for the claim and the bold and successful training.
- HANCOCK POND (GONE WEST x
She’s been in 14 graded stakes, winning two of them. Her most recent win was the Grade I Looney Bin at this distance. Since then her form has gone south, and she was not a factor in her two most recent starts. Excellent trainer has his hands full trying to turn it around for this millionaire without giving her an extended rest.
- GREASE BARE (LAMMTARRA x AVENUE OF FLAGS x DRONE) trained by rohirrim (14%) Odds: 10-1
This seven year old is an absolute monster on a wet track. Nine of her 11 wins and five of her seven seconds have come on off tracks. Today’s weather calls for sunny and hot. Mare makes her 50th start today, so it would be wonderful to see a milestone win on a milestone start. Look at this: One of her two wins on fast tracks came a year ago in a Smackdown sprint. Loves to run late. Beat Skippy last time in the Lil’ Leprechaun but finished behind two others in here.
- SUPREME TEAM (INCLUDE x SOVEREIGN DANCER x WHAT A PLEASURE) bred and trained by fairyking (16%) Odds: 14-1
About a year ago, this one began a four race win streak, but now she hasn’t won since last September. There are signs she may be coming back into form with a couple recent thirds and a triple digit speed figure. Snowchief runs the stable, and that explains the creative breeding and why everyone will be rooting for this one.
- SKIPPY (AFLEET x BUCKAROO x RELAUNCH) bred by scout2, trained by scout4 (11%) Odds: 20-1
In January this four year old looked to be the real deal in turf sprints. She had just won a listed stakes and finished second in a graded try. Since then, however, she’s been awful, never threatening at any distance or surface. Last time she went back to dirt, and today she gets to face three who beat her easily in that race. She leads the field in earnings per race, but she needs to reverse her current form to do well here. If I knew how to train a horse, I would offer a suggestion to Scout. But I don’t. Anybody?
- MAN ON FIRE (WOODMAN x AJDAL x RIVERMAN) bred and trained by lenny14 (22%) Odds: 12-1
If Lenny were to enter his mother in a race after knee replacement surgery, we would give her consideration. This one last won a dirt sprint two years ago in something called a Smackdown race. Oh. That might be a good sign. She enters this with worse current form than two years ago, so while we don’t expect much here, we would never be surprised. She has seven stakes wins, including a Grade II trophy.
- EXPLOSIVE STORM (STORM CAT x
Number one rated sprinter made her customary late charge last time in the Lil’ Leprechaun only to come up just short. It doesn’t look like the start of a decline in form, and this winner of five graded stakes had just won four of her previous five races against the toughest distaff competition the Sim has to offer. Barn picks up
- BURNING VOYAGE (BURNING ROMA x
Fabman’s entry comes with her own three race win streak where she ran speed figures that rival any other in here. She has yet to run against graded company, so it’s tough to make class comparisons. She may have a pace advantage, if such things exist. Most of the gals here who come from off the pace come from well off. She likes to sit just behind the leaders and shouldn’t have much competition for the spot. She’ll have first run at the early leaders.
- JUST AS WELL (RAHY x SADLER’S WELLS x REGAL AND ROYAL) bred and trained by chops27 (15%) Odds: 11-1
Lenny’s second entry has not been doing well her last few races. A return to the form she showed in March and April would put her right there. Otherwise she might end up trailing Lenny’s mother.
- KACYMYGIRL (MACABE x SILVER GHOST x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by nj50 (15%) Odds: 8-1
She got caught up in the speed duel in the Lil’ Leprechaun and was passed late by Explosive Storm. With very few exceptions, she’s been a steady runner for her connections and shows no sign of slowing down. She’ll be one of the early runners and seems likely to pick up a check. She may go over the million dollars in earnings with this race.
- AGAIN WITHTHE GOLD (AWESOME AGAIN x SEEKING THE GOLD x RIBOT) bred bdog01, trained by barn25dog (16%) Odds: 7-1
The 109 speed figure she earned last time leads the field. That last race was the only time she’s ever been more than two lengths off the lead at the first call, yet she came back to win. It’s always a good sign when a horse shows she can win with different running styles. She has four wins in her past five races, and if we keep telling her this is not a graded race, she’s got a great shot.
Summary: The morning line odds look unusually reasonable. We’ll go with Again With the Gold / Explosive Storm / Burning Voyage. In Smackdown talk, that’s NWRC / DUR / NWRC.