Smack Down III – Grade 1 1 1/2 mile dirt for 3 yr olds
3287.2907
Smackdown sponsored Grade 1 – 1 ½ mile 3 yr old dirt challenge
A relatively thin field of 8 three year olds lineup to run a mile and a half on the dirt over a forecasted fast Northern California track. The best of these have continued on from the New Yorker, which is run at the same distance as today’s race, and they look to run big off of that top-notch prep. A few others are relatively untested and looking to prove themselves on the Graded scene with a big run. Let’s look at the field:
1. Severe Warning – Ran a career best 107 in a blowout 2nd place effort in the Grade 1 New Yorker. This son of Theatrical is the 2nd most accomplished horse in the field next to Borzakovski and I expect his front-running style from the rail to break through in a big way today.
2. Defiant Direwolf – Riding a three race win streak this Stormy Atlantic colt tries graded company for the first time. Has yet to break a 100 speed figure but could see him coming close to that in today’s contest but a hunch he will need to make too big a jump to be a true contender.
3. Borzakovski – Grade 1 breakthrough for this The Cliff’s Edge colt came at Nevada in the 11 furlong Monster Mash stakes where he reached a 100 speed figure in a 3 ¼ length romp over the field. Failed to fire in The New Yorker and finished exactly mid pack in a field of 14. Is the leading stakes points earner in this field with 146 accumulated.
4. Sheebah’s Gold – Son of Stephen Got Even always seems to run around the money and may sweeten the price of exotics in this contest. Hard to see him winning but not too difficult to find him cashing some sort of check.
5. Pine Spirit – Proved to be a demon of the slop in winning a stakes with a career best speed figure over the off track. With North California calling for nothing but sun it is hard to like this ones chances unless the weather turns unexpectedly.
6. Bad Decision – Shipping in from Norway after winning a stakes race at 12 furlongs with a career best speed figure of 102. Between the possibility of a bounce and travel related sluggishness I am going to pass on this lightly raced but talented son of Street Cry.
7. Drunken Pirate – Aye maytee this multiple stakes winner by recently juiced sire Dehere looks to take down the first graded race of his career today. Should beat the late closers to the jump and could break through with a big run today.
8. Ghost Show – The greenest of the field this son of Theatrical appears to have a case of seconditis with 4 career placings and one victory in 7 races. Needs greater than a 10 point speed figure improvement to rank with the best of these and it appears to be a case of too much too soon at this point.
Outlook: It is often said pace makes the race and this race is going to be a textbook study of that phenomenon. It is time for a big bold prediction and here it comes. Severe Warning is going to get away unchallenged from the rail and win this Grade 1 race wire to wire in a blow out. Drunken Pirate will put down the high proof grain oats long enough to finish a game second and Sheebah’s Gold will round out the trifecta by throwing out another in the money finish.