Ermington Pegusus goes for 7 in a row
The seventh running of the Movieland Shiny Cup has drawn the attention of one of the most dominant horses of all time. Ermington Pegusus, now riding a seven-graded-race win streak, appears to be ready to make it eight in a row. He’s not getting a walkover, however, as nine other older horses will be in the gates hoping to earn the title of spoiler. The Cup is a 10f G1 carrying a hefty million-dollar purse.
Through its history, the Cup has not been kind to favorites. Only one has ever won. That horse, Western Groom, was inducted into the Hall of Fame two years ago. The Cup has also not favored closers. Only two have won from more than five lengths off the pace. The holder of the stakes record, Twist Of Lemon, came from within just a few lengths of the lead to win in a snappy time of 2:00.2 in 2006. This field, at 10 entrants, is the smallest ever.
The big guy
Much has been written about the great Ermington Pegusus. He’s been called unbeatable, unstoppable, faster than a speeding cheetah, and a freak of sim nature. It’s rare to see a horse so dominate a division like this 4yo Sky Mesa colt has. Since December he’s won every one of seven starts by at least two lengths, and took home the prestigious Sand Castle Classic trophy by five lengths. After 19 starts, he’s #9 on the all-time earnings list and doubtless will move way up before trainer Pigeon3 retires him. It’s hard to see a horse that hasn’t posted a SP under 111 since last September lose this one. No wonder he’s at even odds. The biggest drawback to an ErPeg win might well be his jockey; R Hoffman is winning at a 3.7% clip this year. That’s one win in 27 rides. Not good for a horse who normally gets the best jockeys available.
Potential spoilers
Million’s Rude Boss is the horse most likely to beat ErPeg, if the unthinkable should happen. The Boss has had a rather checkered career,. Until last fall he looked like a good if unspectacular allowance horse. Suddenly he started to figure out the whole racing thing and he’s been running 100+ SPs nearly every race since. He’s still yet to win a stake at all, but he is stakes-placed several times and his most recent start indicates this level should sit him well. That last start saw him finish second just beaten by Gracepointe Prayer; Prayer has since gone on to place twice in graded company. The Boss has been on break since the end of March, s he may not be perfectly primed to beat the big guy, but he’s more than good enough for a placing. He’ll likely hang out near ErPeg toward the back of the pack, and make his move at the same time. 5-1 odds make him a nice bet if you think ErPeg can be beaten.
At 7-2 is Karen’s Formulated Risk. Last out he put in a good but not good enough run the G2 Iowa Cornhusker BB Classic. The track was off, however, and Risk has successfully gone from a wet track to a victory on a fast one. Risk is thrice a stakes winner on dirt, and scored a G3 in the Saints Handicap in March. The Beat Hollow 5yo has only tried 10f once; that race saw him finish fourth but beaten by almost eight lengths. He’s good for a placing at worst. Real nice horse was a superb claim by his trainer back in October. Keep an eye on him, though. If he finishes as well as I think he will, he could be an excellent bet in future grades at 10-11 furlongs.
The lone mare in the field, Intenttodistribute, is entered at 12-1 by Lordpye2. She just wired the field in the G2 Larry Laffer at 10f, setting a new stakes record in the process. She’s a very fleet red Ransom mare who was pretty capable at the allowance level but finally found her place in the distaff ranks this year. To her credit she’s undefeated at 10f, and has been steadily improving all year long. The major strikes against her are that her SPs are not quite comparable with ErPeg’s (though they are very respectable), and she’s been throwing in a clunker every other race and this is one is scheduled to be the clunker. On the other hand, this is an ideal distance, and in this kind of field strange things can happen.
Waiting in the wings
The 5yo Shaft Dixie is lightly raced for his age. After 17 starts, he’s got seven wins. This distance should suit the Mineshaft son to a tee, but a lifetime high SP of 106 is not high enough to make ErPeg feel any real threat. I do like him a lot, however, as he won his first stake two back after a very good close-from-behind run. In any other race, he’d be at better odds than 7-1. As he and the big guy share a similar running style, and the big guy is far superior, it would take a tremendous effort for Speedstick’s horse to win this one.
Topicount4 enters one of Deputy Minister’s last sons at 7-1. King Of The Wind hasn’t quite lived up to his name, but he’s still been a useful sort for his connections. He’s run 10f five times in the last year, and hit 100+ every time. remarkable for a horse that’s only earned 100+ four times in his entire 33-race career. This distance obviously works for him, but he’s got an odd pattern in his last year of races. Every other race he runs well. This race according to pattern, should be the non-good one, but this is the just the second time he’ll have gone 10 back to back. The first time he posted a new lifetime high. King can run from any position. He’s especially good when on the lead. Given the talented nature of the closers, he’ll have the front of the field mostly to himself (shared only with Intenttodistribute). While I don’t think he’s likely to pull off a win, if the stars align he could make it happen.
Moneymaker enters a youngster at 14-1. King Of All Media is nearing the millionaire mark, but will be challenged to break that barrier against his elders. At just 3 years old and with 19 starts on his resume, Media is already more experienced than some of this crew. He’s the deepest of deep closers in the field, dropping back by 15 or more when he runs his best races. Media found himself back in the winner’s circle just three weeks ago when he won the G1 Princess Cup at 10f against his own age group. The 104SP he earned is his best yet, and on par with the best of his crop. No 3yo has ever won this race. Would be a great story if he emerged victorious.
In search of a miracle
Am I Really Bad. Hmm. Most would say that this 3yo Pleasantly Perfect colt isn’t bad at all, just a wee bit unlucky. Why else would he be going for his second lifetime win in his first graded try against the horse voted most difficult to beat by 3 out of 4 BTB writers? Bigeasy has high hopes for this colt, who earned his highest SP to date going 12f in an allowance last time out. Sticking to the marathons might actually be his best bet for win #2, as he’s generally closed well but run out of room going longer. Bad isn’t quite graded class yet, but in a race as weird as this one, why not take a shot? At 69-1 odds, he offers a handsome payout should he find his way to the top 3.
Also running for the Bigeasy stable is the 3yo filly I’ll Pay For It. She’s got two wins in 21 starts, the most recent in a CPU*175 allowance. To her credit, while she’s never run 10 this looks like a good distance for her. With a top SP of 84 (a full 33 points slower than ErPeg), the filly is unfortunately hopelessly outclassed here. She’s 99-1 for a reason.
But I’ll Pay For It isn’t the only 99-1 entrant. The other is Sherman12’s Secret Agent Dude. The son of Free House is the old man of the field at 7 years of age as he makes start #77. A Seventh place finish would be fitting, given those stats. The horse has routed seven times, and earned zero dollars. He was claimed out of his last start (a dirt sprint) for $100k. This race is his stakes debut. The last time he cracked 80 was just shy of a year ago. The Dude doesn’t have much of a chance.
Chatter on the backside is that Ermington Pegusus is expected to once again romp. He’s fast, he’s experienced, and lately he’s unstoppable. That doesn’t mean he’s got the race sewn up. Intenttodistribute is a mare on the rise, and she’s making a specialty of this distance. Rude Boss and Formulated Risk appear to be poised for a couple of huge races; if either lives up to their potential, this could be a shocker of a race.