Pazjazz “Prays” for a Hoover win with pair of excellent colts
The 3yos continue the march toward the Breeders Bowl with a rather interesting field for a mere G3 this weekend. the Hoover Handicap field features a couple of excellent runners in Eclipse winner Degoldenstorm and nine-time winner Mr.Eko. Those two won’t face an easy race, however, as many 3yo colts are finally maturing enough to use this 8.5 furlong race as a springboard to bigger and better things. The stakes record, set by Grand Reward in 2005, is 1:41.2. Not even the notably swift Eruption could better that mark when he won in 2003. Should any of this year’s field exceed the mark, it would be a remarkable feat.
Should 6-1 cofavorite Mr.Eko win this one, it would be a big victory for trainer Pointe. Few horses earn 10 wins lifetime, let alone 10 in their first 19 starts. That’s just what this Street Cry colt is poised to do. After a half-length win three weeks ago in a listed stake, where the colt posted a 101SP at this distance, you’ve got to like his chances a lot. Mr.Eko has been campaigned pretty hard, so we could be looking at a colt starting to feel the burn of an intense racing schedule. On the other hand, two of his three 100SP+ races (which were all wins) happened with three or fewer weeks between races, so he may be one of those rare horses that thrives on lots of work. He generally likes to relax midpack during races, but has been known to stalk very ably.
Factorx enters the other cofave, Majestic Sakhee. In comparison to Mr.Eko, Majestic is a lightweight in the experience department, with just six starts behind him. He’s made the most of his short career, already notching three wins and two 100SP+ performances. Both of those big races happened on off tracks. That doesn’t mean this Sakhee colt should be written off on the fast track he gets here. On the contrary, the decision on whether he should be backed in this spot should rest on the distance rather than the track condition. Majestic’s had five starts at 6 furlongs, and his debut at 7 furlongs. His sireline supports a go at routing, and while his mama was graded-placed sprinting, she also was pretty handy at a mile. He’s already proven he’s graded quality with a second last time out in the G3 Great Fishing Hole. Keep an eye on him, as he could develop into a very solid horse as the summer progresses.
The first of three at 7-1, Degoldenstorm may be finding his footing again after a rather tough spring campaign. Tenpin4’s star colt was a sim darling after a stellar 2yo season that included a pair of big graded wins. He started this year with big statements in the G3 Giant Slayer and G2 Fountain of Ute, but on Derby Day was nowhere to be found. The trainer wisely gave the Dehere colt an easy race on the lawn (which he won) before going back to dirt for his last start in the G2 Trail By Night at a mile. That race saw ‘Storm give his customary stalking effort, but he wasn’t able to make his trademark sweeping move into the stretch. Given that was just two weeks ago, one has to wonder if the #3 ranked colt really has it in him to get back into the spotlight. The 103SP he earned says he just might get the job done.
Pazbarn sends out Triple A Prayer at 7-1. The Aldebaran colt showed he had more to give with a couple of listed wins in march and April, but didn’t quite show how much more until his last two starts. At the end of May, Prayer wired a small listed stake field at 9f to post his first triple-digit SP. Two weeks ago he mixed it up with a beautiful stalking trip to score his third stakes win. This is his second appearance in the listed ranks; the first, in the Bluegrass Derby Trial, did not go well. Looking at this colt, two things stand out. First, his mama specialized in turf sprinting, while Junior appears much more comfortable dirt routing. Second, Junior has been very good on a wet track. Of his 17 lifetime starts, eight have been on off dirt, and four have ended in wins. He’s undefeated at this distance, getting good at the right time, and definitely capable of winning this one.
The final 7-1 entrant, Devil’s Day, took a big leap forward in his last start. Hardrada’s Dayjur colt took the G3 Hollywood Knights Classic by a length and a quarter with a superb 106SP. It was his first win since February, and first try at 9 on the main track. I’d like to see if he can duplicate that effort at 9, but instead the colt is back in at 8.5 where he’s winless after two tries. That, plus the likely bounce, makes this horse less likely in my opinion to pick up his second graded win. That doesn’t mean he can’t, because this is one very nice horse, but it is a strike against his success here.
Global Affair is a colt I was pretty high on going into the Bluegrass Derby. He was relatively inexperienced with his first graded start in early March, but a horse that runs second and then wins in his first two grades is something special. Unfortunately he ran a lackluster thirteenth in the Bluegrass. He’s had one start since, in the G3 Hollywood Knights. Lucha’s Cat Thief colt earned his second-highest SP to date there (a 98) but settled for fifth after tiring late. He’s clearly got the talent to win at the upper ranks, and is well-skilled at 8.5f. Despite his last two disappointments, I think this guy might just surprise here. At 8-1, he’s an interesting bet.
Pharheart is our first of three 11-1 entrants.Ringott’s Lion Heart colt looked like he might just steal the Hollywood Knights last time out, but was forced to give way to Devil’s Day. Still, for his first graded effort the 105SP was extremely encouraging. He’s one for one at this distance, clearly relishes this level of competition, and as long as he doesn’t bounce, has a good shot at win number 5. This race will be his testing ground. Succeed here and he’ll be respected by the rest of the 3yo class. Fail, and he’s a one-shot wonder.
Paz seems to have a good group of up-and-comers! His Pazjazz stable enters the 11-1 Pray For Ransom. The Red Ransom colt started his career on the turf, but his last four have been on the dirt. Real good races, too, with a win, second, fourth, and fifth. he’s improving SPs with every dirt start, and should be winning his first stake any time now. A tad slower than some of his peers, but that’s more likely due to lack of opportunity than lack of skill.
A Van Nistelrooy colt is our final 11-1 entrant. Trained by TeamT, Even Steps Ted is fresh off a win by almost 2 in a 9f listed stake last month. The 100SP he earned was his best ever, though it certainly wasn’t unexpected. Indeed, EST won a listed stake at 8.5 furlongs back in February with a 99. EST enjoys taking the lead, though he can win from stalking position as well. This will be his third try in graded company, and also the shortest try at that level. He’s going to face a tough closing charge, but he can handle it.
At 12-1 is Jdiso2’s Royal Soul. The Perfect Soul colt is winless since December. He also hasn’t managed to hit the board since February when he was second in a 4-horse owner-restricted stake. This race will be a tall order for Top SP of 97 is his only SP above 92,indicating he’s just not yet at the level he’ll need to be to make a difference in the top-5 order of finish. Given his sire’s propensity for turf, it’s surprising the colt has yet to try the grass.
Thebaker2 starts Adhesive from the far outside post at 16-1. He’s got a pretty mixed record. Fifteen starts, five wins. Top SP of 99 earned two starts after a 77. He picked up a G2 in September, then lost again and again until last start, when he earned that 99 with a listed win. He likes to be close to the lead, and given the speed of the next horse, may find himself just where he wants to be. Too inconsistent to count on, but capable of a surprise.
Can the 18-1 Let’s Get Luckie live up to his name? Owner Hilofarms has to be thinking big things are on the horizon for his Stravinsky colt. Who wouldn’t, after watching Luckie open up a lead of nearly ten lengths midway through a 10f allowance last time out? Coming home in front by 4 and a quarter in a final time of 2:02 is not exactly disappointing. It does represent a huge increase in SP for the colt, who previously had just a maiden win. Given his wins are at 9 and 10, this distance may be a bit too short, but you’ve got to respect this horse nonetheless. He’ll be setting the pace. First try in graded, second try in stakes company.
Aljander, in at 26-1, has been bouncing in and out of grades without any real success. The Noverre colt started his career on the grass, and amassed over $150k on that surface, winning a G3 in June 2006. He moved to the main track in December and proved good enough to win and place in listed stakes, but in three dirt graded attempts has finished no better than eighth. What might prove to be his biggest asset here is his last start: he finished last in a G2 on turf. That might on the surface seem to be a harbinger of failure, but astute readers of form will note the last time Aljander tried his turf-to-dirt switch he won a dirt listed stake. Hard to believe Bm4’s colt can toss up a win, but a minor placing just might happen.
The final entrant, at 27-1, is the Mingun colt Sisson’s Gun. He’s an unlikely entrant making his graded debut. Fallen’s colt does have a pair of stakes wins on his record, but both occurred in short fields with SPs not comparable to what it will take to win this race. Gun has one start at this distance (in a listed stake in March) , but he ran a tiring fifth. Hard to see him sticking around to play any role in the finish absent a miracle.
Let’s Get Luckie will almost certainly go straight for the lead. But will the rest of this crowd let him get away to his accustomed multi-length margins? Unlikely. Degoldenstorm, Triple A Prayer, and Pharheart will likely be pushing Luckie harder than he’s ever been pushed before. Assuming they succeed in wearing him down, that’ll set up nicely for a strong closing push from Global Affair. and Pray For Ransom. I’m going out on a limb and calling Pray For Ransom and Triple A Prayer to run 1-2.