Much to Like in the Butterfly

Too often a stable’s dreams of greatness born from a graded stakes win early in a horse’s career lead to disappointment when she is unable to repeat the feat.  The connections of today’s winner may have reason to expect better.

Georgia’s Grade 3 Butterfly Futurity has a strong history of attracting fillies with great futures.  Last year’s winner, Battle Cruiser went on to a third in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and led most of the Bluegrass Oaks before giving way.  Second place filly Katherineofaragon just won the Black Middle Flower Stakes, and Rahy World also just won a Grade 3 sprint.

The 2005 winner, Groomed to Romp, recently won the Grade 3 Ferry Dust.  The first two runnings of the Butterfly attracted seven future millionaire fillies.  2002’s winner, Land Slam, went on to capture the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and multiple other graded stakes.

This year’s entries look formidable.  They already account for six stakes wins, including two graded wins, early in the two-year-old racing season.

Here is a look at the field:

1. HENNY ANNA(KY)  (WOODMAN x HENNESSY x OGYGIAN) bred and trained by crandy (5%)  Odds: 13-1

Early speedster was gobbled up by Al Forest last time after leading most of the way.  She will be joined in her quest for the early lead by three others in here.  Five of the past six winners of the Butterfly won their prep race, and none have gone off at more than 10-1 odds.  She’s been making steady progress, but she’ll have plenty of excuses for not winning.

2. IMBRIUM BASIN(JPN)  (DEEP IMPACT x DANEHILL x RED RANSOM) bred and trained by thebandit (18%)  Odds: 8-1

Freshman sire Deep Impact is getting many chances with highly regarded dam sires, such as with this one.  This filly is perfect after one try against a full residency restricted field where she was able to rally from last to first in a bold move.  The jump in class is huge, but it’s hard to fault a perfect record.  The Imbrium Basin is a huge crater on the moon caused by a Deep Impact.  Well named, BigKev.

3. LEXINGTON BABE(ARG)  (IBERO(ARG) x EXUBERANT x SUMMING) bred by lasix, trained by nagrus (15%)  Odds: 72-1

A win in a maiden claiming race, followed by a second in an undistinguished field of five, did not impress the oddsmakers as she makes this class jump.  Also working against her is that her times in the two races were not good compared to the rest of this field.  In her favor are her connections – Graywolf stables have won this race twice before, in 2002 and 2003.

4. QUICKPLAY(NY)  (FAST PLAY x WHAT A PLEASURE x TUDOR MINSTREL) bred and trained by ywhisper (15%)  Odds: 8-1

Sire hasn’t had a graded winner in the past five crops, but that may change today.  She comfortable handled a full field three weeks ago in her lone start.  She earned a speed figure that day that ranks second in this field.  Normal improvement in her second start makes her a major player in this race.

5. RUBY GLOOM(TUR)  (STRIKE THE GOLD x STORM CAT x AFLEET)  bred and trained by beamerback (8%)  Odds: 10-1

She’s been closing but coming up short in recent starts.  The slightly longer distance here may help.  Like some of the others in the first half of the field, she tries to overcome this race’s history of favoring fillies coming off wins.  Ruby is but one for four, and that one win was against an owner restricted field.  She faces a larger and better field today than she’s seen recently.

6. THEIR PEGASUS(KY)  (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x COASTAL x SECRETARIAT)  bred and trained by bowlerboy (6%)  Odds: 8-1

She rallied smartly last time to break her maiden and earn a speed figure that puts her in contention.  Dam had one listed stakes win in 87 starts.  Daughter looks likely to surpass that record.  She’s making nice progress; it’s dangerous to ignore her.

7. STORMLEAR(MD)  (FANTASTICAT x STORM BOOT x LEAR FAN)  bred by stoneface, trained by xssessivx (8%)  Odds: 14-1

This one is no stranger to long odds: She broke her maiden at 13-1 and followed that with a Grade 3 win at 25-1 against colts.  She owns the field’s highest speed rating and, while it doesn’t mean a lot this time of the year, she’s rated number two in the division.  Barn parlayed that ranking into securing the services of Georgia’s dominant jockey.  All that and 14-1.  In both of her races she’s led every step of the way, and she will be challenged for the early lead here, and we don’t know how she’ll handle that, but she looks to be a great candidate to be the first true longshot to win the Butterfly.

8. SARACEN(KY)  (STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER)  bred by temp1, trained by dixiedotco (26%)  Odds: 4-1

Debuted in a six filly listed stakes and won like the 2-5 choice she was.  Low odds are based more on her breeding than her history, but what does that matter?  It’s hard to find fault with either.  Led every step of the way.  Should be fun to watch the battle for the early lead.

9. MISS HENNYPENNY(KY)  (HENNESSY x A.P. INDY x MISWAKI)  bred and trained by simond2 (14%)  Odds: 6-1

This one also exits a graded stakes win that has given her a number four ranking in the division.  There’s an awful lot to like in this filly.  She’s been rallying in shorter races and faces a certain speed duel ahead of her.  Her only loss came when she was second in a nice allowance race against the boys.  She’s been showing steady improvement.  It’s hard to argue against her.

10. DEMONIC PRESENCE(KY)  (VICTORY GALLOP x MINESHAFT x POLISH NUMBERS)  bred and trained by taicheska (14%)  Odds: 10-1

She was second last time against an evenly matched stakes field.  She’s been earning speed figures that are competitive here, too.  Her only knock seems to be that those figures just aren’t growing.  She’s certainly eligible to make the sudden improvement she would need to win this.  I was going to downplay this filly’s chances, but just look at Shamran’s picture in his stables’ page.  Go, Demonic Presence!

11. AL FOREST(KY)  (GOOD REWARD x DANZIG x A.P. INDY)  bred and trained by zielissimo (14%)  Odds: 6-1

Good Reward is a son of Storm Cat and is getting nice dam sires to work with in his freshman crop, and he’s been doing very well with them.  Despite this one’s great record, she is only his fourth highest earner.  Al Forest is three for three, taking the natural progression from maiden to allowance to listed and now to graded.  Speed figures have been improving right along with the class levels.  Much to like.

12. JUEGO DEL FUEGO(AUS)  (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x UNBRIDLED x BOLD RULER)  bred and trained by jackworld  (11%)  Odds: 10-1

After just missing in two maiden races, barn sent this one to a grassy stakes and she won.  Her speed figure actually declined in that race, and that may explain the decision to return to dirt.  Class rise seems ambitious considering her speed figures, but this early in their career, horses can make dramatic improvement.

13. PERLA DEL SUR(FL)  (TOO MUCH BLING x SMOKE GLACKEN x LEVEE DANCER)  bred and trained by dscreetcat (17%)  Odds: 29-1

Suppose you had a filly who won her maiden debut and followed that up with an allowance win and a stakes win.  I suppose you would try graded company next, right?  All that sounds very reasonable.  What isn’t reasonable is assigning that filly 29-1 odds.  It’s true that her figures are a bit light, but that might be explained by the off tracks she’s been running on.  She was the longest odds filly in her last win, so no reason to ignore here either.

Summary:  As usual, I have no idea who will win.  I like Quick Play, Their Pegasus, Stormlear, Saracen, Miss Hennypenny, Al Forest, and Perla del Sur.  Which means you should choose among the others, if you want to win.  For the record:  Stormlear, Al Forest, Miss Hennypenny.