Big Race Preview 3252

The sims top dog returns to the track as Ermington Pegasus gets set to run this week. The three year old fillies and colts each have a one mile turf event that has brought the top two finishers from the Guineas races back to face each other in each of the races. Rapid Grey catches a field he should dominate and Sunnybank Memorial stretches out to the two mile distance in an interesting field of older and younger runners.

Race: 3252.0315 Michael-Strike Stakes – Grade I – $750,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

The all sim Ermington Pegasus puts his winning streak on the line against ten other rivals. The field did not fill up a sign maybe that people would rather not have to run against the monster. Ermington has answered every bell since his second place finish at the Breeder’s Bowl Classic. He has won five in a row in pretty impressive fashion. Some have speculated that he might be vulnerable at a mile and an eighth a little shorter than he usually runs but I think this is one of those rare horses that probably runs fast from six furlongs to a mile and a half. He will probably be forwardly placed and if he remains on his game there it will take a huge effort to end his win streak.

The very good Solar Song is the second favorite on the morning line. He was the last horse to beat Ermington Pegasus and he ran second to him last time out. He is probably on the down side of a great career so the worry here is if he can continue to keep running well at a high enough level. His recent form is good, but his closing style puts him in the position of having to run down Ermington Pegasus not a place you want to be. In his favor though is the fact that this pace is going to be very fast.  

Intergalactic may pose one of the biggest threats to Ermington Pegasus. I think he is possibly a little better at this distance than a mile and a quarter. He has just seventeen races so he is more likely to improve than others and he is already pretty fast. The pace here will be lightning fast and as long as he is off the pace today he could be the one.

So Slew Me is a really good runner at this distance. He will be part of the pace and that could hurt him because it will be fast. On the other hand he should be sitting just off the pace and will have first run at them in the stretch which could set him up for a big race. He is going to need that big run here against Ermington Pegasus but keep an eye out for him up front.

Race: 3252.3315 The St. James Tavern – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Ascot
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

Next to the Guineas this is one of the most prestigious turf miles for three year olds. The first two finishers in the Guineas have entered this race with some interesting new comers. Paycheck is not the favorite here but he did win the 2000 Guineas. Paycheck was a good two year old as well finishing second in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Turf. He had a good spring with a solid run on the dirt before tackling the 2000 Guineas. In the Guineas he stalked the early pace taking control in mid stretch to win with a nice speed figure. He will have his work cut out for him if he wishes to add this race to his resume.

The Fast Layne ran second to Paycheck in the 2000 Guineas. That was not even his best race this spring. He ran a really good race in the grade three Frio Frio Mile back in February. I think it will take that kind of an effort today to win this race. He was third in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Turf so you know he has to be tired of running behind Paycheck. He is a deep closer so will probably need a little racing luck.

Awesome Song is a runner that should scare the top two Guineas runners. He has found the turf a little later in his career. He has won four of six  only finishing off the board once a fourth place finish. He is coming off a grade three win that saw him post a 106 speed figure. He is a stalker so will probably get a really good trip off the speed and be a handful in the stretch if he keeps up his current form.

Unintentionally is the race favorite. Eleven tries on the turf five wins and five places only one time did he not finish first or second. Scary thing is he might be as equally good on the dirt. He ran second to Awesome Song two back and had another second place run coming into this race. He has been a very consistent runner so it is not a matter of will he be a factor it is a matter of what it will take to finish ahead of this guy. He likes to stalk and pounce and should be right there in the thick of things at the end.

Race: 3252.3416 The Prince of Whales – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Epsom
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf

Rapid Grey over matches a group of eight runners. On paper no one stacks up to Rapid Grey maybe the best mile and a quarter turf horse going right now. He is riding a five race win streak and has won all of his starts this year. He had to work hard last time out just getting up in the final stages of the race for a half length win. He is a deep closer type and as long as his form is there he should mop up this field.

Tee Jay’s Great is a solid enough runner that runs on the front end that he could be a potential threat. His speed figures are no where near the favorites and he is not nearly as accomplished. Still he can run a very good speed figure at this distance and the fact he will be well in front of the favorite is something to consider. The closer to the early pace he is the better for him.

Rosenthal is one of those runners that seems to always look like he is on the brink of a break through. He has run competitively at this distance, he has placed in graded stakes but he has yet to win a stakes race himself. He has a mid pack to stalking style and that could favor him because there could be a decent amount of pace here. He will have to show big speed figure improvement or Rapid Grey will have to have an off day but he could be a threat if things fall in place for him.

Race: 3252.3615 The Cremation Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Ostend
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

This is a very competitive group of fillies that face off in Ostend. The field is led by The Edge the runner up in the 1000 Guineas. Her problem is she only has two career wins thus far, her maiden and an allowance. She has proven though she can run at the highest level with her second place finish last time out. She is a bit of a closer or mid pack type runner. She has shown the ability to close ground and despite only two career wins she should be considered one of the favorites here.

Buda for a Day won the 1000 Guineas and draws right next to The Edge. The difference between the fillies is that Buda for a Day knows where the winner’s circle is having won seven of twelve starts. The way she has run thus far she has been all or nothing. She either wins or finishes well back. She is a stalker so that typically puts her in a good position to perform well. Coming of an impressive win she is one of the top choices to consider.

VY The Quarterback did not run in the 1000 Guineas. She is looking very good though having won the grade three Woodpecker’s Edge and running second last time out in the grade two Celine Stakes. She has experimented with different distances this spring and looks to have found a home at the one mile distance. She is a mid pack runner that has a great turn of foot in the stretch. If she gets a good position turning for she will be tough to hold off in deep stretch.

I will give you a bit of a long shot her with Blinkin. Since moving to the turf she is undefeated. She has now won six races in a row including a grade two race last time out. Despite all the wins and the graded race there is something about her that leaves you with the feeling she may not be good enough. Get that out of your head, she ran a top speed figure last time she will stalk and if you are a gambler you have to play her at nine to one. 

Race: 3252.4915 The Golden Jamboree – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Newmarket
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Six furlongs on the Turf

Just ten show up for the big turf sprint. Tequila With Lime and Night’s Desire are co favorites in a race that drew four of the top ten ranked turf sprinters. Night’s Desire has been running in the longer sprints here recently. He was sixth last time out in a very quickly run race. He finished sixth earned a 107 speed figure. He finished fourth at the Breeder’s Bowl Turf Sprint only a length behind the winner. Night’s Desire should be stalking the early pace and will have to over come the outside post.

Tequila With Lime is coming out of the same race as Night’s Desire. In fact he finished ahead of Night’s Desire in that race. Two back he won a grade one so he is in good form right now. At forty one career races you have to thing to down side is near if not already upon him. He is a closer type runner so has his work cut out amongst this fast bunch.

I Make Stuff Up won the first Breeder’s Bowl Turf Sprint. Since then he has just a listed stakes win to his credit. He did out finish the top two last time out, where he ran fourth. It was his best race since the Breeder’s Bowl and may be a sign he is ready to ramp it up again. He is still a young gun amongst some older runners. He is a mid pack runner that makes a good stretch run when he is on and think he is on now.

Digging the Grave is another salty veteran in this race. He out finished all the horses mentioned above last time out finishing second after setting a quick pace. I suspect he will be right on the lead again here and if he is allowed to slip away form the field he will make them pay. That was the best race in recent times for the veteran so it will be interesting to see if he can do that in back to back races at this stage of his career.

Race: 3252.3515 The Gold Glass – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Longchamp
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: Two miles on the Turf

This marathon race has drawn Sunnybank Memorial and he has been installed as the morning line favorite. It has been a little tough this year to not see him be so dominate. His closest race this year was a little further than his usual mile and a half. He now moves out to the two mile distance with hopes of getting back in the winner’s circle. I think he has a pretty good shot here with the extra distance. He has only lost a little and out at this distance he looks as good as any in here. He is a deep closer so he needs to find that closing kick if he wants to get his first win of the year here.

Total Chaos is the second favorite in this race. The one thing going in his favor is he youth with only fourteen career starts. What he lacks those are graded wins. He is running plenty fast enough to win this race and surrounded by many older runners he could prove much the best. He is a middle of the pack type runner and will have to stare down his older rivals to win here.

Mine D’Inverne finished just ahead of Sunnybank two races back. He only has eighteen career races and like Total Chaos faces some aging veterans. Like Sunnybank Mine is a deep closer and that will put him in a position he will have to over come to be effective here. He has a win a couple of races back but needs to improve off that to win here.

Band of Budas is the other aging veteran here. He is fresh off a grade one win last time out at this distance. He has found a home out here in marathon ville having won or finished second in his last thirteen tries at this distance. He is a deep closer as well so will have to chase the pace and out close two other favorites to get into the winner’s circle here. Could be a tough task for Band of Budas.