No ‘Sub’ Par Field For This Philly Cheese Steak (Article Written by Slipknot22)

Editor’s Note:   Article written by Slipknot22.  

Eleven horses and one mare will vie for the Grade III Philly Cheese Steak Turf title, at a mile on the Pennsylvania grass track. The track’s been taking a fair amount of rain of late, and even with the last couple of days being relatively dry, the race is expected to go off rated ‘good’. The record speed fig for this stakes is a huge 118 (1:33 1/5), and a lot of very hot horses, most of whom have had very little trouble on off tracks, will line up on Saturday. The horse by post position:

PP 1 – Cymbalta (Kingmambo x Northern Dancer x Hoist The Flag) – (lenny3: 20.1% Wins. 50.1 ITM) Nothing depressing about this royally-bred 4 year old colt. In fact, he’s got a good many things recommending him at a price in this race. He’s only had one lifetime start out of the money (4-3-1 in 9 starts), his top speed figure is right with the best in this field, he’s a stone closer in a field that has a speed duel or two likely, he’s shown he can win on an off course, and best of all, he’s going off at 11/1 with these positives. The only question marks I can see would be class. He’s never faced anything close to this level before, but his first step up to stakes (LTO) was a solid, triple digit effort. If he gets the right pace in front of him, look for him to be flying in deep stretch. If he doesn’t win, he’s got to be included in any exotics.

PP 2 – Rattleshirt (More Than Ready x Storm Cat x Gone West) – (stormborn2: 23.4%, 52.7%) Shown to be a solid threat in allowance and ungraded stakes, this stalker/closer hasn’t shown too much in his last two graded efforts, including a 12th LTO in the Grade I Rising Sun Spring Cup. That said, he HAS won a Grade II race at this distance, but it was 8 races back. If he runs back to his career best races, he’s definitely got a  shot with these, but he’ll have to be careful when he makes his move. The few times he’s tried to run with the leaders early, the wheels have come off. A possibility, but might be a tad of an underlay at 8/1 in this field.

PP 3 – A.P. Sojourney (A.P. Indy x Palace Music x Diesis) – (sojourneys: 13.2%, 37.8) Another very solidly-bred 4 year old, this guy seems a bit overmatched here. He’s never started in anything above a restricted allowance before, he’s never hit triple digits in speed figs before (although he’s hit 99), and if his last race was any indication, he might be more suited to a longer race. All that said, he IS coming off of a fine race LTO, and 16 races doesn’t preclude an improvement. But it’ll have to be a quantum leap for this guy to cash a check with this field.

PP 4 – Urko’s Danzig (Danzig x Storm Cat x Alydar) – (urko: 16%, 45.3%) An interesting horse here, depending on if he runs his best race or not. A seasoned veteran, this 6 year old will be lining up for his 42nd career start, and his form has been all over the board, but lately he’s been a middle of the pack kinda guy. He has the ability to fly, racking up a 110 speed fig at this distance, but that was 7 races ago. The last six starts for this guy, however, have produced a 3rd, a 4th, two 5ths, and two 6ths, in descending order. That gives me some worries about  form and/or wear-and-tear factors. He likes being near the lead, and pace may be a limiting factor for this son of Danzig. Another one with a very good shot on his best day, but for me, he’ll have to prove his best days are still within reach.

PP 5 – Wile E. Aardvark (Monarchos x Danzig x Theatrical)  – (jrogue: 18.2%, 48.2%) Somewhat reminiscent of the #1 horse, Cymbalta, this 4 year old is racing in his first graded stakes, but his only other stakes effort, last time out, resulted in a solid win, with a lightning quick speed fig of 108. Was it a fluke? This speed, his first in triple digits, was 9 pts higher than his career high, and he’s had 26 lifetime starts. Unless he’s a very late bloomer, I’d be worried about a bounce of superball proportions. Plus the fact that he runs his best with no one in front of him, and this field will be VERY hard to wire. Could be especially tough on this one if he gets in an extended speed duel. Probably his only solid chance of winning here is to have the other early speed spit the bit early. Possible, but not likely.

PP 6 – Lucky Day  (Danzig x Forty Niner x Buckpasser) – (saddlesore: 22.7%, 55.8%) Another 6 year old, another Danzig relation, and another pace-setter. Not to mention he’ll be right next to the other pure frontrunner in the race. Sounds like a setup for a suicide pace. But there are two major differences between Lucky Day and Wile E. Aardvark: Lucky Day comes into this race in top form (riding a 4 race win streak), and he’s hit triple digits in speed figs in 6 of his last 7 (and the one he missed was with a 99). This guy knows how to win without bouncing. That he can also handle an off track won’t hurt here either (his last outing at 8f on a ‘good’ turf track was a triple digit win). I’m still  not liking a frontrunner to win here, but of the early speed, this guy looks, at least on paper, to be best prepared for it. That said, he also has class questions, as he didn’t handle either of his two graded tries very effectively.

PP 7  – Highest Raider (Alnaab x Seattle Slew x Sovereign Dancer) – (chipendale: 15.9%, 35.9%) Another well-travelled veteran (lining up for his 43rd career start) who’s had some trouble in his last 4 starts, this 5 year old certainly has enough back class to run with these, if he can figure out a way to reverse his recent form. When he’s right, he’s a hard closer, a style that should help his chances for a rebound. But with an average speed fig of a shade over 92 in his last 4, I’d need to see that form get set straight before I’d count on a big share here. Might have enough to close for a check though.

PP 8 – Aim For Paradise (Awesome Again x Caro(IRE) x Alleged) – (sparadise: 8.9%, 28%) The only female in the race sports a pretty shiny record, with 14 of 24 lifetime starts in the money, but she’s really got her hands full with this group. She hasn’t hit triple digits since January, and the only times she’s ever faced the boys were in allowance or lower fields. That said, she’s done pretty well the few times she’s faced them, but I’m not sure she’s fast enough to run down the speed in this race, or to catch the top closers if that speed burns out. Trainer sparadise certainly has the confidence in this gal though.

PP 9 – Listen To The Lion(IRE) (Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) x Irish River(FR) x The Minstrel) – (super10: 20.6%, 48.9%) The omnipresent superstables entry is coming off of a career-best 105 speed figure in a Grade III LTO, and this stalker/closer certainly has a versatile style that w ill help against this field. The big question mark is a bounce. At 4 yrs old and with 25 lifetime races, it’s not likely he’s going through a growth phase, but it certainly is possible. He’s in fine form, and with the right pace, a 14/1 bet might be very good value here, at least in the exotics.

PP 10 – Stereotypical Cat (Tale of the Cat x Broad Brush x Grey Dawn II) – (theleague: 11.1%, 36.6%) This cat is anything but a stereotype, and he figures to be a huge factor in both the pace and the outcome of this race. He’s coming off of a stellar performance LTO, running a 107 speed fig, only to just barely miss the winner’s circle by a quarter length. Unlike several others here who are coming off big races, the 107 wasn’t a career high, and it was preceded by another triple digit jaunt the race before. If there’s a solid to hot pace, and if this Cat can rate off the leaders, he may well have enough in the tank to hold off the closers and run by the early speed.  He will need to show that he can run in Graded stakes though, as his only previous tries in Graded races on the turf have been disappointing.

PP 11 – Gold Inferno (Seeking the Gold x Nureyev x Green Desert) – (correction: 27.2%, 60%) Another deep closer when he fires, this 5 year old has been in a bit of a form slump of late, finishing 6th, 4th, 7th, and 6th in his last 4 outings. He too will need the pace to be very hot early, because when this guy wins, he usually comes from near the back. In this field, there’s a lot of closers to compete with, as well as some good early speed. For my money, he’d need to show a bigtime form reversal to get in the top three, but he’s sure to be passing horses in the stretch. Just how many in this group, remains to be seen.

PP 12 – Ghetto Muppet(IRE) (Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) x Zabeel(NZ) x Polar Falcon) –  (elnop 12.4%, 37.4%) I love the name, and I like the chances for this 2nd-choice in the betting. He’s got speed to spare when he runs his best, owning a blistering 111 speed fig last year, and a 109 LTO. He’s had a couple of bounces in his career off of big speeds prior, but he’s also come back from some big efforts well too. Another stalker type, he’ll have a chance to rate off the leaders, probably jockeying with the PP 9 and 10 horses. Very much in the mix, from a win to a check.