Exploding Across The Pond
It’s a long, long way from Mississippi to Ireland, especially when you’ve never left North America before. But a dearth of graded sprints for handicap mares–and a $225,000 purse–provided a powerful incentive for Pedro’s Racing Empire to ship their star across the pond to Ireland, where filly sprinter Explosive Storm will headline the Grade II Lil’ Leprechaun Dash.
The homebred daughter of Storm Cat was a slow developer, held back from the races until late in her three-year-old season. But patience is often rewarded; she won big at first asking, and repeatedly flashed brilliance on the rollercoaster ride that was her first year at the track. 2005 rolled into 2006 and the filly, turned back to the sprint distances and kept on the main track, became abruptly ultraconsistant and in short order, became a graded stakes winner as well. She’s a recent millionaire and ranked #1 in her division now, with her highlight win coming in the Grade I Dancer Cap; the only recent blemish on her record is versus males. The seven-furlong distance is her speciality and she enters the Lil’ Leprechaun on a two-race winning streak.
But no horse is unbeatable and even champs have bad days. A full field will line up to challenge Explosive Storm. For co-second choice Wakiwild, that means venturing away from her the mile races where she’s recently enjoyed success. She was the winner of the Grade II Wizzer Stakes last out and a close-up second in the Grade II Queen of Kentucky two before that. The Forest Wildcat daughter is consistently stakes-placed at the sprint distances and did win two in her juvenile season, though she’s only cracked the three-digit speed rating barrier at these distances while racing in the slop. Still, she’s running better lately than she ever has, and her best is awfully good.
Wakiwild shares her 6/1 odds with Aniron(Ire), a forty-three-race veteran of the track. The six-year-old daughter of Black Tie Affair(Ire) has done most of her racing at these sprint distances, with her best win coming in last year’s edition of this very race (other previous winners include sim starlet Queen’s Cats). Aniron in fact ran her very first race over this Irish course (she finished second, beaten three-parts of a length) and spent a considerable chunk of time her during her three- and four-year-old campaigns. Her record over the track is 4 – 6 – 1 for 11 and with E.C. Doyle defecting to ride a longshot, she’ll be back in the hands of M. Russel, who piloted her during that very first start.
The favorite recently tipped her earnings over the million dollar mark, and the horse on the inside, Kacymygirl, will follow suit with a good race on Saturday. The grey mare is the only graded stakes winner in four crops for young stallion Macabe. She hit the ground running, was a stakes winner at two, and proved her graded chops with a win in the Grade II Fence Fryer at three. She tends to perform a bit unevenly, maybe due to her front-running style, but has gained some dimension as she’s aged, as shown by her stalking second in the Grade II Manta Serria. She’s the first true speed horse of the field, and that’s how she seems to like it.
But K’s Stand Tall may make things interesting for her. The Mineshaft daughter has a to-die-for female family and it’s done her good: she’s 10-for-20 thus far. She came within three-quarters of a length of being undefeated at two and was second only to Whip Smart in the Grade I Black Middle Flower at three. But the Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation brought her back to the sprint distances for the start of her four-year-old season and she hasn’t left them since. She’s won two stakes this year, but graded victory has eluded her–so far.
Seven-year-old Grease Bare is the elder stateswoman of this field, though that oddball name doesn’t mean she was CPU-bred. The Lammtarra daughter has forty-eight races under her belt. She’s not quite as fast as in her younger days, when she won the Grade III Malek Mile versus colts, but despite that is still going strong; she won her last two, both stakes. She wants a little pace to run at, and it’s worth noting that her best races have come on wet tracks. Her numbers are a little slow over the last year, but if recent history indicates a form reversal, she’s formidable indeed.
Stoners Stables tempted fate in naming their sleek brown Tale of the Cat daughter Hurricane Katrina, but maybe fate respects that. The filly won her first three races and wasn’t lost in what looks like a sneaky auction transfer to her current barn, where she promptly won two more. She’s never won a graded stakes race, but she did manage a show in the Grade I Exam Stakes last summer, and her listed stakes performances are consistently good. Her three-digit/two-digit pattern is of mild concern.
I’ve never had much luck with Ela-Mana-Mou. Some sim breeders swear by him, though, on the bottom line, and Woody Bay(Ire), by Giant’s Causeway, is a nice demonstration of how they may be right. Seveii Stables got this filly a stakes win on the turf before discovering that she’s even better on the dirt. They worked her through her conditions there; she didn’t see stakes company again until her four-year-old season. The careful approach was rewarded with a record of 9-7-2 from 28. Woody Bay opened the year with an allowance win and was second in a listed stakes in March, but she’s mostly struggled and is winless in three months. Allowance placements for a nine-time winner can be tricky to find, but this girl looks in need of a confidence booster.
Initial-heavy namer Pgpg Stables sends Silver Star G, a Silver Deputy four-year-old, to the line. She’s tried a lot of different things in her twenty-eight race career–starting on the turf, and in a twelve-furlong affair–but keeps coming back to the main track sprints, where she’s 6-4-1 for 23. Just one of those wins came in stakes company and she’s only run 100+ speed ratings three times, though two of those came in her last two starts. I wouldn’t kick her out of my barn, but it’s hard to see her being fast enough to earn a check in this company.
The same, I suppose, could be said of Irish-bred Feastfires(Ire) (and likely much of the rest of this field, but we’ll see), but this El Prado daughter out of a Chester House mare is a little more interesting–both by virtue of that turf route pedigree (and her only grass race thus far came on a wet track; I’d be curious to see how she handles it when firm) and for her running lines. Like Silver Star G, her fastest races came in her last two: a 100 and 101, respectively. Before those, she mostly kept to allowance company, and consistently improved her position down the stretch. She raced closer to the pace last out and did grab the lead briefly before being outrun by none other than Explosive Storm. She nosed out the Grade III-placed A.P. Superwoman, and that race may indicate that she fits much better here than her speed figures might suggest.
Same odds, but a different story, for Black Strike. The Smart Strike daughter was the pride of her barn at two: a multiple stakes winner who was worse than second just once in eight starts. She was uneven at three in a long, hard campaign and Wiz2 Stables gave her three full months off before bringing her back in March, in time-restricted allowance company. She’s won three straight races now, including an open allowance last out, and her numbers are improving steadily. This marks her return to stakes company and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her run back to that two-year-old form.
The field’s third Irish-bred is Ray’s Causeway(Ire), daughter of multiple Grade I-winner Murf Ray. Like her dam, Ray’s Causeway is surface-versatile, though she hasn’t yet achieved the same heights of performance. Ace Stables A has been patient, keeping her mostly in allowance company. But she’s very much out of conditions now, and her last three races have come in stakes. She’s wired the last two fields, and in the second-last, beat a Grade II winner in Bolt of Zeus. As with Feastfires, this may be a case of a filly getting good at the right time.
I mentioned E.C. Doyle above: he’s one of Ireland’s top jocks and the regular rider of Aniron. But he declined that mount this time around and instead will ride Skippy, a 20/1 shot. An Afleet daughter out of a Grade II-placed Buckaroo mare, Skippy was one of the fastest juveniles of her class, winning two graded stakes and hitting the board in two more, and a Grade I winner again at three. Her performance since two has been a bit uneven, though, despite admirable versality in surface and distance. Her last four races have been on the turf, where she’s been first and then second (that last in Grade III company), then eleventh and sixth. Scout Racing Syndicate has decided it’s time for another change, and so their millionaire is returning to the dirt. She’s a late-closer who seems to like the seven-furlong distance and may be the classiest horse you’ll ever see go off at 20/1. The question isn’t whether she can run so much as whether she will.
And rounding out our field is the regally-bred Lucky’s Brook Lynn. She was campaigned long and hard at two, winning in Grade I company as well as against colts, and like some others in here, struggled a bit at three. Now four, the Kingmambo daughter has started seven times this year, winning only the first of those, a stakes at this distance. She’ll be moving from the last quarter of the pack, and may not be quite quick enough to catch these.