Chestnut Stakes Grade I

Chestnut Stakes
Grade I
A mile and three eighths
Fast Dirt
$500,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old

The second Grade I on todays card see’s the three year old ladies take to the stage to grind out over 11f on the dirt course. Plenty in with a chance, so lets take a peek at the entrants-

BRADDOCK(IRE) (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x OPERA HOUSE(GB) x DANZIG) simsters5

Has won four from ten and has some nice recent runs but this looks a furlong too far. Looked good over 9-9.5f and should really like 10f but on her last run she bombed at todays trip and I don’t see why she would get it this time. Top five at best.

BLACK TUESDAY(KY) (STORM CAT x KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS) fairhaven2

Talk about bred in the purple! Has some nice recent stakes form over 9f or so and looked on her recent Graded effort to be crying out for this trip. A 99 sp last time up, this could be the day she breaks the 100 and she must be a big threat for the money. Expect a top three.

NANCY’S BOOTS(KY) (GOLDEN MISSILE x NORTHERN BABY x CONQUISTADOR CIELO) qhorseguy

Only won two races but clearly liked this trip latest with a good second in a Grade III and a 101 sp. That alone makes her a threat and she looks nailed on for a top five if not a top three. Expect a big run.

ZARALLANA(IRE) (EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FUSAICHI PEGASUS) sonsierra

Has won half her races and lookedvery good at around a mile, winning a Grade I. However she struggled more than her 97 sp suggests in her latest race over 9f having been closer at the three quarter mark than the finish. It looked as though she ran out of gas and I don’t think she will get 11f.

ROLA(IRE) (GALILEO (IRE) x CAT THIEF x GRAUSTARK) maruxa

Has some solid form and has won a stakes over 9.5f but struggled to get home over 9f in Graded company and a step up to 11f looks against her. Clearly has ability but would be happier at around a mile. Opposable on that basis and may struggle.

PRAVDA(KY) (KINGMAMBO x PLEASANT COLONY x DANZIG) super10

A super srables runner which means we’re supposed not to like her but she lovely bred and has some talent as judged by her recent graded run over 8f. Thats the problem though, she was not as good over 9f and this big jump to 11f looks a shot in the dark. I don’t think she’l handle the trip. (f in time yes but not 11f. Look out for her over 8-9f though as she has lots of talent.

SNAPPY HERO(AUS) (SNAPPY LANDING x SEFAPIANO x SEA HERO) graywolf7

Don’t know what to make of her. Cheaply bred but has a couple of Graded wins. Her sp’s have been getting slower though and that’s a bad sign. May well handle the jump in trip but may not. If she does she’l be a threat, if niot she’l be nearer last.

REBELDE(KY) (GRAND SLAM x BARATHEA(IRE) x STORM OF ANGELS) bizalls1

Yet another who won’t handle the trip. Has been as much as 7 lengths ahead at half way in 8f races before getting caught near the line or just holding on. She screaming for 6-7f and could be a real star at that trip but 11f looks way too far. She will be leading at halfway but by 9f could well be in last place. What a waste, GET HER IN A SPRINT.

NONE TOO SHABBY(JPN) (CHARISMATIC x ALYDAR x NATIVE DANCER) beefcake2

At the risk of repeating myself, another who looks to be crying out for 6-7f and not a hike in trip to 11f. Nothing suggests she’l stay this far and I cannot see her reaching the money. Might be a different story at 6f though.

BIG COZZ(KY) (COZZENE x BERING(GB) x ZABEEL(NZ)) bigeasy

Finally a filly who promises to see out the trip. She has improved for every risein trip, including a third place in a 9.5f GradeI recently. Promises to break the 100 sp barrier today and looks nailed on for a top five ot better. Must be a big threat at a big price.

BOTTOMOFTHENINTH(KY) (GRAND SLAM x FORT WOOD x TITANIC) pharaoh

Hard to get a read on this one. Some nice stakes runs and she stays 9f, but will she stay 11f. She might in which case she could get some money. If not she’l be in the scrum at the back with the legion of other horses running out of steam.

LOVE NEVER DIE(IRE) (SINNDAR (IRE) x NUREYEV x ALYDAR) toplight

Hmm do we have a winner. Should stay on breeding and has won more than half her races including a recent Grade I. If she stays the trip she’l run a 108 and win this and that looks a reasonable proposition to me. The likely winner.

AWESOMESEEKNGOLD(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x SEEKING THE GOLD x NIJINSKY II) thebear20

My goodness, another who promises to stay todays trip. Has a closing third and fourth over recent 8.5f and 9f races and looks primed for a big run. Again has the breeding for this trip and I expect her to reach the top two with a big sp, say 106.

TUBIA(KY) (PULPIT x MACHIAVELLIAN x POLAR FALCON) bellissimo

Another miler in disguise. The manner of her recent defeat at 9f and 9.5f suggests a mile would be ideal, but instead she up to 11f. She will not stay and can only reach the money because so many other here might stay even less ! Still she looks a nice graded filly but not at this trip.

CONCLUSION-

With only three or four of the field looking to stay the trip it looks like a win for LOVE NEVER DIE(IRE.