High Rollers and Longshots

The first Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile was run in 2000, at the same 6f distance and for the same $250,000 purse that will define this weekend’s event.  The winner on that day was Event Cat in his second start.  Event Cat went on to a fitful, injury-plagued career, but farther back in that field were multiple Grade I winner Sadler’s Mill, Travelers and Sand Castle Classic winner Pleasant Nijinsky, and three-year-old star Buckschott.

The race has never since been quite so packed with eventual superstars, but each year the field has turned out quite a few useful animals, and most can claim a major highlight.  The 2003 field included High Otto, who went on to win The Delaware Mile over a wet track.  2004 winner Scotian Kid missed the Triple Crown, but was a player in the rest of that year’s three-year-old races.  And tucked away in third place in the 2005 field was Bluegrass Derby and New Yorker winner Virtuoso.

It’s too early to predict the overall quality of last year’s class, but E Buda and Lucky’s Capital(Eng) are both graded winners at three.

That’s some heady company, and an awful lot to expect from a two-year-old in June.  But fourteen will line up on Saturday hoping to become the next Virtuoso or Pleasant Nijinsky, and history will tell.

This year’s favorite, Speedtown, is off to a pretty good start.  The Speightstown colt is out of Queen of Gold, a Danzig mare who herself was a stakes winner at two.  He seems to have inherited her speedy ways.  Speedtown won his first start and gutted out a narrow stakes victory in his second over the very promising Alyslew III BG.  His 81 speed rating there was remarkable, and rider F. Holmes is reliably good.

Life Is A Storm (Storm Cat x Rahy mare) can’t boast those gaudy numbers; his best to date was a 67, earned last out.  But then, he hasn’t needed them yet.  His debut race was strikingly professional: he pressed the leader and then put his neck in front at just the right time.  Last out, Right At Home Stables tried him on the turf and was rewarded with a free-wheeling stakes victory.  His connections seem to be in a rebuilding phase–the oldest horse in the barn is three–and a good run from Life Is A Storm would get their new incarnation off to a good start.

Co-second choice Melting Pot is a son of Freud, from Our Emblem mare Material Filly.  His connections have handled him carefully, stepping from MSW to an entry-level allowance to open allowance company, and the brown colt has answered with three stylish wins and a steady increase in speed numbers.  That last race came over a “good” track and part of the game on Saturday will be to guess how much that aided him.

Young sire Afleet Alex is represented by Coomer3 Stables‘s boldly-named Adonai.  A winner at first asking, was second in his last two races with decent numbers.  It’s worth noting that he was shuffled a bit farther back than usual, last time out, and didn’t seem to be fazed.

Here’s De Lemon has followed a path similar to Melting Pot’s, though swapping that open allowance for an overnight stakes.  The Lemon Drop kid son won only his first race, but paired up speed ratings of 73 while third and second in the other two.  A stalker by preference, he has the pedigree to enjoy longer distances as they become available.

Qwikkvett Stables isn’t one ofthose operations that slaps their barn name on every young horse they breed, so we have to assume that they saw something special in Qwikvett Express.  He’s a strapping son of Point Given, out of a winning Woodman mare.  Qwikvett Express has shown a good turn of foot in two starts now, winning first a maiden race and then a stakes, and though the higher speed rating was “only” a 71, he runs like a colt that’s not going to do more than he has to, thanks.

Sim breeders seem a little skeptical about first-year sire Lion Tamer, but that may change if nmore of them get a peek at Lion Stormcat.  The Graywolf empire showed some faith in sending him Our Families, a Storm Cat mare who has two stakes-placed runners in three previous foals (all winners).  Lion Stormcat needed two tries to break his maiden and was second last out in stakes company, run down in the stretch after leading from the start.  Speed ratings are solid low 70s.

As breeding bargains go, it’s hard to beat Belong to Me.  The Danzig son sits in the top 25 on the leading sire lists, but he’s routinely available for credits (or relatively few points) late in the week.  The Dundey Acres crew crossed him with their Crafty Prospector mare and got Belong To Who.  The liver chestnut colt has three comfortable wins from as many starts.  The last two came on the turf and it’ll be fun to see what happens when he sets foot back on the main track.

In the tradition of namesthataresentences, M&J Stables sends out Inittowinit, a Forest Danger son out of a Coronado’s Quest mare.  A front-running sort, he broke his maiden at second asking and followed it up with a stakes win.  His numbers have improved each time out and Forest Danger’s only stakes winner from his first crop is graded-stakes placed.  Maybe Inittowinit will make two?

Maliboy‘s debut was inauspicious.  The Mingun son from a Bering mare made his first run in allowance company and scrambled along before settling for fifth.  He needed the race, afterward Spinround Stables was seen working him in company with their several old veterans, hoping some of their professionalism would rub off.  Lesson learned: Maliboy wired the field next time out.  He was third in a short-field stakes last out and rateability remains a concern, though W. Railey is a savvy jock.

Intimidatingly-named The Boneslinger (Reset x Eight Dust – Forty Niner) has been run on a semi-aggressive schedule for a two-year-old at this time in the year.  Seventh on the turf at first asking, he found his footing when switched to the dirt and won.  Two more races brought two third-place finishes, once in stakes company.  His numbers are a little slow, but his style and that of his stakes-placed big brother suggests he’ll appreciate the added half-furlong.

Speaking of ought-to-like further.  Lead For Chachin is a daughter of Leading the Parade, an AP Indy son who broke his maiden going nine furlongs at three.  Dam Clear the Tub (Cryptoclearance) did her best running at a mile plus.  So maybe it’s a sign of disproportionate promise that Lead For Chachin won her second race at just five furlongs.  Her best numbers thus far are a step slow for these, though, and the fillies don’t seem to be maturing more quickly than the colts this year.

Rounding out the High Roller field are a pair of Pennsylvania-breds, the first by Genuino, who’s produced just ten sim offspring (three winners) in as many crops.  He’s represented here by Favorite Ace, out of a durable winning Impeachment mare, and it looks like Runstowin Stables may have gotten a real bargain.  A narrow winner at first asking for a $13,500 tag, Favorite Ace was wheeled right back into an entry level allowance and responded with a huge run, winning comfortably with a 79 speed rating.  It’s anyone’s guess whether that was a fluke and the top Nevada jockeys have opted to go elsewhere–but that race puts him on level with any of the favorites here, and 26/1 may prove the best deal of the day.

Doyochainhanglo is this year’s why-not? entry, a maiden son of Banker’s Gold out of an Outflanker mare.  He’s been third twice (in four-horse fields) and second once at the $60,000 level.  His front-running style may get him burned in this field well-stocked with classy speed; it’ll take one heckuva turf-to-dirt boost to put him in front at the wire.

Two-year-olds are unpredictable, and none of the favorites strike me as a lock.  Heck–we’re in Nevada.  I’ll take Favorite Ace for the win.