SHIN BROOK Challenge Stakes
What appears to be a very evenly matched field of eight older horses takes to the gate in Saturday’s feature race at Vermont in the $65,000 SHIN BROOK Challenge Stakes. The event will be contested on the turf course at a distance of a mile and 5/16. The field in order of postposition, with early betting odds:
MAD AXE MAN II (19 4-4-6 $150,109)) [2/1] The 4-year-old early betting favorite is coming off a second place finish in the YOUR COVER STAKES. He has recorded previous SP ratings of 100+, but all of these have been at a slightly shorter distance than today. His only previous lifetime attempt at a distance at least equivalent to today’s race was a second place allowance run. While still looking for his first stakes win, he did finish third in a Grade III event earlier this year. Racing for owner/breeder sdmf, he is sired by RED RANSOM and will be ridden by this tracks leading jockey, S. Gravina (14%). He prefers to run up front and should be one of the early pace setters here, but question is can he hold at this distance.
GREENMANTLE (13 5-3-0 $123,546) [10/1] This lightly raced 4-year-old sired by THEATRICAL races for owner/breeder nsw and is the only stakes winner produced so far by the multiple stakes winning mare GREEN FUTURE. He is enjoying a breakout year with two wins and a second in 5 stakes outings. His lifetime best SP of 100 came over 12 furlongs so could like this distance, although more recent times this year indicate he may have a harder time with this field. Ridden by B Langhorne (11%), his preference seems to be to settle in just off the pace in preparation for a big stretch finish.
BRIGADIER ROCK (43 6-7-8 $144,566) [5/1] Having made a career at the allowance level, this 6-year-old looks for his first stakes win today, with four previous stakes attempts in 43 career outings. Sired by the producer of multiple graded stakes winners, ROCK OF GIBRALTOR, he is one of two in this field racing for owner/breeder hills. Not blessed with an abundance of early speed, his best outings usual come from mid-pack or further back. Jockey M Stearns (13%) gets the reins.
GREY STORMY DAY (19 3-5-2 $143,036) [12/1] The other half of the two-horse entry out of the hills stable, this 4-year-old by DAYLAMI is another seeking his first stakes win. He has a lot of experience at this and further distances, but past performances and SP ratings seem to indicate he may need a step up in performance to run with this field. Jockey L. L. Ahrens (13%) gets the assignment and will look to bring him from off pace.
STAR POTENTIAL (22 5-1-4 $93,100) [8/1] This 4-year-old has won two of four allowance starts, including last time out, since being claimed for $35,000 by current owner jodggtx at the end of last year. Sired by ALDEBARAH, he makes his lifetime debut at the stakes level today with jockey Z Ruzek (8%) and stretches out for an extra half-furlong over longest previous outing. While he’s shown glimpses of early speed, best efforts seem to come from off the pace.
ANIMAL INSTINCT (8 2-4-2 $55,469) [5/1] This 4-year-old hasn’t missed the board in only 8 lifetime starts. With outstanding breeding (A. P. INDY x KRIS S. x NATIVE DANCER) he did not get his first start until late in his 3-year-old season. Coming off a third last time out in his first stakes attempt for owner/breeder lenny12, he appears primed for a big effort here. Jockey G Bungard (5%) will look to have him at or very near the front from the start.
THE TWO (24 6-2-4 $134,352) [6/1] Coming off a dismal outing last time out when he finished 7th and well back in the S. DANCE Handicap Stakes, this 5-year-old looks to rebound today for owner/breeder mybabay with jockey M Jolly (7%) up. He is sired by ALBERT THE GREAT, who has produced only two stakes winners. Although he has a lifetime best SP of 100 over 11 furlongs, all five previous stakes attempts have been unproductive.
FREAKISH PEDRO (23 5-4-5 $220,650) [4/1] While he has won previously at the stakes level, the 4-year-old has not attempted that level yet this year. Very consistent performer up to 9 furlongs, he may not like the extra distance today. The second RED RANSOM sired entry in this field, his dam AMY BAND has produced two graded stakes winners. Racing for the turbo12 stable and ridden by C Wolff (10%), he could have trouble if unable to get a clean break in order to run near the front.
After picking the runner up again last week, I hope to improve by one spot this week: Not a lot of early speed here, which may allow the favorite and early leader MAX THE MAN to run off and hide, especially if he doesn’t get much early pressure from the likes of FREAKISH PEDRO and ANIMAL INSTINCT. Most likely late runs should come from BRIGADIER ROCK and GREEN MANTLE. I’ve got to go with the favorite here, MAX THE MAN, with GREEN MANTLE to place and ANIMAL INSTINCT to show.