The Sheepherder Beach Handicap G3
The
3238.0415
Momma Mia it’s Magical
By Pitcairn37
This Saturday’s running of the $150,000 G3 Sheepherder’s Beach Handicap will be the 8th annual run for fillies and mares 3yo and up on the 11F turf course in
ICE CREAM SOCIAL 4yo mare breaks from PP1 at 5-1 odds, bred from ALDEBARAN x GRAUSTARK x HAIL TO REASON and trained by ice chaser. This will be the first G3 run for this mare, although she is ranked 32 in the turf distance division. She has done well since coming over from dirt to turf with 11 of 14 races ITM. Last 7 races have been stakes, and she notched 4 wins 2 seconds and an 8th. SP ratings over the last two races at 11F were 100-101, were she went wire to wire. This in form lady looks like a good bet to be ITM at the end on Saturday.
MAGICAL MIA 5yo mare in PP2 at odds of 3-1 is bred from
COMFORTABLY PIE 4yo mare breaks from PP3 at 12-1 odds, bred from SILVER GHOST x SADLER’S WELLS x WOODMAN and trained by bushmonste. A pace setter, this mare has only raced in 3 stakes races with one 2nd to show for it. Had her 2nd place finish over 11F with a SP rating of 98, but has been in the 80-90 range last times out. Ranked 280th in the long turf division she will be tested on Saturday.
GET WHAT YOU NEED 5yo mare breaks from PP4 at 6-1 odds, bred from SEEKING THE GOLD x A.P. INDY x NORTHERN DANCER and trained by dokki2. Runner in 5 stakes with a 1st and two 3rds to show for it, this mare seems to run best on off tracks. She won a G2 10F on yielding turf with a SP rating of 100. Seems to like slightly shorter 9-10F distances best and has lost ground in the stretch in last 11F races. Tends to run from the middle of the pack.
NATIVE SWAN 4yo mare in PP5 at 11-1 odds is bred from CROWD PLEASER x NUREYEV x COASTAL and trained by db. This mare has a string of 8 of 8 ITM finishes in stakes and G3 company on firm turf. Successful from 10F to 16F and ranked 57th in the long turf division this will be her first stakes run at 11F. She has shown SP ratings from 87-96 recently as she runs from the back of the pack. Interesting breeding, her sire, CROWD PLEASER, is a low cost son of A.P. INDY, her dame is Grade F mare, NUREYEV NATIVE, who has also produced another graded stakes winner as well.
PUBLIK ENEMY 5yo mare breaking from PP6 at 9-1 odds is bred from RAINBOW QUEST x SEEKING THE GOLD x NUREYEV and trained by pygmalion. This mare has run in 15 career turf stakes races winning 6 and ITM in 3 others. Has won at 11F with SP rating of 100, but that was a year ago. Recently has thrown 3 clinkers in last 5 turf races. She tends to run from the middle to back of the pack, but will need a return to form to finish ITM here.
BLING 5yo mare in PP7 at 5-1 odds is bred from HORSE CHESTNUT x PENTELCUS x SOVEREIGN DANCER and trained by safrace2. This mare has wins in a 8.5F G2 and a 9F G3 at SP ratings of 103-106. However in her seven stakes races has yet to be ITM at over 9F. Will need to show that she can come all the way from the back at 11F. Her sire, HORSE CHESTNUT is an interesting sire standing in SAF that has produced a few stakes and graded stakes winners including 2yo and older.
KRYSZOSTONIAK 6yo mare in PP8 at 9-1 odds is bred from CRYPTOCLEARANCE x GATE DANCER x RAISE A NATIVE and trained by tfortiger. A former $2500 claimer, this mare has finished ITM in 25 of 30 trips on the turf with 10 of those ITM finishes in 14 stakes races. A pace setter she has been putting up SP ratings in the high 80’s to mid 90’s, she will be trying to hang on to a top spot down the stretch and may surprise with perhaps the track’s best jockey, A Rolling, on board.
A.P. ANDY 5yo mare in PP9 at 15-1 odds is bred from A.P.INDY x UNBRIDLED X RAHY and trained by andycapper. This mare has run in 19 stakes races but only has 5 ITM finishes. Still ranked 73rd in the long turf division she will have to step up here as her most recent SP ratings have been in the low 90’s. Won last time out at 11F with a 92 SP rating in stakes company, coming from just off the pace.
STOP THE GROOM T 5yo mare in PP10 at 6-1 odds is bred from RUNAWY GROOM x SADLER’S WELLS x STOP THE MUSIC and trained by priceless. In 25 stakes races this mare has 18 ITM finishes with 8 wins. Rated 16th in the long turf division this mare will have to improve on last years finish in this race, as she was beaten down the stretch finishing 4th. She likes to set the pace or lie just off, and has shown 100 SP ratings recently, but has also lost places in the stretch run. Jockey Er Anderson who has only saddled 40 mounts this season does not inspire confidence in a return to form for this lady.
Outlook
I look for pace setters ICE CREAM SOCIAL, COMFORTABLY PYE, KRYSZOSTONIAK, and STOP THE GROOM T to battle it out in the first 6F with ICE CREAM SOCIAL and STOP THE GROOM T outlasting the other pace setters. MAGICAL MIA will lead the charge to the front down the stretch with GET WHAT YOU NEED, NATIVE SWAN, PUBLIK ENEMY, BLING, and A.P.ANDY trying to make a move. I think GET WHAT YOU NEED, PUBLIK ENEMY, A.P. ANDY, and BLING will fade with NATIVE SWAN and MAGICAL MIA battling ICE CREAM SOCIAL and STOP THE GROOM T for the money. I will box a trifecta of MAGICAL MIA (3-1), ICE CREAM SOCIAL (5-1), and NATIVE SWAN (11-1) with STOP THE GROOM T getting 4th again, although it is tempting to toss KRYSZOSTONIAK into the mix.