North American Sire Stats Analysis

I did some statistical analysis on actual real world sires based in North America. I used data from 2015, 2016 primarily with some backup from 2017 numbers.

Criteria for the analysis. The stallion must still be alive and must stand part or entire season in North America. The data collected is based on worldwide results not just North American results, so data from Europe, Australia, Asia etc is included. Only the top 100 sires were evaluated to eliminate skewed numbers due to lower numbers of starters.

The follow sires meet a threshold of 10% Black Type Horses and 5% Graded Stakes Horses in both 2015 and 2016. Black type and graded horse means foals that have participated in black type and graded competition, this does not reflect winning percentage in those races. I chose to use these numbers to illustrate overall quality of the stallion rather than focusing on the smaller sample size of winners of those races.

Tapit
Medaglia D’Oro
War Front
Uncle Mo
Curlin
Speightstown
Ghostzapper

The following sires meet that threshold in either 2015 or 2016

Bernardini
Kitten’s Joy
Tiznow
Pioneerof the Nile
Into Mischief
Lookin at Lucky
Quality Road
Twirling Candy
Majesticperfection
Giant Gizmo

Honorable mention for horses close to but not meeting the threshold in recent years.

Giant’s Causeway
More than Ready
Mizzen Mast
Flatter
Sky Mesa
Munnings
Union Rags
Street Boss
Candy Ride

Up and comers not mentioned already that are showing very good early numbers.

Maclean’s Music
Jimmy Creed
Dialed In
Kantharos
Gemologist

Some interesting numbers for the current year.

War Front leads in percentage of Graded runners at 9.52%

Uncle Mo leads in black type runners at 14.47%

Medaglia D’Oro leads in Grade 1 winners at 2.35%

Dialed In leads in percentage of black type winners at 7.79%

Twirling Candy leads in percentage of winner to starters at 60.42%

Using this information and comparing to stats in the SIM there are some very obvious differences. So it is important to reference SIM stats and compare to the real world. Sires like Twirling Candy, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky, Munnings, Street Boss and others have minimal production in the game vs real world returns. While others like Awesome Again, Street Sense, and Zensational produce well in the sim yet in the real world they just don’t produce.

Using real world information is part of the fun in breeding horses for the game, but it is important to also cross check that information with how the sim produces. I’ve been a victim of not doing my homework in the sim statistics and basing my information solely on real world information. I’m sure I am not the only one. I think there are opportunities to grab under valued sire shares and hope they are upgraded next year, but you are rolling the dice. I think the opposite is true also, so if you’re hoarding Awesome Again shares, you might want to use those before he gets a much deserved downgrade in the sim.

Over the next few days I will also evaluate European based stallions in the same fashion and report on my findings here in the BTB.