The Many Plus Sea: Isn’t It Ironic? Don’cha Think?
Goody goody gumdrops, my first two-year-old stakes to write about this season.
These things are tough. You think gold is a speculative venture? Try understanding the follies and foibles of a large batch of new horses who by Memorial Day are very lucky if they’ve run more than twice. Still, I believe that “children” are our future. Teach them well, and let them lead the way. Show them all the beauty they possess inside. Give them a sense…OK, I’ll stop. My point: a two-year-old race in May is truly a National Bingo Night. Pedigree usually will out, but you just don’t know for certain.
This is what makes Germany’s $90,000 Many Plus Sea Special Stakes as intriguing as most other spring juvenile races. No horse has more than two starts, and one horse comes out of the womb in stakes company. You can’t beat National Bingo Night in Germany. Looking over the entries, the striking thing about this batch of two-year-old ankle-biters is just how evenly matched the pedigrees are; a bargain pedigree is apt to do as well as a white-collar horse. The same can be said for the tacticians, as speed is good but closers are also equal to the task. But the bizarre part of it all? The firster in the field is favored!
Nehi Orange [Unbridled’s Song-Windham County, by A.P. Indy, trained by hillhouse] draws the rail, and somewhat unfairly, the impressive debut winner is second-choice in the wagering. A Kentucky-bred filly representing the lilbitfarm outfit, she used her distance pedigree to wait out the early speed in her California debut and won by a head with a 67. The pedigree suggests good things for her as distances increase, and even the grass holds some prospects. She’s got tactical speed, the rail and the top jockey in Germany, and about the only iffy thing is the cutback in distance from six to five-and-a-half. She doesn’t hold the best speed figure here, but is certainly bound to improve with more of an education in terms of strategy laying further from the lead; even though you do understand the reasoning behind why the morning-line lists her as a second choice, it’s still a surprise to see her at only 7/5.
Barb’s Zippy [Cee’s Tizzy-Barb’s Cindy, by Rubiano, trained by mattbarn] is part of the jakematt operation, and the California-bred has been outsourcing herself in Tanzania, where in two starts she has a miaden win in which she improved her speed figures from 58 to 66. Both of those races were at five furlongs, and so she stretches out a sixteenth in stakes company. Certainly the added distance doesn’t figure to help or hinder her abilities, with a sprinter’s pedigree; her he-mare dam was 8-for-65 lifetime, all wins in sprints, so that should be up her alley even this early in the season. The 66 versus maidens is alright here, but figures to dip just a tad against winners, and the stalking tactics also should fit nicely in a tactically balanced field. Watch her this fall, particularly versus Cal-breds, but an open stakes in Germany with some well-bred gamers this early might only get a share of the purse, even with the circuit’s second-best jockey on board.
Chateau Shadow [Dane Shadow(AUS)-Chateau Goer, by Best Of The Bests(IRE), trained by chateau2] was bred in Australia for the outfit of kirby55, and spent her time sprinting in Asia, breaking her maiden last out. The win was a fair one versus a short field of three other foes, but only earned a 57, and while the general impression is that of a filly only doing as much as required to earn the win, she theoretically should have improved the numbers off a decent debut race, which was a 59. She likes to close, and got the maiden win at this distance, yet the refusal even against a short field of her speed figure to even marginally improve is sort of a red flag. But that’s just on dirt. She’s the first foal of a four-time stakes winner on grass, and the dam also won four times at 2 overall. So, her mom’s precocious, and her dad is is a son of Danehill, which usually hints at solid grass ability. Against dirt sprinters, her chances are only moderate, but when she inevitably switches surfaces, keep your eye on a potentially fierce competitor on the lawn.
British Pine [British Blue x Country Pine, trained by themole] does my bargain-breeding heart proud. She’s a Kentucky-bred maiden, but the pedigree belies her abilities, having hit the board twice in just two starts, and earning a 65 last out when second. She’s a big-balloon representative of the bizalls group, having led for most of her debut before fading to third at 67-1, and then stalked the lead when she was an even and game second last out, at 22-1. The speed figure last out, 65, can be deceiving, considering it’s a maiden stepping up to an open-company stakes race, but the speed figures are in theory designed a little bit to measure a horse’s ability versus other horses regardless of the class level. So, ideally, that 65 is supposed to translate well among this field of two-year-olds, regardless of whether they themselves have ever won a race or not. 65 is good. It’s just not all that great when compared to racing against maidens, where it would shine at this stage of development. She’s 22-1 again here, and has a distinct turn of foot when needed. But she’s the main speed in a field of talented and established closers and stalkers, and she doesn’t figure to hold her ground versus winners designed to improve off their respective maiden wins. Consider, though, that people said this before her debut at 67-1 before she scared everyone.
Hampden Park [Dalakhani(IRE)-Turnaround Tara, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by albarace0] represents the blacksoxuk amalgamation, and she’s the favorite. She is making her career debut in this stakes race, and she’s 6/5 against some established runners. It’s a reach, pedigree aside; the sire was the 2003 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion, and Europe’s Horse Of The Year in 2003 as well, plus the dam’s pedigree is that blue-blooded Unbridled’s Song x Danzig nick. But the dam was 2-for-25 lifetime, with a win on either surface and a win both sprinting and routing, and was nothing spectacular on the track. The odds here are highly speculative, and based on potential and breeding costs. But it’s hard to make a case for this one in particular. It’s not based on bias or the bloodlines, but just on the idea that this one is bred for much longer than this five-and-a-half furlong race versus unproven but still very solid opposition. If this filly had been bred later in the year and was making a debut in a traditional maiden special weight race, low odds would be easier to swallow. But even this time of year, a firster in a stakes race with a field of experience larger than four is too risky to chance, so at least for this race, the gut instinct is to pass.
Sehr Gut [Danske(NZ) x Kenmare(FR), trained by scootboy] is a New Zealand-bred who, since there is yet to be a New Zealand track in the Sim despite lobbying and hope for some kind of expansion, made her debut over this track on March 23. She closed stalwartly against a four-and-a-half furlong allowance field to be third with a 65. Then, on April 28, she circled the field dropping down into a MSW, winning by a length with a 64. Running out of the scootboy operation’s mothership, she’s got the closing kick that can be very solid when stretching out versus other juveniles. It’s also quite possible the allowance debut gives her a certain edge, having faced superior opposition earlier in her career while most of the others are just now coming out of maiden races; in fact, she’s the only one to have already faced “winners” (with an asterisk, as early two-year-old allowace races can often just be higher profile MSWs). She should improve some off that maiden win, and is one of only two who prefer the late charge, which the lone speed might not be able to withstand. Look for her to close with a flourish late, and the veteran leadership against better foes could be the difference-maker.
Subtle Irony [Good Reward x Machiavellian, trained by bmr004] has the outside post here, which doesn’t figure to hurt his closing run. The operative from the bmr005 enterprise won her debut with a field-best speed figure of 69, and did so with a strong late run going six furlongs. She turns back and steps up in class here, and figures to improve on her debut in an inexperienced field. She’s not the most well-bred one here, bred in Kentucky, but her debut was more impressive than most. And the pedigree is suggestive more of somewhat-shorter distances than Nehi Orange. The jockey selection could make a big difference, as her rider is just 5-for-47 this year; that’s still an 11% win percentage, but well below the 26% of the circuit leader on the rail. This one could have the most future upside, but does face a couple of stellar threats. Watch her closing late as well, particularly if there’s a reasonably faster pace or larger deficit to make up late.
My selections:
1. Subtle Irony
2. Nehi Orange
3. Sehr Gut
4, Hampden Park
5. Barb’s Zippy
Good luck to all, and happy racing.