Big Race Preview 3231
Three big G1 events this week two of those take place in
Race: 3231.0115 Movieland Turf Cup – Grade I – $400,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf
Just seven runners are present for this race but there might be a reason horses went somewhere else this week. Strong Belwas is your favorite and I think this is one of the top two or three long distance turf horses going right now in the sim. He beat a very solid field last time out taking the G1 Fatman’s Revenge. His only loss this year was to
Skills in Magic is not the second favorite here but he is probably the most accomplished runner other than the favorite in this race. At this distance he has been very good. He was a really good two and three year old and now at four he looks to continue that trend. It has been a while since his last win, you have to go back to last November when he won the G1 Coxless Stakes. He is really good at this distance, run him shorter or longer and he does not give you quite the same effort. His last was a bit shorter and he closed well to get third earning a 99 speed figure. He looks in good form and this deep closer could be the only one gaining on our strong pace setter in the end.
Ollie’s Gone is the second favorite but he has made his name at slightly shorter distances. His running style suggests this distance will be no problem for him as he comes from off the pace and he really is not stretching out very much. The dam of Ollie’s Gone was a miler and Ollie’s Gone’s sire is Gone West. So even though it is not much distance it could that threshold for Ollie’s Gone. His speed figures are good and his last was a strong closing run to finish second so he is in good form.
The inside post contains a long shot in this field Creepshow. Creepshow is a millionaire. He got off to a good start as a three year old winning a couple of G1 races. He tailed off later in the year but this guy is just four years old. He appears to really like this distance and still has room to grow. His first start of the year was horrible and came out of that needing some more time off. He rebounded with an authoritative allowance win. Then followed that up with a listed stakes win last time out by four and three quarters lengths. He is in great form ready for a big effort so watch for this long shot.
Race: 3231.0114 My Girl Handicap – Grade I – $400,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Nine pretty competitive fillies and mares gather for the My Girl Handicap. Bush Wins Again is the slight favorite in the race. This five year old mare by Tiznow is on a great roll right now. She has won three races in a row including the G2 Original Margarita and the G1 Orange Blossom. Last time out was a prep run in a listed stakes where she won yet again so as far as form goes it is hard to find a horse running this well. She is a stalker and should have good position early. She runs good speed figures and has the look here of a very tough favorite.
If left alone on the lead September Royalty could wire this field. This a speed filly that has shown the ability to go to the lead, set a quick pace and hold on in the end earning big speed figures. She just wired the field in the G2 Painful Thorn Stakes earning a 106 speed figure. Her consistency is not what it was when she was younger and in recent times she has not been able to put together back to back good performances. Still watch her closely if left alone on the lead.
Master and Command is an old veteran of thirty four races. She is a stalker or mid pack runner that has run really consistently since switching to the dirt. She is capable of the big speed figure just like others here but she has just one graded win and that was a G3 win. Her last couple of races have been on the board finishes in the G1 Orange Blossom and G2 Mike’s Hometown Cap. She is getting to that age where her chances of capturing a G1 are getting fewer and fewer.
The Black Middle Flower winner from last year was Whip Smart. In three starts as a four year old now she has won two while finishing second in the other. She won the G2 Mike’s Hometown Cap last time out by two lengths. She is a stalker type and should have plenty of company in stalking the pace today. She has room to improve at four and could be ready to be one of the top older mares. She still needs to improve her speed figures a bit if she wants to compete on this level.
Based on last race speed figure alone take a look at Point to Ben. She has won two in a row and last time out in a listed stakes she exploded with a 107-speed figure. She sits at the back but not far off the pace and if that last race speed figure is any indication she could surprise a few here.
Race: 3231.0414 Cosmopolitan Handicap – Grade I – $750,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Dirt
This is one of the premier one mile events in the sim and with the addition of a Breeder’s Bowl race at this distance and on the dirt surface this race takes on a little more importance. Festive Fifty is our favorite and deservingly so. He has won four of his last five races including earning speed figures of 112, 109 and 114 in his last three. He does it in long sprints and he does it in mile races. This four year old colt will be coming from off the pace and looks very tough here.
One Wild Cat has been pretty impressive himself. He has won his last two races with speed figures of 110 and 111. That was at a mile and then at seven furlongs respectively both graded races. One Wild Cat is usually on the pace at a mile but in his sprint races he can come from just off the pace as well. So his tactical speed should get him well placed early here and with his recent form it is hard not to see him as a player at the end.
Musicality has won three of his last five races consistently running solid speed figures of 107,108,108,107 and 107. He is more of a route runner not really trying the long sprints unlike the top two. He has been very good at the mile distance and a little further. He is a four year old so you would thing he is in his prime and can still improve a bit. He comes from way off the pace and will be one of those closing well late.
San Pellegrino dropped back to the one mile distance last time out and exploded with a 112 speed figure. He is going to be over looked here. He has mostly been running in longer router races and competing with some very good runners. This one mile distance may be more to his liking. He is a mid pack runner and if he is on he will be in the mix at the top of the stretch.
Zygote won the Winchester Cap over this very course three races back with a very impressive 113 speed figure. He ran a solid third in his next race after that and last time out he did not look as well at a mile and an eighth. Back at a distance he is proven at over a course he burned up earlier this year makes him a player here. This son of A.P. Indy is a mid pack type runner than is very capable of the big speed figure.