Big Race Preview 3224

Just two grade one events this week. The Middle Jewel and the Black Middle Flower. Both the winners of the Bluegrass Derby and the Bluegrass Oaks are set to take the next step toward winning the big three. The colts look so competitive every runner in the field looks to have a chance. The fillies are not much different which sets up for a short but very sweet week on the grade one scene.

Race: 3224.0815 Middle Jewel Stakes – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and three sixteenths on the Dirt

Win the Derby and you are not even the favorite in the Middle Jewel. Ataun has only won four of his last five starts including the most prestigious three year old race. He has been consistent earning 101 speed figures in his last two races. There are a couple of rivals that have posted better speed figures however each one of those took place on an off track. The track is fast for this one and with his consistency it is hard not to see him being a big player at the end of this race. I think this group of three year olds is very evenly matched though and Ataun will have his work cut out for him coming from off the pace.

Young Passing Stone nearly took the derby in just his sixth career start. He got caught at the wire only losing by a head and gets the chance to turn the tables on Ataun. He showed he can sit off the pace nicely and pounce on the pace setters. That running style should make him a major player and with the pace setter from the Bluegrass also running here he should have a good pace to run at. He improves he probably wins.

I think you have to take a look at a couple of horses that skipped the Bluegrass. All Flags Gold is very similar to Passing Stone with just five career races. He suffered his first loss last time out losing by three quarters of a length in the Chicago Derby. He is a very well bred mid pack runner that could give these runners turning around on two weeks rest a fit in the stretch.

Peppet might be an off track specialist but he deserves a little respect here. He will need to prove he can run a top speed figure on a fast track but his 106 speed figure on an off surface is super impressive. He tuned up for this one taking a listed stakes at this distance with a solid speed figure. He won with ease and could very well be sitting on a big race.

Henianlauch set the pace in the Bluegrass and was pretty close to wiring the field. He carried a two length lead into the stretch and he did not get past until very late in the race. He was only a quarter length from the winner at the wire and now we shorten up in distance. He could turn the tables on the two that caught him last time out and must be respected on the lead.

Awesome Force is the favorite here despite the horrible finish in the Derby. He ran a pair of really nice speed figures a few races back but in two starts since he has failed to recapture that form. I think he is a long shot here based on recent performance.

All The Riches moves over to take on the boys. Speed figure wise this filly fits very well with the boys. She just missed in the Bluegrass Oaks last time out coming from well off the pace. The distance will be no problem but she will have to prove tough enough to run with the boys.

Race: 3224.0814 Black Middle Flower Stk – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

Can you believe that only thirteen will enter the gates? There was space for one more and the field did not fill up. The Bluegrass Oaks winner Love Never Die is back but not as the favorite. She showed great improvement last time out upsetting the field in Kentucky. She stalked and pounced earning a half length win over some very good fillies. She looks to have a good shot at the filly triple with a great stamina pedigree. She should be well positioned in this one with an inside post and should have every chance to prove her self yet again.

Spooky Wildcat and Offlee High are co favorites here. Spooky Wildcat failed to fire in the Bluegrass Oaks. She finished fourteenth and somehow is a co favorite. She got shuffled back a bit in the Oaks and with the smaller field she should get a much better trip. The inside post in the twenty horse field probably hurt. She will be stalking probably from mid pack and if she can rebound she has a shot.

Offlee High is probably one of the better three year old filly sprinters however she has not hit the board in a route race. Her two route races were a while back as a two year old and her speed figures then were in line with her sprint speed figures at the time. That makes it tough to judge if she can get the distance. I think she is capable and if you count her out because she has been in sprints mostly you might be making a big mistake.

Fortheloveofgodben is a filly that skipped the Oaks. She four in a row this spring and seven of eleven for her career. She is just getting better each time out and has a little extra rest than most of her rivals here. She has run on the lead, from well off the pace or stalking the pace so I have no idea where she will be coming from this week. She has won easy in all four of her recent races and I think that is a great indication that she is primed to win this week.