The Yors Numras Sprint
The Punters Guide to The Yors Numras Sprint
This week’s punting guide is focused on the 15th race at
The first thing we can glean from the previous 7 runnings of the Yors Numras is that a horse is going to have to run around 1:09 flat for the 6 panels to take this race out. The race record stands at 1:08 4/5ths with the slowest running only 2/5ths outside that at 1:09 1/5th. 6 winners of the race started under $10 with the shortest winner, Looking For More, winning last years running at $3.10. The one double digit winner was Val’Demor, who was victorious in 2005 with a career best performance and paid $10.50 for the win. One thing we don’t have to worry about on Saturday is track bias.
So we are looking for a horse that can run 1:09 for 6 furlongs (which equates to an SP of around 108/109) and is pretty well in the market. Let’s have a look at our contenders to see if we can find our horse or if the 2007 running of the Yors Numras sprint is going to be the exception to the rule.
DIXIE GLOW is our short priced morning line favourite at 3/1 from the outside gate 13. Kaif099 has this guy in career best form and he looks to be one of those rare horses that gets better as they get older. He has only had the 2 runs thus far this year for a 4th and a 3rd in Gr I company. He ran out of his skin last time out in the Ethereal sprint and finished ahead of the champion Casterly Rock, recording an SP of 107 in the process. If the Rock was running on Saturday he would be close to even money so his form line is first class. R Heenan will be riding on Saturday and while he isn’t the top jock in
On the second line of betting is leo3’s horse BARB’S LEISURE who should start on Saturday at 7/1. After starting the year a little slowly he has started to hit his straps in his last 2 races, culminating in a good win last time out in an overnight stakes race. He covered the 6 furlongs in 1:09 1/5th so he has the speed to be a factor in Saturday’s race. He has the tendency to mix his form a little but at his best he can match motors with the top sprinters in the game, as was evidenced by his 2nd placing in last years Gr I Prince’s Knights Stakes. He doesn’t have much form on wet tracks and his only attempt resulted in a disappointing 6th in a stakes race. Probably the biggest asset leo3 has on his side is the services of
At 8/1 we have EUGENE’S AXE who will start from barrier 1. He has spent most of 2007 on the grass, but did have one run on the dirt in the wet for a good 3rd in an allowance. The big question mark is whether he can run the time needed to win this race, he is yet to break 100 on the dirt. Since switching to the grass late last year he has steadily improved and moulded into a competitive sprinter. The question is has the improvement come about because of the change in surface or is it due to maturity and the fact he is a 4yo now. Like most horses that can handle both surfaces he enjoys the wet and has the good record of 4 races, 2 wins and a placing in the slop. This might be enough to get him into the finish on Saturday but to take the winners cheque he is going to have to hope that a couple of others falter in the wet. Things look a lot tougher when you take into consideration meganc’s jockey selection of K Ebner who hasn’t ridden a winner all year and is badly out of form.
Also at 8/1 is the cleverly named MYMOMWASADUDE(IRE), trained by lygerbomb. Its hard to get enthused about the chances of a horse in Gr III that has won 2 races from 19 starts and 1 of them was on the grass but this guy does have some speed on his day. He has spent most of the last 12 months racing at a mile or further and that seems to be his best distance but with only 4 runs at less than a mile it is hard to be sure. The 111 he fired off late last year to win his lone stakes race would easily put him in the finish here but he hasn’t looked like getting anywhere near that level since. He looks to get through the wet ok with his only try comparable to the times he was running at the time. I Selby will be riding this Saturday and he is a competent jockey that is riding his share of winners.
The last horse under double figures is UNAVAILABLE trained by one of the sim’s biggest operators in lenny6. He has been in good form in ’07. After a try on the grass it was back to sprinting on the dirt and he quickly rattled off 3 wins in a row, including an overnight stakes. He came back to earth last time out, failing in a stakes race but it is probably best to overlook that effort. In what is a good sign for this weekend his best race last year was recorded on a wet track in
At 10/1 we have PENULTIMATE, bred to one of the most famous “nicks” in the game and trained by gradeone. 2007 has probably seen him fire off a couple of his best performances but even these seem to be a notch below the top couple. He is yet to place at stakes level and it is hard to see him being able to turn it around in a Gr III at his 28th start as a 5yo. One thing to his advantage is his wet track ability which has seen him win 2 of 3 starts on rain affected tracks, although they were a maiden and an allowance non winner of 2 in a year. D Conrad will be in the irons and he is having a great year riding at nearly 17% winners. He also knows how to rate a horse in this race as he finished 3rd on Desert Regent last year.
From the 11 hole we have TROUBLED TEEN for acote2 at 11/1. He is a 6yo veteran of 41 races with earnings of just over $120 000. This guy could have been picked up 3 races back in a claimer for the $30 000 and it was in that race on a wet track that he fired his biggest number to date, an SP of 106 over 7.5fl. He is a speed horse that will try and lead this weekend and with a wet track he may be able to hold on for a slice of the prizemoney. I doubt he has the class to win at this level and he is yet to even run in a stakes race so he may compound badly under the extra pressure. K McCafferty is the jockey charged with holding him together down the stretch and he is having a career best year, riding 14 winners which has him sitting 4th on the ladder.
Also at 11/1 is GOLD MEDAL EFFORT(IRE) who will start outside Trouble Teen in barrier 12. Dundey5 dipped his horse into the graded waters last year and he found the level a little deep for his liking. However he looks a stronger horse now and his trainer has decided to step him back up. Part of that decision is the wet track no doubt as Gold Medal Effort broke his maiden first up on a wet track in very good time as an early 3yo. He looked a bit flat late last year but with 2 wins this year, 1 at stakes level against a full field, he looks like he may be starting to come through with some of that early potential he first showed. One worrying statistic is that of the 18 races he has contested he has won 8 but never finished 2nd or 3rd so it looks like he either travels well or bombs out. Dundey5 has stood by P Ashmore as the jockey despite his terrible record for the year and he will be hoping to relive memories of the past when he rode Summer Bob into 2nd place in 2002 at 18/1.
Zewango4 who seems to have a nice sprinter run around each week in graded company has GREAT KING RAT, perhaps named after the Aussie war film of WWII, running this week at 12/1. On his day this guy can run the time that is needed to take this type of race out, whether that is going to happen this week is the great unknown. He has been running around in the allowance circuits this year after spending most of last year competing in overnight stakes events. He is a tough seasoned horse that has won at stakes level and also in the wet as a 3yo, although it was over 8 furlongs which probably makes the effort even more notable as that is not his preferred distance. T King will be the jockey this weekend and although this race has not been kind to him in the past he is having a great year and is pushing Townsend hard for the number 2 ranking at
At 15/1 we have SCOOBISLEW for daisymasha and QUARTZITE for miguel91. Scoobislew has been mixing his racing between the grass and the dirt in claimers, allowances and low level stakes races. He is just short of the $100 000 mark and really doesn’t look to have the speed necessary to trouble the top 4 or 5 here. He can get through the wet ok but the class factor is probably going to hold him back. Quartzite is a more accomplished horse with earnings of over $200 000. He was a fairly smart 3yo but now he is 6 years old he seems to have lost a step or two. Perhaps some of his joints are giving him trouble because he seems to save his best for when the sting is out of the track and if he can repeat his run of 3 back when he went down narrowly in a sprint, running an SP of 105, he may be able to feature for the minor money here. C Muncie will ride Scoobislew and although he has had a slow start to 2007 he did finish 2nd last year on Indiscretion paying $10. Miguel91 has stayed loyal to E Bunch who has had a horror year to date with just the one winner.
Rounding out the field is ZITI MARINARA BG for missouri3 at 16/1 and DELTA BREEZE for sansanfarm at 17/1. Both these horses, whilst capable of earning some prizemoney, would really surprise if they were to take this out. Ziti Marinara BG will be making his stakes debut in his 27th race start at the age of 4 and Delta Breeze is a 6yo who has not tried stakes company since his 2yo days. Delta Breeze would seem the more likely of the two to feature as he can crack the SP 100 barrier and he is finding some form after a couple of very quiet years on the track but I am not convinced that either are totally comfortable in running in the wet. Big Mo Johnson will ride Delta Breeze and he has the second best record in this race behind 2 time winner
The 2007 running of the Yors Numras looks like a very open affair but I can not possibly go past the favourite. He handles the wet, can run great time and has the class edge. Against that his jockey is not the greatest and he is going to have to deal with the outside gate but as he is likely to drop out the back early it probably shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance. If there is going to be an upset, and if the race histories are anything to go by it won’t be by a big outsider, I think Unavailable is best suited. He has won in the wet and his times this year look like they are heading in the right direction. I would definitely have Gold Medal Effort and Delta Breeze in my multiples, don’t be surprised if they place at good odds. Although the race is usually won by favourites it has a strong history of horses placing at good odds.
Good luck to all connections and I hope you enjoy the day.