Second Tier Tries the Timber

It’s a wonderful time for three-year-old racing.  While the Middle Jewel and Middle Flower Stakes have attracted the top established runners, other graded races are still available for those still trying to make their mark.

As has been the case in all six prior runnings, Pennsylvania’s Grade III Timber Stakes has attracted less than a full field and only a few runners with graded experience. 

Besides attracted fillies who lack experience at this level, the race has attracted a dearth of early speed.  That may put a premium on jockey ability and race settings.

While the last four winners have managed 19 subsequent stakes wins, only 2003 winner Find the Time was able ever to win another graded race.

Here is a look at the field:

1. NAILED TOTHE CROSS(MD)  (NOT FOR LOVE x SAINT BALLADO x CLEVER TRICK)  bred and trained by profitthis (9.6%), Rank 659, Odds: 18-1

Lightly raced filly out of the large Coomer2 Stables was a mild upset winner in a Dubai allowance last time.  Major negatives are the very large class jump and that her speed figures trail the rest badly (she’s almost the only one here who has yet to crack 90).  Every winner of the Timber has exited a stakes race.  This is her stakes debut.  She gets no breaks for her running style either.  She wants to come from behind against what looks to be a leisurely early pace.  On the other hand, young fillies in their seventh start running this time of year are eligible to improve rapidly, and she’s been getting faster every start.  That’s important.  She gets a decent jockey, too.

2. URBAN GOLD MINE(KY)  (SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY)  bred and trained by ozioziozi  (13%), Rank 36, Odds: 5-2

Her 102 figure in the Grade III We Get Signal dominates this field.  She had a streak of seven dirt routes with seven firsts or seconds disrupted last time in the Grade I lool Oaks.  As usual the lool attracted one of the toughest fields in all of three-year-old racing, so finishing in the front half of that field within five lengths of the winner, while disappointing to this veteran stable, still makes her a classy standout and deserving favorite.  Veteran jockey is off to a disappointing 2007; perhaps this ride will help turn the season around.

3. CROSSBRED IN A TIE(MD)  (GATORS N BEARS x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) x DYNAFORMER)  bred and trained by nameless3 (5%), Rank 178, Odds: 10-1

She ran a nice second against a small but good field in a listed stakes last time and the barn was encouraged enough for this jump in class for the modestly bred filly.  From a class standpoint, she appears over her head – both of her lifetime wins came in owner-restricted races, and her speed figures are very light.  There is a recent thread in the forum about how we need more modestly bred horses.  Kudos to this stable for specializing in interesting breeding.  A win today would be quite surprising though.

4. VAILEN(FL)  (SARAVA x AVENUE OF FLAGS x EL PRADO(IRE)) bred and trained by antares (3%), Rank 53, Odds: 5-1

I’m not an enthusiastic person, but I admire enthusiasm in others.  Firefox Stables already has 25 stables, though they average a mere 133 starts.  This filly has been very nice for the stable.  She only has two wins in her 14 starts, but she’s been a steady check earner.  She’s been in the money eight times in her 11 routes on fast dirt and owns a stakes win against a fair listed field.  Her last start was not encouraging, as she could not keep up in a small field, so the class rise comes as a surprise.  Somehow she managed to attract the dominant Pennsylvania jockey, off to his typical start.  For that reason alone you can’t ignore her.

5. BALANCE(KY)  (THUNDER GULCH x KRIS S. x FORLI) bred and trained by chloedawg (12%), Rank 105, Odds: 8-1

It’s been a very nice three-year-old season for this one.  She’s picked up three of her four wins and beat a modest field to pick up a stakes win.  She looked to be coming into her own and the barn reasonably tried her in graded company.  This is what handicapping is about.  That Grade II Mellow Breeze did not go well. What to do.  It could mean she was overraced at two and has begun a descent in her form.  It could be she ran into a field much tougher than this (she did).  It could be she is not graded material. Many horses (read: all of mine) run substantially poorer if placed in a stakes level they are not programmed to like (again: all of mine).  Or it could be she didn’t like the wet surface.  I’m inclined to think it was the tough company and the wet track.  She has a great chance to continue the improvement she was showing before that last race.

6. YANKEE ROOTS(KY) (VINDICATION x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x SARATOGA SIX) bred by risingsun,  trained by greenappl8 (15%), Rank 26, Odds: 5-1

Her finish in front of Sisson’s Chant in the Grade II Sweet Nanette, when that one looked to be at the top of her game, makes this one appear to have a decided class advantage here.  She did finish behind Urban Gold Mine last time in the lool Oaks, and it’s tough to ignore how her speed figures have been declining.  Normally that’s a sign to toss the chances of a three-year-old in the spring.  The running style of this top rated filly may be her redeeming factor.  She has a chance to grab an early lead, and the only time she did that before, she ran off with a convincing win.  Why the stable settled on this weak jockey is a mystery.

7. THEORY OF LOVE(KY)  (FORESTRY x CAPOTE x AFFIRMED) bred and trained by cub (12%), Rank 402, Odds: 5-1

CVBear manages 650 horses.  I’m not sure you heard me. CVBear manages 650 horses.  This filly earned a check against much tougher in the Grade III Jockey Guild last time and nearly hit triple digits the time before that in an allowance win.  She only has six starts and is likely to show improvement here.  It would not take much improvement for her to get her picture taken today.  Major chance.

8. WILD RANT(KY)  (FOREST WILDCAT x PULPIT x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE)) bred and trained by rcdlogan  (14%), Rank 93, Odds: 9-2

Closer could not catch the early speed in her last start against a weak field.  Earns second choice in the morning line based on her steady performance and a recent stakes win and stakes second.  Her prep races look comparable to past Timber winners.  On the other hand, it’s hard to find an excuse for her last race.  The climb in class looks questionable.  Excellent jockey is happy to pick up this mount.  Mixed signals is what makes racing worthwhile.

9. REEF SHARK(AUS)  (SPINNING WORLD x MACHIAVELLIAN x MILL REEF)  bred and trained by tarahewett (7%), Rank 496, Odds: 9-1

You have to like a filly that has finished first or second five times in seven starts.  Why such long odds?  It’s hard to find an excuse for finishing in the back half of a weak listed field last time, but I really want to.  Cover up that top line in the past performances and you have a rapidly improving filly with a record that looks a lot like past Timber winners.  Stare at that top line and you see a filly that looks outclassed and may be on the decline.  Your call.

No one seemed to care about my tries at Top Threes, so I’ll try ending this way:

Summary:  A Nailed to the Crossbred in a Tie would be a fun exacta to nail, and anything I say about a Theory of Love would come across as an ill-informed Wild Rant, and keep in mind the last race I predicted correctly was during the Truman administration, but I predict (read give the kiss of death to) Balance/Urban Gold Mine/Theory of Love.