Seven colts hope to be Spinning A Tale of stakes glory

Three year old sprinters stretch to nearly classic distance this week, as Virginia hosts the Spinning A Tale Challenge. Once again, the weather has been beautiful this week in Virginia, and we will have a firm track for this seven and a half furlong race. Entries are open to all three year olds, and the race carries a $50000 purse. This is the first ever running of this stakes, honoring a well raced son of Spinning World. The race has drawn a field of eight entries, and seems to be quite well matched according to the morning line. There could be some money to be made here, with the favorite going off at a relatively speaking long 3/1 odds. Six of the remaining entries weigh in between 9/2 and 8/1, and we have a 12/1 longshot rounding out the field. Plenty of room for a surprise or two here.

PP 1) O.C. Matt(KY) Sired by Afleet Alex, Trained by theoc. O.C. Matt(KY) makes his fourteenth career start here. He’s never finished worse than fifth in his first thirteen. He’s no stranger to stakes competition, and he has notched two previous stakes wins, both coming late in his two year old season. Over his last ten starts, he has run to a 3-1-3-2-1 record, with a best speed of 95.7, earned in his first stakes win late last year. His last start was an open allowance on a tough Florida track, where he finished a closing third in a field of six. This will be his first career turf start. His sire Afleet Alex hasn’t shown a major turf upside, especially in his current crop, but Giant’s Causeway and Seattle Slew on his dam side could help a bit. The distance doesn’t favor him here, either. The six furlong range has been his bread and butter run, and in four starts beyond six and a half furlongs, his best finish has been third place. His speeds have been decent though, and that’s a plus. He generally runs as a stalker, though he’s not afraid of an early lead if it’s offered. Though he comes in as the favorite, with his lack of turf experience and going beyond his preferred distance, I can’t recommend him here.

PP 2) Frenzy(KY) Sired by Forestry, Trained by super9. Frenzy(KY) makes a twelfth career run here. He has plenty of stakes experience, and has one stakes win to his credit, earned in his last start. His last ten starts have seen him run up a 4-2-0-0-1 record, with a best speed of 102.6 which he earned in his last start. That race was a seven furlong stakes race on a very tough Delaware track, where he bested a field of six by two lengths in a career best effort. He spent his entire two year old season on dirt, with minimal success. With a switch to turf to start his three year old season, he really seemed to blossom, and he hasn’t finished worse than second since the switch. He is at his distance of choice here as well, and he has five top two finishes in seven starts including both surfaces. His best success has been running from the head of mid pack. His close won’t support himself getting too deep out at the start, but he is dangerous if he stays within a couple lengths. His last speed was the best in this field by a decent margin, but it was also fourteen points higher than his previous best. His ability to duplicate that speed is a big question mark for him here, and if he backslides he could have a rough one here.

PP 3) Charizard(KY) Sired by More Than Ready, Trained by superimpos. Charizard(KY) has thirteen career starts behind him. He has three previous stakes starts, and he has won all three of them. In his last ten starts he has put together a 5-3-2-0-1 record, with a best speed of 94.2, posted in his last start. He comes off a stakes at this distance on a tough Florida track, where he came out ahead of a field of five by a length and three quarters as they crossed the wire. He discovered turf in his sixth start, and he hasn’t finished worse than third in his next eight on turf, with four wins and three seconds. He seems to perform equally well in the six or seven furlong ranges, but all of his best speeds have fallen in the distance range he is in here. He likes to run from midpack, with his sweet spot seeming to be about 2-3 lengths out at the half. His close has been quite consistent when he doesn’t allow himself to get involved in an early duel. He has a lot of leader/stalker types out in front of him in this one, and if he runs his race, he could be a real threat down the stretch.

PP 4) Sakie(ENG) Sired by Sakhee, Trained by nwoprizes. Sakie(ENG) will be making his thirteenth career start in this race. His last outing was his first in stakes competition, and he acquitted himself well, with his first stakes win. He has run his way through his last ten to a record of 4-2-1-0-0 record, with a best speed of 95.5 coming in his last start. In a seven furlong stakes on the tough Vermont track, he came out on top of a field of seven by a length, behind a beautiful closing effort. Turf has proven to be his surface of choice, and he seems to run equally well in the six or seven furlong range. Recently he has seemed to be craving a bit more distance, and his last two in this range have been two of his career best. He is a midpack to deep closer, and his close has been quite consistent outside a couple of mishaps at shorter distances. With the fast starters and the stalkers in front of him, this race is ripe for a closer to pick them off down the line. I think he is one of the best bets here.

PP 5) Vodka N’ Skittles(NY) Sired by Jade Hunter, Trained by bigtime. Vodka N’ Skittles(NY) takes the gate for his thirteenth start here in this race. He has no shortage of stakes experience, and he has one previous stakes win to show, in the middle of last year. His last ten races have netted him a record of 2-3-0-0-2, running a best speed of 94.2, earned two starts back. His last race was an A2n effort at seven furlongs, right here in Virginia, where he mastered a short field by nearly two lengths. He’s never been off the turf in his career. He has run from six to nine and a half, and seems most comfortable in a slightly shorter race. He has had decent success in this range though, with two wins and a place in four starts. He’s a midpack closer, but he has alternated between picture perfect closes and races where he has appeared to make no effort at all. He is coming off two very nice runs, and could be in the mix if he duplicates that effort. Stakes hasn’t been good for him this year, though, and he will need a career effort.

PP 6) High At Jumbo’s(FR) Sired by High Yield, Trained by 4play. High At Jumbo’s(FR) is making the tenth start of his young career here. This will be his fourth try at stakes competition, and he is still seeking his first win at this level. His first nine starts have seen him run to a 3-3-2-0-0 record, posting a best speed of 91.3 earned in his start before last. His last start was a stakes race in South Carolina at nine furlongs, where he finished second in a field of four, with his close leveling off down the stretch. Other than one rather disastrous start on dirt, he has never finished out of the top three in any start. His best success has been in the mile range, but he showed good speed at his one start at this distance. He runs as a deep closer, but more often than not he has not been able to bring it all the way home. The shorter race won’t help in that regard. He will also need a pretty good jump in speed to catch the group he faces here.

PP 7) Guerdon(KY) Sired by Grand Reward, Trained by hollyyih. Guerdon(KY) makes the fourteenth run of his career here. This will be his first stakes start since midway through his two year old season last year, and he is still seeking his first stakes victory. His last ten runs have led to a record of 2-2-1-1-0, with a best speed of 90.8 which he ran in his last race. That race was an A3x outing at six and a half furlongs here in Virginia, where he faded late off a powerful start to finish fourth in a full field. He has taken a couple spins on dirt, but has been much better on turf. He won in his only try at seven furlongs, but generally seems to prefer a shorter race. This race appears to be at the outside edge of his range. He is a fast starter, and works at his best with a big cushion. With the speed of this field, he is going to have a hard time putting any distance on this group. Look for him to come out fast and fade at the half as the speed takes its toll.

PP 8) Redoute’s Son(AUS) Sired by Redoute’s Choice(AUS), Trained by tip2no. Redoute’s Son(AUS) is the most lightly raced colt in this field, making only his eighth career start here. He has three stakes wins in those seven starts. Overall in the course of his first seven, he has come 5-0-2-0-0, with a best speed of 94.2, earned last time out. That run was a six and a half furlong stakes in Arkansas, where he crushed a short field by two and a quarter, leading wire to wire. All seven career starts have been on turf, and he seems to run equally well in any kind of sprint his trainer sets him too. He breaks at a pace that would normally put him at the head of the mid pack, but only once in his seven starts has he not found himself with a piece of the early lead. He’s faces a lot more early speed than he is used to seeing here, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to that, and if he can display any type of close in the second half. Overall, this colt has been steadily improving, and could possibly make a good choice for your exotic boxes.