I’ve Been To Kentucky For A Race With No Name
After spending some time writing in the BTB the last couple of years, I look for challenges when I decide to pick up a race. Fourteen-horse fields do not necessarily entice me, but if there’s an angle to pick at, to give me inspiration, I’ll give it a go. Whatever anybody thinks of the writing, in any event I do like to be challenged.
Nothing is more challenging, though, than to write up a stakes with no name. All there is listed in the entries is a picture of a horseshoe, casting a shadow on the floor, cast in a blueish light. I wracked my brain trying to figure out what I can call it, since a picture cannot do a Grade I, $500,000 turf race covering twelve furlongs over the firm Bluegrass Derby day turf, justice. Then entries closed, and after looking at the field, it came to me.
It’s the Horseshoe Bay Woodford Reserve Memorial. Or, maybe just the Horseshoe Bay Invitational. No matter what, Horseshoe Bay, future first-ballot Hall Of Fame member and the division leader for older routing turf horses, is the heavy favorite to make this his twenty-first victory in his thirty-fifth start. Indeed, there’s a milestone up ahead for him in Kentucky Saturday.
See, if he can get victory #21 here, Horseshoe Bay will pass over the $10 million mark in career earnings. That should be the feather in the cap of a fine career. No one knows any future plans for the talented five-year-old horse except for his connections, but should he make it to that landmark earnings goal, one might be inclined to wonder, barring a run at the record $13.5 million in earnings of Joe Cayenne, what would be next for him? Regardless, none of the other thirteen horses plan on making this race easy for the favorite. In particular, the field features the fifth-ranked Confederacy; Mine D’Inverne, the eighteenth-ranked horse working on a three-race winning streak that included his first Grade I win last out; and late-blooming threat Artificial Crisis. It’s not the easiest out in the world, but the oddsmakers are smitten enough with him to make Horseshoe Bay a very strong 2-1 favorite here.
Here’s the field for…well, the Horseshoe Bay Turf Classic, or, The Race Which Dare Not Speak Its Name:
Acid [Woodman x Ela-Mana-Mou(IRE), trained by tbgifted2] has an inside post for this marathon. Since switching to the grass full-time just before Christmas, his fortunes have improved; he already was a Grade II winner on dirt going these long routes in the mud, but he’s picked up the pace, winning three grass stakes in his last five outings. Speaking of pace, there’s some potential speed, but not a whole lot of it, so the closing kick is going to need some help on the front end, but one can still expect a deep closing threat on the rail late here. His speed figures are pretty good among these, but the questions here are more for class and distance. He made up decent amounts of ground in his last two graded tries, but could only manage a fourth last out in the San Francisco Capitan last time and a fifth in the Pan Americana three back, and his best finishes in graded races were those two third-place runs in the mud around Christmas and New Years 2005-2006. Furthermore, he’s a perfect 3-for-3 on grass going thirteen furlongs, but 0-for-3 on grass at twelve furlongs, today’s distance; it’s likely this one would want even more ground for his best run; while you can’t underestimate this trainer’s abilities with long-distance runners, this one might need a little more oomph to contend in this particular Grade I.
Title Duke [Blue Moonofalaska x Green Desert, trained by johnno1] is an eight-year-old veteran looking for the big score. You might remember he was a Grade III winner for the first time at age 6, in the Buck Dharma at Louisiana, but even though he would be graded-placed in six events since then, including the 2005 United Countries and Coalminers Cup and last year’s Jennifer Connley Turf Cup, the Buck Dharma remains his only graded win to date. He’s been showing his age in recent times, too. While he ran a career-high 112 when second in the Connley last spring, though he’s won two straight coming into Kentucky, his speed figures have only inched back into the low-to-mid 90s. His preferred style of sitting mid-pack in these marathons is pretty well-spotted here, the distance historically is not a bad match for this horse, and he did win in a listed race last out going a mile-and-five-eighths versus a small field last time, but he appears much better suited to shorter races at this stage, with a good effort in last September’s Violin Mile bearing this out. He’s got back class for this one, and comes into this with good form, but a twelve-furlong Grade I on paper doesn’t look like a great fit, particularly with a solid field such as this to compete with. Watch out, though, when he opts again for his optimal middle-distance route stakes events later in the year, as a revival in fortune might appear more likely.
Scooby Wells(IRE) [Moon Ballad(IRE)-Hawks Well, by Sadler’s Wells, trained by robscoobi2] is in top form coming into this race, career-wise. After a string of twelve straight races going thirteen panels and beyond, which netted him only one open-company stakes win, plus a couple of allowances and other events, he cut back to eleven panels for the first time in thirteen months last out, and responded with a 100 speed figure in an allowance win. He’s won two allowances in a row, and now returns to a mile-and-a-half graded race here. Three of his top-4 speed figure numbers have come in his last three outings, and even though he steps into the deep end of the pool here, it’s still a matter of this horse being in career-pinnacle form, and he returns to what might be a good distance for him after running much further without a whole lot of success going distances of ground much longer than this. He only has one stakes win to date, and his only graded race found him finishing fifteenth in last year’s Equinics in Italy, but his two recent speed figures actually sit quite well with this particular field, and his late kick should serve him very well in this spot. It’s a matter of him keeping this form going strong, and acquitting himself nicely routing in a Grade I, and perhaps continuing his evolution into a solid turf specialist; he’s a dark horse in here for a good-sized chunk of the purse, if he can keep it up.
Horseshoe Bay [Red Ransom x Woodman, trained by texasace]. What can be said that hasn’t been by other, less long-winded individuals with better typing skills? His form is as good as any horse around, with the last time he finished without earning a dime being an eighth in the Japan Classic at Thanksgiving time in 2005. Six Grade I wins in a row—a Sim record—at 3, back-to-back Breeders Bowl Turf wins, a resumé about thirty times longer than mine…there’s little downside to this horse. He may very well be the best twelve-furlong horse in the Sim, ever, and I realize there are other camps who might take issue with that, but he’s got the goods to back him up: 15-for-22 at a mile-and-a-half, only two speed figures under 100 at the distance, all 15 of these wins in Grade I action, 9 of the wins coming in a time of 2:30.00 or faster. But on to recent form, which at least allows me to not be as flattering. He’s slightly off his best form at present, but he usually comes out of the Breeders Bowl with his form slightly askew—his last five starts since the BB Turf yielded an average speed figure of 105.4, compared with 105 in the five starts after the ’05 BB Turf win, and since the Turf win last fall he’s had a win with four on-the-board finishes compared to two wins and three off-the-board finishes since the ’05 Turf. Even with a nice win in the Dubai Grade I three back, he just seems to have taken a little while to get revved up again, relatively speaking. Still, he’s the one to beat, with his classic rear charge in the final furlongs usually bringing him home in style. He has only ran once over this track, a win last fall in the BB Turf by four lengths, but once should be enough. Besides which, he’s a perfect 4-for-4 with F Gossett on board, so with all the segments in place, 2-1 seems awfully value-laden. The pace shouldn’t be too hot, and he’s now due to set his season into his usual overdrive; watch out.
Mine D’Inverne [Mineshaft-Queen Of Dubai, by Dubai Millennium, trained by umea] has nine wins in his first seventeen starts, and that’s leading to this showdown with the division leader. The numbers don’t yet speak to this horse’s potential, but the recent upward trend in each race makes him a serious threat here. It started with a last-to-first move three back in South Africa, in which he was sixteen lengths back, but made a humongous closing move to pull away by five. Then at New South Wales, it was a similar monster kick late: down by more than fourteen lengths became a five and a quarter-length victory going two miles. Last time, he shortened up a quarter-mile in his graded debut, and while his late run was just from about fifteen lengths out to a win in the stretch by a length, the resulting speed figure was a sharp 101. That may seem a bit lighter than some of the veterans’ speed figures, but he sure seems to have turned a corner in his development, and seems to be peaking at the most opportune moment, in just his seventeenth start (the second-fewest number of starts in the field). The late kick seems to be somewhat potent, but the downside is that there’s a couple of others here whose late moves are even stronger, and one of those happens to be number one here. He should benefit from cutting back another quarter-mile here, but that means less ground to gobble up late; regardless, this is a very nice horse, lightly raced, and still not quite at his most optimum peak form, and should not be ignored in considering your exotics wagering.
Tow The Dark [War Emblem-Over Tow, by Pine Bluff, trained by jjfalcon] has had a very nice, solid career without quite ascending to that next level of performance. He’s another closer, but he’s not quite that dramatic closer that some others are; instead, he sits back in the pack before gradually revving into gear. He’s never aimed this high before, a half-million in a Grade I affair. But he does have some experience in graded competition, with a second last winter in the Grade II Ferdichenko Cup last winter, and that netted him a career-best speed figure of 101. Unfortunately, in the eighteen outings since that second, he’s won just three allowance races, and had only been as close as second (his last start) in nine stakes races since. The speed figures are only modest here, and not quite at the level needed to succeed in a Grade I race. The distance should appeal, and he’s bred well for the distance, but these figures need to jump at least 10 points to be seen as a viable threat.
Strong Science [Empire Maker-Caniama(IRE), by Galileo(IRE), trained by futurestar] joins in the fun of coming from off the pace to make a dash towards the wire. He’s a pretty consistent fellow, but he’s come into some hard luck when stepping up to graded-level foes, with a best finish of fifth in last fall’s Grade III Flying Carpet. He’s consistent, though, in the sense that all ten of his wins have come at either eleven or thirteen furlongs (seven at eleven furlongs, three at thirteen), including his three stakes wins. His consistency extends to his speed figures, which show a long line of numbers in the 90s, with the added pleasure of a 101 in a stakes win two back in Jamaica. It must be said that he likes what he does, and he did at least score a recent 100+ number, but that may be owed a little more to a race on firm grass following two over soft going. Additionally, at a mile and a half, he’s 0-for-4, in one of those quirks of the Sim no one can quite get. He’ll need a leap of faith that gets him back into the mid-100s for top contention, but there’s only been three times in twenty-six outings where he failed to pick up a check, so a small reward is quite possible.
Artificial Crisis [Machiavellian x Silver Hawk, trained by nowitsdark] is the most lightly-raced of the bunch, through just twelve starts. But in only twelve starts, man, does he look dangerous on the surface. This late-starting five-year-old has only competed on grass, but relishes it, as shown in his two graded wins to date. He broke his maiden by almost seven lengths on New Year’s Eve 2005, won his first stakes in start #6 with a 104, won the Grade III Brown Fields last fall with a 107, and captured a head-bob win in the Grade III Royal Calm on St. Patrick’s Day last out. That 109 is the best figure here, and was achieved over a wet turf course that he’s shown he’s not that fond of but still is capable of handling (two wins in five wet-grass races). All that, and he’s a top-100 horse…which is a problem. See, the top-100 ranking is in the turf classic division, and not the turf marathon division. And while the first stakes win did come at ten furlongs, he’s not quite shown as much ability running longer routes. Both tries at marathon distances have their excuses: he ran into Confederacy and a wet course in last summer’s Shimko Cup while third, and the field in the Dawn To Dusk Cup just prior to that wasn’t just a rich one (including Band Of Budas), but featured an insanely loose-on-the-lead Tenpin Gold opening up ten lengths on the field only to be nabbed near the wire by Extortionist, who may have been the only one that day with enough oomph to get there late. All of that said (and in spite of the 100 earned in the Dawn To Dusk Cup), his speed figures tend to sparkle between eight-and-a-half furlongs and a mile and a quarter. He’s got skills on grass, and the future looks strong, but the distance is a major obstacle for the second wagering choice, at 6-1.
An Urban Legend [Machiavellian-Urban Blow, by Kingmambo, trained by martialis] can’t myth. But anyway. Actually, he’s another deep threat closer in a field loaded with plenty of them, and while it seems, akin to Artificial Crisis, his best speed figures come usually at slightly shorter distances, he’s still pretty able at these longer events as shown in the record. He’s won three of his last five in stakes company (by eleven-and-a-half lengths combined), with the highest speed figure of 100 coming three back at eleven furlongs. But with only a pair of 100+ numbers in the past, and with possibly a mid-100 number likely required to run strong with these, he’ll need to raise his game, and kick furiously. It’s possible, as he’s got a second in a Grade III in his past, but the smallish fields he’s faced lately, along with recent speed figures that aren’t quite as strong as they need to be in a Grade I, raise some doubts about the ability to be anything but Pop-Rocks and soda against strong foes here.
Dela Groom T [Gone West x Blushing Groom(FR), trained by highc] has bloomed in 2007 through trying grass for the very first time. He could only manage a maiden win in twenty-two starts on dirt through the end of last year, but when she debuted on grass in January, it all of a sudden appeared to be like a new universe had just been created for him. One win in twenty-two races became three wins in a row, and even if the win count has fallen off in the last four efforts, the results of the simple surface switch cannot be denied. This horse has shown the ability to hold his own in a Grade I already on the new surface, rocketing to the lead late n the Godzilla Vs. The World Turf Classic last out, and was just unable to maintain it past the eighth pole, yet still managed a very sharp 100 figure in the mile-and-a-quarter race. But in this new phase of his career, figuring it all out completely is still a work in progress. He’s not been this far before on turf, and could possibly be a pace factor, seeing that there’s not a lot of early speed here and his best results tend to come when he’s just off the early lead. Judging from the way the speed figures at the middle distances tend to stand out, though, and considering the pedigree is suggesting there might be some possible limitations, the only guarantee might be that he’ll be as close to the front as he can bear for as long as he can stand it. Watch him turning back out of this, though.
Confederacy [High Chaparral-Cop Unit, by Caerleon, trained by dawgpound] is Horseshoe Bay’s main foe here, for the simple reason of rankings, as this one is fifth-ranked in the division and has the background to back it up. Early in his career, he was so very on. He had a streak of grass races at one point at 3 where he won seven in a row whenever he ran on the turf (a streak separated into segments by three fair dirt races in the middle of it), and did so by a combined total of twenty-seven-and-a-quarter lengths. He caught another hot streak last year, when he captured the Shimko Classic and the Long Walk, both Grade I races, back-to-back, and topped the year with a win in the DelPenn Champions Day Allied Assault, in front-running fashion. Front-running is what he likes, to set sail on the lead and play hide-and-seek while waiting to see who’ll come after him. In those aforementioned races, many would chase, but few would catch. But in 2007, Confederacy seems to be retreating somewhat from his ’06 form. His season debut in the Aslan was curious in that despite sitting just off the lead throughout, he never seemed to want to take over the lead in spite of there being a lead change in the race. In the John Scott, he did manage the lead for seven-and-a-half furlongs before tiring, and in Dubai last out, he didn’t engage with the field at all, ending up thirteenth. A six-week break followed. Coincidental? Anyway, he’s back, and the race has not a lot of early speed in it to set things up, so a fresh Confederacy might be a dangerous one, if he’s back on track after freshening. If he’s loose, it could be like Sherman’s march on Georgia; if he’s caught, it could be more like Appomattox. His back class and career figures are strong against these, though, and his freshness will determine his fate here.
Bane [High Chaparral(IRE) x Danehill, trained by samurai] has his recent form hinting at a career renaissance after a very good stakes effort last out down the road in Eastern Kentucky. He altered his usual tactics of being at or near the front end, and instead rated more and closed late, winding up third and earning a 104. He’s hit the board in six of nine starts at a mile and a half, and likes to stay pretty close, so he could play a role in how things shake out. But he can close, too, which gives him options in a race such as this. Distance won’t be an issue, class shouldn’t be much of one, either, as he led much of the way in the Buck Dharma last winter and hung tough late, proving he could hang with the best. With his speed figures sitting well with these, and a slightly improved performance from his last only needed to fit in well, 11-1 seems like a fairly good value for an intriguing longshot.
Miswaki Approval [Miswaki-Dixie Prospector, by With Approval, trained by lesonaka] is 42-1 and the biggest shot in the field, and while ordinarily the presence of such a big price in a big race can imply ambition the size of Cleveland, this one’s not quite so far-fetched. A $50,000 claim last out, this eight-year-old is a Grade III winner on the turf from way back in 2004, and is Grade I-placed. And yet, were anyone else reasonably astute, they could have had him for $50,000 back in March, or even $20,000 last December. An eight-year-old graded winner is typically past his prime at this stage, but a new barn can usually work wonders for morale. He sure can use a healthy dose of good morale, as his last few outings have been something below decent but above abysmal. He’s been off since the March claim, a best-of-the-rest fourth over a yielding course that got a 75 for the effort, but the two months in a new barn should rejuvenate him. As for running back to the good ol’ days, well, it’s been eighteen months since his last win that wasn’t a claimer or starter, and twenty-two months since the last time he broke 100 in speed figures, so even though he’s a deep closer, he’s at the very least going to need the race, and quite possibly some aspirin for afterwards. A Grade I is a good place to start, though, and the distance should be to his liking, so, it’s all about baby steps.
Empire Shaker [Empire Maker-Doctor Opal(IRE), by Swain(IRE), trained by almightymi] will certainly be at the front of this field, even if he might not get the lead outright here. Going to the lead has served him well overall, with six gate-to-wire wins out of his thirty-three starts, and this includes his lone stakes win two years ago. That doesn’t mean he has no back class, as he was third at 3 in the Grade I Victorian Derby, and actually tried coming off the pace when second in the Grade II Longstickgoboom eleven months ago (a career-best 103). He should have an appreciation for the distance, also, even though a majority of his races at the distance found him alone up front early, only to fade late. His recent speed figures have slid a little, back into the mid-90s, but he’s been capable of tossing out a triple-digit figure as recently as last September, so it’s a matter of whether he gets out on the early lead alone, if he’ll have company, and just how much pressure he can withstand to hang in there late. It’s not impossible, particularly this time, considering that usually he’s at the mercy of average or journeyman jockeys in the irons; here he gets the services of Northern California circuit leader J White, which should aid his hopes to an extent.
The selections:
1. Horseshoe Bay
2. Confederacy
3. Scooby Wells(IRE)
4. Mine D’Inverne
5. Bane
Good luck to all on Bluegrass Derby Day, and happy racing.