2007 Adelaide Derby

This week’s stellar card in Victoria is highlighted by the prestigious Adelaide Derby, run over the taxing and true derby distance of a mile and half.  The Adelaide Derby is steeped in history and has become the launching pad of many of the games great turf routers.  Past winners include- Cortez, Horseshoe Bay, Sunnybank Memorial, Kayla’s Missile and Gladiator, who also holds the race record in 2 minutes and 30 seconds flat.

In most years the Sydney Derby provides the horses and form for the Adelaide Derby, with horses like Horseshoe Bay and Sunnybank Memorial backing up and steamrolling the division.  This year is going to be different with none of the placegetters from the Sydney Derby electing to make the trip over the border to Victoria and stamp their authority on the division.  The field looks wide open, with the highest ranked runner only carrying 21 stakes points but with the Derby De English looming large on the horizon it is time for one of these colts to stand up and stake their claim in history.

ALT UNIVERSE(KY) (theoc2)– colt by Rock Hard Ten that is on the way up.  Started as a late 2yo on the dirt and after breaking his maiden over 8fl has switched to the turf and relished the change in track.  His last 2 wins have been commanding victories in allowances over 9.5fl and 11fl.  Biggest query in Saturday’s race is his lack of stakes experience, until they actually perform at that level you just never know.  However countering that is the fact he is proven at close to the distance which is a major asset in these early distance races.  Theoc2 was unable to engage one of the top jocks and will have the services of out of form jock S Demarchi, who is 0 and 27 for the year and riding in one of the biggest races of his life.

 SHORHYTHM(AUS) (perko111)– scratched bred colt by Aussie sire Shoreblue that has taken awhile to find his feet and mature.  He took 8 races to break his maiden after experimenting early on the dirt.  His latest form has been encouraging as he has stepped up in distance and matured.  He placed in an overnight stakes over 9.5fl and won an allowance easily over 11fl in moderate time last time out. Perko111 has engaged B Euler for riding duties, who has had a solid year riding at around 10%.  Shorhythm looks like a strong horse, it is his first attempt at this level of racing and it is going to be a steep learning curve for him but if he can find a position up front on the rail early his toughness may see him in the race for sometime.

SIX MOON ORBIT(KY) (kyclocker1)– Kentucky blue blood by Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.  Since switching to turf he has built a good record winning over $120000 and taking out 2 overnight stakes events.  His racing has been restricted to 9fl so far and it is going to be a big step up on Saturday to 12fl.  His racing style suggests that he may enjoy the extra distance as he has been closing strongly over 9fl but plenty are able to close over the shorter trips but are left gasping for air once they are stepped up past a mile and a quarter.  L Ward is the jockey that has been tasked with guiding him on Saturday and he is having a solid year riding around 11%.  Six Moon Orbit is definitely one of the better performed horses coming into Saturday’s race however his sire isn’t noted for producing long turf routers and this is a tough spot to break the mould.

SUPER LIGHT(IRE) (bunsay)– first offspring by 13 times stakes winner Nag of Notley by the outstanding 2^nd year sire North Light.  He is yet to win again after breaking his maiden although he has been competitive in overnight stakes races in his last 2 outings over 11fl and 9.5fl.  W Barnett has the job of lifting Super Light to new heights this weekend and he is having a good year winning at 13%.  While Super Light is a nice horse that will break his stakes duck egg at some stage this year his form line isn’t really that of an Adelaide Derby winner and it will take a sharp improvement for him to win on Saturday.

OTTO NIGHTS(KY) (rori)– beautifully bred and performed colt by Seeking The Gold that comes into Saturday’s race off a commanding victory in a Gr III over 11fl 3 weeks ago.  He started his career on the dirt but it is on the turf that he has really excelled winning 4 times and placing twice in 7 attempts.  It was in his last race that he really stamped himself as a serious Derby horse, sitting just off the pace and strolling to the lead down the stretch to take victory by 2 and half lengths.  F Moon has the reins on Saturday and while he isn’t one of the top noted jockeys in Victoria he is having a very good year winning at 15% and has won stakes of nearly 5 million in total.  Otto Nights is great value with the bookies at 11/1 for Saturday’s race and is the only horse that has won at Group level close to the Derby’s distance.  If he has come through his last run with no ill effects it is hard to see him being too far from the finish on Saturday.

ALL RIGHT(KY) (peeps10)– today’s equal morning line favourite is by A.P Indy stallion Mingun out of the stakes winning Summer Squall mare Ongoing Wail.  Another colt that started out on the dirt only to find the grass more to his liking and after switching surfaces and breaking his maiden he has missed a place only once in 6 races on the grass.  He has improved steadily as the year has progressed to the point where he won an overnight stakes race last time out over 11fl.  He tends to get back in his races however, as the distances have stepped up he has begun to race more handily so look for D Evans, Victoria’s top jock, to have him placed midfield just off the speed on Saturday.  It was a big coup for peeps10 to get the services of D Evans and with All Right already proving himself over 11fl this bloke has the form and jockey to get the job done come raceday.

RURAL LAW(IRE) (vettori)– scratch bred colt by Law Society(Ire) that is coming off an overnight stakes victory last time out over 9.5fl.  He has been mixing racing in sprints and routes with some success lately, winning a stakes at both.  There are some concerns however as his last victory was over just 3 other competitors and he may not have enough miles in his legs with his recent runs to handle the gruelling mile and a half.  Compounding this is Vettori’s jockey selection of M Redden who has just the one victory this year from 36 rides.  Rural Law deserves his shot at a Derby but he may find this grade just above him.

EXCLUSIVE HABITAT(ENG) (iant8)– strapping colt by Sakhee who is ready to step up and challenge the division.  He has been brought along patiently by Iant8 breaking his maiden at his second attempt before annexing an allowance and stakes in commanding fashion.  Last time out he went head to head with the champ Mambo Wildcat and was ultra impressive going down by 2 lengths but managing to account for the rest of the field, with the 3^rd place getter another 2 lengths in arrears.  There isn’t a better form line in the game at the moment and the experienced P Lipps will be in the saddle, who is having another solid year riding at nearly 14%.  We know he is very good over 9fl but Saturday’s race is an extra 3fl and that is the great question- “Will he get the distance?” His breeding suggests it shouldn’t be a problem, he will more than likely lead and if there is no pressure he may just have the race shot to pieces as they enter the long Victorian straight.

FALLING DOWN(IRE) (shamrandk)– here is a horse that is bred to be a Derby winner, by Galileo(Ire) out of the Sakhee mare Glory of Rum.  He has improved as he has matured and found distances more to his liking.  2 starts back he strolled home in an allowance over 11fl before just failing to pick up the winner last time out in an overnight stakes over 9.5fl.  His racing pattern has 12fl written all over it, he drops out early and unwinds around the turn and down the stretch.  N Fagan has the task of finding a clear passage from the back of the pack and he is out of touch a little at the moment, riding at just 7% for the year.  It is a big ask for a horse yet to win a stakes to come out and blow them away in an Adelaide Derby but if there is a horse that is going to surprise at big odds it could well be this bloke.

 EL KURSAAL(KY) (layequada)– stoutly bred colt by Unbridled’s Song out of the A.P Indy mare Kursaal.  This guy has promised quite a bit but just failed to deliver when it counts.  He flashes up like he is going to win easily but more often than not usually finds a couple better.  He won his second race 2 starts back in a restricted allowance over 11fl and performed well last time out placing 2^nd in a stakes won by All Right, who he meets again today.  Whilst El Kursaal is nice horse it is hard to seem him finding a way to win in such a big race when he struggles to take the major slice in allowance races.  N Hartel is the jockey charged with turning this colt’s frustrating form around and he is an experienced jockey that may just have a few tricks up his sleeve.

C YOU AT THE WIRE(IRE) (lawyerron)– another classically bred derby horse by High Chaparral(Ire) out of a Rainbow Quest mare.  He is one of the most experienced horses in the race with 15 races and 4 stakes victories, however, all of those wins were over the sprint journey.  Lawyerron has stepped his charge up in distance with his last 2 runs and C You At The Wire has responded well.  He finished 2^nd to Otto Nights last time out in a Gr III over 11fl, leading most of the way before being passed down the stretch.  J “Cotton Fingers” Kohlmorgen is in the saddle on Saturday and after another stellar year riding winners at nearly 18% he will attempt to hold C You At The Wire together down the stretch as the swoopers strike.  As good as his last run was it is hard to see C You At The Wire turning the tables on Otto Nights and with Exclusive Habitat also likely to go forward he wont get everything his own way out in front.

JENYAN(GB) (dowelly)– half sister to Dowelly’s former top mare Amanda Jane by English Sire Beat Hollow.  He has built a nice record on the turf earning over $200000, 7 races and 2 stakes events.  Jenyan has performed well between 8 and 10fl without really being tested against the better horses or running outstanding time.  Saturday is crunch day, Dowelly has been patient with his colt to this point and it is now time to test him against the best horses over a distance that may be out of his comfort zone.  B Johnson has been engaged for the Derby and he is having another strong year riding at 10% and closing in on $10 million dollars life time earnings. If Jenyan is anywhere near as good as his famed half sister he will provide a strong presence on Saturday but on recent form he is going to have to find a gear that we havent seen from him yet.

FALSE MEMORIES(KY) (lender4)– striking colt by superstar stallion Kingmambo out of a War Chant mare.  As a 2yo this fella was good enough to run in the Breeders Bowl Turf Juvenile and he has carried on with that form at 3 winning twice and placing in 3 starts this year.  Last start was his first true test at a distance past 8.5fl and he passed with flying colours, strolling to victory in a weak stakes over 9.5fl.  It is very hard to gauge how good this bloke is at the moment and where he lies in relation to the other contenders as he really hasn’t been extended this year and he is an unknown quantity at the distance.  B Ridgle will be his rider and he is having a career best year at the moment, booting them home at 14%.  He is one of 3 or 4 that are going to push forward and I think the key to his chances is how much juice he uses early from a wide barrier, breeding says he should see the trip out but only time will tell.

BAGORED(FR) (zwhisper)– nice brown colt by champion European stallion Bago, who won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2004, from the Red Ransom mare Granny Cannon.  He is still a fairly lightly raced colt with just the 7 starts resulting in 2 wins.  But it is his last 2 races that have impressed and kept the bookies on their toes.  Two back he won a nice allowance over 8.5fl recording an SP of 98 and then followed up in the same race as Exclusive Habitat, running 3^rd in a Gr I behind Mambo Wildcat over 9fl.  He closed well last time out without ever threatening the top 2 and combined with his breeding it would be surprising if he doesn’t relish the added distance on Saturday.  Zwhisper has engaged G Adler for the mount and he is having a fairly quiet year by his standards, with only 4 winners at 6%.  Bagored is a well performed horse with the pedigree and race day form to take this sort of a race out but it will be a big performance to turn the tables on Exclusive Habitat who beat him fairly convincingly last time out.

Well there you have it fellow simmers, the 2007 version of the great Adelaide Derby.  It is a very open field and on face value doesn’t seem to be a classic year for 3yo’s but don’t be surprised if you see tomorrow’s winner go on to further glories later in the year in races such as the Derby de English and Breeders Bowl.

At the risk of having egg all over my face I will have a stab at the top 3 that I think will fight the finish out.

Exclusive Habitat really looks like a nice colt on the way up to me.  He still has to prove himself over the distance but I can’t see his breeding holding him back.  Sakhee has been a solid producer in the Sim, even providing a Kentucky Derby winner in his first year at stud and this guy looks bound for graded success, maybe even as soon as Saturday.

Otto Nights is the horse in form with a win at close to the distance at graded level.  Seeking The Gold is not the type of sire I envision winning over 12fl on the grass but he is as good as there is in the Sim and he has shown time and time again he can throw a real champion.  The jockey is in form and he is the value bet of the race at 11/1.

False Memories is the other horse that grabs my attention.  He has ticked along slowly this year peaking at the right time.  His breeding screams classic winner and if he doesn’t get caught up in a speed dual with Exclusive Habitat he may just be the one that keeps on rolling on.

Good luck to all trainers on what promises to be a great day.

bjbandit