FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND WEEK 01/15/2017
Congratulations to cvbear and masterm who this week trained our Usain Bolt & Billy the Kid awards respectively.
Cvbear’s stallion ‘River of Doubt’ took out the top honour and I should point out is currently ranked #1 in the dirt routing division. A nice horse you have there cv, son of Orb who by the way is at the time of writing available on credits and going cheap. Big run in G2 company earned cvbear his entry into the trainer charts this week well done.
Like last week’s 2yo result there are several N/A’s listed in the analysis section of this week’s winner by Choisir. Debut looks solid albeit a hot race. This filly has a nice back end and mare to suggest this result may not be a once off and we may be seeing plenty more to come from this one out of Masterm’s training facility. Well done to you also.
It looks as though the 2yo’s are mainly hotracing for these SP’s at present it will be interesting to see as the year rolls on how the SP’s stack up from these early runners in allowance level racing.
I’ve had a couple of PM’s from people too asking me if I can analyse the Eclipse award winners along the same lines as these fastest horses. I think its a great idea thanks for the feedback I’ll try to do this for you guys as well over the coming weeks in addition to the weekly top SP analysis. They’ll be a stand alone analysis however I won’t include these results in the ‘series summary’ section.
I’ll probably try to group them as well so one week I’ll do the 4 2yo winners, then the 6? 3yo winners, then the older horses or something along those lines anyway seems to make sense to me.
Anyways without further ado……..
Each week Zapspride posts his ‘Top 25 Speeds of the Week’ article which lists (as the name suggests) the fastest 25 horses in Simulated racing as well as the 25 fastest 2 year olds.
Here we take a look at the raw data to see what (if any) patterns emerge from the fastest horses in the Sim.
‘Usain Bolt’ is the weekly award given to the fastest horse in Simland while ‘Billy The Kid’ is the weekly honour to the fastest 2yo.
My whole analysis is based on 12 ‘factors’. The first 6 are TRAINING factors and the last 6 are BREEDING factors:
1. Time Of Debut – A very important training consideration. We know that there is an in built ‘wear & tear’ factor in the game. As horses race, a little bit each time gets nipped off their lifespan. This is the simulated version of joint wear and tear and other bodily injury/fatigue sustained during a horse’s career. Does debuting a horse early really effect their ability down the track? Does the month of the debut drastically effect later output?
2. Two Year Old Runs – We are told and presume that the more a horse races then as a general rule the harder the wear and tear and most likely the earlier a horse’s career will be ended. Is this reflected in our fastest horses? Does the 2yo each week have a pattern – are they lightly raced or are they all used up as 2yo to attain the SP? Are we seeing older horses that had any races as 2yo? Many? None? Is there a pattern to in this regard to our weekly fastest horse?
3. Time Between Runs – So we all know backing a horse up at 7 day intervals really doesn’t work very well unless you’re hoping to be the Hot Race king and clean up your 2yo first 10 starts on the trot. However what is the most beneficial time between races? Many trainers suggest no less than 6, others say 4 – 6, others say so long as a minimum of 3 weeks you’ll be fine and others are of the opinion that so long as it’s not a regular thing 2 weeks is also ok. 2 year olds need to be given even longer. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Are we all right? Or are we all wrong? Who knows that’s part of the beauty of this great game that we all have different opinions and seem to be able to get the most out of our horses……. Or do we?
4. Class Drop – Did this horse drop back in class to attain the SP? Many trainers believe that dropping a horse back in class will result in an improved performance. eg dropping back from a G1 to G3 or ungraded stakes to an alw, etc.
5. Distance Drop – Very similar to ‘Class Drop’ it is thought within the sim training community that dropping back in distance can likewise yield huge improvements in performance
6. Surface Switch – Many times a horse will seemingly prefer one surface then run into a dead end of performance. This can be the game’s way of intuitively directing trainers to where their horse is best placed. I know one trainer who if their horse doesn’t win (or run very well) after 2 consecutive starts on any given surface that this is enough to make the switch. How many times racing before making the switch is an individual trainer preference however here we will look for a pattern in this aspect.
7. Current Sire Cost – Each week this will be measured based on breeding points (as credits can be unknown when being bought over 1000). The measurement will be taken at the time of writing the article so is prone to fluctuation.
8. Available on Credits – A simple measure of the 3 sires that were used in the breeding as to whether they are currently available on credits to see if there is any pattern here. Listed in the format S/DS/DDS.
9. Scratchbred or Dam – Is the horse from a mare (and if so how good was the mare? What surface did she prefer?) or was the horse bred from scratch.
10. Dosage – Many in the sim believe dosage is very important in determining performance of the offspring, while others are not so convinced. This will be a simple look at whether dosage in this case has lined up with the result seen (as I presume top SP of the week is achieved at ideal surface/distance/class for any given horse.) I won’t go into the ins and outs of dosage there are a number of great articles on dosage I’ll just post it here to allow you guys to make your own deductions.
11. Inbreeding – Is the horse inbred through the 3 x 4 breeding box and if so who to and how many times. This box I refer to is the one generated from the 3 sire panel for every horse when you click on any given horse’s 3 sire breeding combination.
12. Sire Ratio – All game sires are rated as either (R) or (S) ie. Route or Speed and also (T) or (D) ie. Turf or Dirt. Many trainers like to use different combinations of route and speed when breeding however is this playing a role? Is it important at all? Are certain combinations working better than others? Are the highest sps correlating in any way to the sire ratio. This will be written in the order S/DS/DDS as per other categories here. Likewise do mixtures of Turf and Dirt breeds work? Or does it mess horses up? Does it even matter? Or is a consistent approach better and produce more reliable results?
THE FASTEST HORSES IN SIMLAND THIS WEEK ARE……………..
USAIN BOLT: SP: 121.075
‘River of Doubt’ (Orb x Wild Again x Alydar) 5yo Horse. G1 Winner.
| R | W | P | S | $ | |
| Career | 17 | 11 | 2 | 1 | $2,800,465 |
| Dirt | 17 | 11 | 2 | 1 | $2,800,465 |
| Turf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Poly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Sprint | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | $12,650 |
| Routes | 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | $2,787,815 |
| Off | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
1. Time Of Debut: November 2yo
2. Two Year Old Runs: 1
3. Time Between Runs: No specific pattern found. Trainer tends to give 6 weeks off between runs particularly early on in career and then every 3 to 4 runs would allow a 10 – 11 week spell. More recently has been running 30 days.
4. Class Drop: YES. G1 to G2
5. Distance Drop: NO. Increased by 0.5f to 8.5f
6. Surface Switch: NO. Lead up also dirt
7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 376/287/255
8. Available on Credits: YES/YES/NO
9. Scratchbred or Dam: Scratchbred
10. Dosage: DI : 3.73 | CD : 0.88
8-7-11-0-0
11. Inbreeding: NO
12. Sire Ratio: DR/DS/DR
BILLY THE KID: SP: 73.760
‘Jenna’s Promise’ (Choisir x Kitten’s Joy x Forty Niner). 2yo filly. Maiden hotrace Winner.
| R | W | P | S | $ | |
| Career | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $3,000 |
| Dirt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Turf | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $3,000 |
| Poly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Sprint | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $3,000 |
| Routes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Off | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
1. Time Of Debut: January 2yo
2. Two Year Old Runs: 1
3. Time Between Runs: N/A
4. Class Drop: N/A
5. Distance Drop: N/A
6. Surface Switch: N/A
7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 208/1000/209
8. Available on Credits: YES/NO/YES
9. Scratchbred or Dam: DAM. Stakes winner of $390k on turf. Winner of 14 races from 28 career starts
10. Dosage: DI : 2.11 | CD : 0.64
4-3-5-2-0
11. Inbreeding: NO
12. Sire Ratio: TS/TR/DS
1. HONOUR ROLL
|
SIM WEEK |
USAIN BOLT |
BILLY THE KID |
|
6th November 2016 |
Outback Kialla |
Warriors Danz Ted |
|
13th November 2016 |
Fear The Freak |
Sand Tempest |
|
20th November 2016 |
Streets of Sin |
Two Dozen Roses |
|
27TH November 2016 |
Darkside Will |
Hyperactivity |
|
4th December 2016 |
Tap Suzy |
Dark Maduro |
|
11th December 2016 |
Destroyer of Suns |
Finally The One |
|
18th December 2016 |
Rynning |
Crimson’s Star |
|
25th December 2016 |
Ya Jackwagon |
Yankee Great |
|
1st January 2017 |
Tap Suzy |
Eclipse Solar |
|
8th January 2017 |
Norseman |
I Stay All Day |
|
15th January 2017 |
River of Doubt |
Jenna’s Promise |
2. TRAINER LEADER BOARD
Balata 4
Robscoobi 2
Vyz 2
Lenny271 2
Knightmare 2
Rvd 2
Dixiedotco 2
Gcliffo 2
Skunkbarn 2
Coolk 2
CVbear 2
Amir1605 1
Woodenjock 1
Asmussen 1
Lightng99 1
Jockeymax 1
Latekick 1
Haack 1
Gezlodge 1
Masterm 1
3. SIRE LEADER BOARD
|
USAIN BOLT |
BILLY THE KID |
|
Awesome Again 2 |
Majestic Warrior 1 |
|
Tapit 2 |
Trippi 1 |
|
Will Take Charge 1 |
Distorted Humor 1 |
|
Street Cry 1 |
City Zip 1 |
|
Medaglia D’Oro 1 |
Intello 1 |
|
Lawman 1 |
American Pharoah 1 |
|
Lonhro 1 |
Sea The Stars 1 |
|
Galileo 1 |
One Great Cat 1 |
|
Orb 1 |
Malibu Moon 1 |
|
Zagreb 1 |
|
|
Choisir 1 |
4. FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND : Tap Suzy 123.6724
5. SERIES SUMMARY
n=11
|
Usain Bolt |
Billy The Kid |
|||||
|
Time of Debut |
2yo: 10 3yo: 1 4yo:0 |
Jan-June:10 July-Dec:1 |
||||
|
2yo Runs |
0:1 1-3: 5 3-5:5 6+: |
1-3:2 3-5:3 6+:6 |
||||
|
Time Between Runs |
<3w: 3-4w: 4w+:11 |
<3w:1 3-4w: 4w+:9 |
||||
|
Class Drop |
No: 8 Yes:3 |
No:6 Yes:3 |
||||
|
Distance Drop |
No: 9 Yes:2 |
No:8 Yes:1 |
||||
|
Surface Switch |
No: 11 Yes: |
No:9 Yes: |
||||
|
Current Sire Cost |
<1250:3 >1250:8 |
<1250:4 >1250:7 |
||||
|
Available on Credits |
YES: NO:11 |
YES: 4 NO:7 |
||||
|
Scratchbred or Dam |
Scratch:6 Dam:5 |
Scratch:5 Dam:6 |
||||
|
Dosage |
Surface Distance |
Surface Distance |
||||
|
Inbreeding |
YES:1 NO:10 |
YES:4 NO:7 |
||||
|
Sire Ratio |
Surface Distance |
Surface Distance |
*Dosage column: Yes/No based on whether dosage indicated correct surface & distance
*Sire Ratio: Yes/No based on whether ratio indicated correct surface & distance combination based on 2/3 majority of sire ratings. eg. If 2x TR and 1 x TS then the resulting 2/3 majority being assessed would be TR. Example would be Dansili (TS) x Kingmambo(TR) x Northern Dancer(TR). (S) will be assessed as <8f.
*Current sire cost is total breeding points of all 3 sires used. I felt 1250 to be fair, allows for 250 for DDS, 500 DS, 500 sire. I chose this figure fairy arbitrarily.
*Available on credits: All 3 sires in the breeding need to be available in order to mark a ‘YES’ result.
*Billy The Kid marked ‘N/A’ for distance assessment under both Sire Ratio and Dosage as it is inaccurate to make a call on 2yo handling distance or not as a general rule.