You Guys Know What Time of Year it is? It’s Bluegrass Derby Time!

The end of another racing season has bestowed itself upon us, and with the end comes new beginnings; a time when trainers start thinking about the American Classic, the Bluegrass Derby.  2017 will mark the 18^th running of the Bluegrass Derby, and once again trainers will be wondering if their horse has what it takes to compete with racing’s best three-year old’s.

Only a select number of horses have had the fortitude to take home America’s most treasured race and take their place in annals of SIM history. The Road to the Derby is never easy path to navigate with many obstacles along the way, while only precious few have found the way.

Many of you may wonder what it takes to be a Derby contender?  What is the Road to the Derby?  Let’s start at the beginning.

 1.  Well by now your Derby hopeful has been bred and with some good fortune you bred a horse from Kentucky.  Only 6 of the 17 Bluegrass Derby winners were bred outside of Kentucky, including last year’s Derby winner PAPA’S GHOST TED (CA).  Oh, and I should mention that no AUS bred has ever won the Derby.  Last year DOUBLE DISSOLUTION came close but we all know close only counts in horseshoes, curling, and bocce ball.

2.  OK so maybe your colt is a Kentucky bred and if not, well you still have a 35% chance for success, but what about the Dosage Index?  Huh? You know that mathematical figure used by breeders to compute a horse’s ability, or inability, to run at various distances based on an analysis of the horse’s pedigree.  The number that changes every time a new chef-de-race is declared.  Well it can all seem very silly, but the fact remains that 16 of the 17 previous Bluegrass Derby winners had Dosage Index of under 4.00.  Starting to panic?

3.  Breathing easy now, got everything under control, all criteria met so far, well I hope you didn’t breed a horse from scratch.  Since 2002 only one (1) yes one (1) Bluegrass Derby winner has been bred from scratch.

4.  Got a Filly? Think she’s the real deal?  Want her to run in the Derby? Why?  No filly has ever won the Bluegrass, and quite frankly if SWAPSCO KITTY couldn’t do it what makes you think your filly can?
5.  Thirteen (13) of the (17) Bluegrass Derby winners broke their maiden in either their first or second career start; 15 of the 17 have done so within the first 2 starts on dirt.  Already in despair?  Take comfort in knowing that last year’s Bluegrass Derby, PAPA’S GHOST TED didn’t break his maiden until his 4^th career start.

6. Still sitting pretty? Got all that criteria covered? Then you must have a top tier two-year old ready to take his place in history.  Not so fast, the Road begins…There is the curse of the Breeders Bowl Juvenile / Eclipse Award winner.  Curse? What curse?  Only BUDA WITH THE SLEW (2001) and TOWER STORM (2002) have won the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, Eclipse Award and Bluegrass Derby.  That was a long time ago, when wear and tear isn’t what it is today.

7.  Thinking Ok Mr. know it all so what’s next, what races do I choose and what races do I avoid?  Ok I will tell you; thought you were slick; avoided the Breeders Bowl Juvenile; entered the highly sought after Movieland late in the two-year old season; padded your stakes points to put you way up in the rankings almost assuredly making the derby field with a victory, even feeling good about a second or third place finish.  Well I hate to be the bearer of bad news but only one (1) horse, VIRTUOSO has ever finished ITM (In the Money) in the Movieland and gone on to win the Bluegrass Derby.

8.  Over the last 10 years five (5) of the Lock Race winners have gone on to win the Bluegrass Derby.

9.  Ok trot thanks but you are a little late with all that information, what can I do going forward?  Fifteen (15) of the seventeen (17) Bluegrass Derby winners won a race of one mile and an eighth (9 furlongs) or longer prior to winning the Derby.
10. Naturally your horse must be good to win the Derby, but how good?  Every Derby winner, with the exceptions being LUCKY’S HOWIE (2010) and last year’s winner PAPA’S GHOST TED, has won a Graded race as a three-year old prior to winning the Derby.

11. How important are the final two prep races before the Derby?  Fifteen (15) of the seventeen (17) Bluegrass Derby winners won a Graded race in one of their two final preps before the Derby.  Eleven (11) won a graded race in their final prep.  Last year’s winner, PAPA’S GHOST TED was an exception.

12. What about running style?  Only three (3) horses have ever won the Derby in gate to wire fashion, while only four (4) horses have won the Derby coming from more than eight (8) lengths back at either the second or third call.

You may have noticed that PAPA’S GHOST TED, much like LUCKY’S HOWIE (2010), are the exceptions to quite a bit of the Bluegrass Derby criteria.  While not to diminish the remarkable performances of both these SIM legends, it should be mentioned, for purposes of the information contained in this article, that neither horse, in a combined 34 starts, has gone on to win another Stakes race of any variety since their Bluegrass Derby victories, perhaps suggesting they were more an aberration than the normality.  Nonetheless it is comforting to know that once they line up in the starting gate on that first Saturday in May, anything is possible.

COMING SOON****** The BLUEGRASS DERBY WATCH with a surprise guest handicapper