FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND WEEK 25/12/2016

 

This week’s edition brings two really interesting results.

Firstly Skunkbarn has produced our first Usain Bolt that hasn’t been a 8 or 8.5f result. This week’s fastest horse in the Sim has been produced at 9f which is a bit of an anomaly based on the stats so far but great to see.

Secondly our Billy The Kid winner is a bit of an interesting one in terms of his breeding. He has a young sire at DDS, a very cheap sire and a 3 way mix in his sire ratio that has produced an odd result for his SP this week. His trainer Latekick has either struck it lucky here or is a genius with his breeding and training methods. A really interesting result regardless to analyse and as a result sees an 18BP sire enter the sire stats. This horse has been really well managed by his trainer to get the result.

The trend for colts continues, both this weeks results are colts which brings our colts winning awards now to 15/16 of the results and overwhelmingly the SP’s are being produced at 8-8.5f.

Congratulations this week to Skunkbarn and Latekick who this week hit the scoreboard and start their claim for the title of the FASTEST TRAINER IN SIMLAND.

Meanwhile Tap Suzy is still holding the title of FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND with his previously posted SP of 123.672.

 

 

Each week Zapspride posts his ‘Top 25 Speeds of the Week’ article which lists (as the name suggests) the fastest 25 horses in Simulated racing as well as the 25 fastest 2 year olds.

Here we take a look at the raw data to see what (if any) patterns emerge from the fastest horses in the Sim.

‘Usain Bolt’ is the weekly award given to the fastest horse in Simland while ‘Billy The Kid’ is the weekly honour to the fastest 2yo.

 

 

My whole analysis is based on 12 ‘factors’. The first 6 are TRAINING factors and the last 6 are BREEDING factors:

 

1. Time Of Debut – A very important training consideration. We know that there is an in built ‘wear & tear’ factor in the game. As horses race, a little bit each time gets nipped off their lifespan. This is the simulated version of joint wear and tear and other bodily injury/fatigue sustained during a horse’s career. Does debuting a horse early really effect their ability down the track? Does the month of the debut drastically effect later output?

 

2. Two Year Old Runs – We are told and presume that the more a horse races then as a general rule the harder the wear and tear and most likely the earlier a horse’s career will be ended. Is this reflected in our fastest horses? Does the 2yo each week have a pattern – are they lightly raced or are they all used up as 2yo to attain the SP? Are we seeing older horses that had any races as 2yo? Many? None? Is there a pattern to in this regard to our weekly fastest horse?

 

3. Time Between Runs – So we all know backing a horse up at 7 day intervals really doesn’t work very well unless you’re hoping to be the Hot Race king and clean up your 2yo first 10 starts on the trot. However what is the most beneficial time between races? Many trainers suggest no less than 6, others say 4 – 6, others say so long as a minimum of 3 weeks you’ll be fine and others are of the opinion that so long as it’s not a regular thing 2 weeks is also ok. 2 year olds need to be given even longer. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Are we all right? Or are we all wrong? Who knows that’s part of the beauty of this great game that we all have different opinions and seem to be able to get the most out of our horses……. Or do we?

 

4. Class Drop – Did this horse drop back in class to attain the SP? Many trainers believe that dropping a horse back in class will result in an improved performance. eg dropping back from a G1 to G3 or ungraded stakes to an alw, etc.

 

5. Distance Drop – Very similar to ‘Class Drop’ it is thought within the sim training community that dropping back in distance can likewise yield huge improvements in performance

 

6. Surface Switch – Many times a horse will seemingly prefer one surface then run into a dead end of performance. This can be the game’s way of intuitively directing trainers to where their horse is best placed. I know one trainer who if their horse doesn’t win (or run very well) after 2 consecutive starts on any given surface that this is enough to make the switch. How many times racing before making the switch is an individual trainer preference however here we will look for a pattern in this aspect.

 

7. Current Sire Cost – Each week this will be measured based on breeding points (as credits can be unknown when being bought over 1000). The measurement will be taken at the time of writing the article so is prone to fluctuation.

 

8. Available on Credits – A simple measure of the 3 sires that were used in the breeding as to whether they are currently available on credits to see if there is any pattern here. Listed in the format S/DS/DDS.

 

9. Scratchbred or Dam – Is the horse from a mare (and if so how good was the mare? What surface did she prefer?) or was the horse bred from scratch.

 

10. Dosage – Many in the sim believe dosage is very important in determining performance of the offspring, while others are not so convinced. This will be a simple look at whether dosage in this case has lined up with the result seen (as I presume top SP of the week is achieved at ideal surface/distance/class for any given horse.) I won’t go into the ins and outs of dosage there are a number of great articles on dosage I’ll just post it here to allow you guys to make your own deductions.

 

11. Inbreeding – Is the horse inbred through the 3 x 4 breeding box and if so who to and how many times. This box I refer to is the one generated from the 3 sire panel for every horse when you click on any given horse’s 3 sire breeding combination.

 

12. Sire Ratio – All game sires are rated as either (R) or (S) ie. Route or Speed and also (T) or (D) ie. Turf or Dirt. Many trainers like to use different combinations of route and speed when breeding however is this playing a role? Is it important at all? Are certain combinations working better than others? Are the highest sps correlating in any way to the sire ratio. This will be written in the order S/DS/DDS as per other categories here. Likewise do mixtures of Turf and Dirt breeds work? Or does it mess horses up? Does it even matter? Or is a consistent approach better and produce more reliable results?

 

 

 

 

THE FASTEST HORSES IN SIMLAND THIS WEEK ARE……………..

 

 

USAIN BOLT:      SP: 121.769

‘Ya Jackwagon’ (Lonhro x Danehill x Halo) 3yo colt. G2 Winner.

 

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	13	7	2	2	$450,410
Dirt	0	0	0	0	$0
Turf	13	7	2	2	$450,410
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	3	1	0	1	$41,026
Routes	10	6	2	1	$409,384
Off	1	0	0	0	$1,686

 

1. Time Of Debut: May 2yo

2. Two Year Old Runs: 5

3. Time Between Runs: Roughly 8 weekly as a 2yo and then 6 weekly as a 3yo. Has been raced sparingly.

4. Class Drop: NO. This was a G2, jumped from an ungraded stakes

5. Distance Drop: YES. Dropped ½ furlong to 9.5f

6. Surface Switch: NO. All races on turf in career so far

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 515/628/178

8. Available on Credits: YES/NO/YES

9. Scratchbred or Dam: Scratchbred

10. Dosage: DI : 2.20 | CD : 0.63
4-2-10-0-0

11. Inbreeding: NO.

12. Sire Ratio: TR/TR/DR

 

 

 

BILLY THE KID:    SP: 101.698

‘Yankee Great’ (One Great Cat x Thunder Gulch x Kitten’s Joy). 2yo colt.  Ungraded Stakes Winner.

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	7	5	1	1	$107,275
Dirt	7	5	1	1	$107,275
Turf	0	0	0	0	$0
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	5	4	1	0	$37,275
Routes	2	1	0	1	$70,000
Off	0	0	0	0	$0

 

1. Time Of Debut: 2yo March

2. Two Year Old Runs: 7

3. Time Between Runs: Seems to alternate 6 weeks, 8 weeks, 6 weeks, 8 weeks, etc.

4. Class Drop: NO. Previous race was also ungraded stakes

5. Distance Drop: NO. Previous race same distance 8f

6. Surface Switch: NO. All career runs on dirt

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 18/319/199

8. Available on Credits: YES/YES/YES

9. Scratchbred or Dam: Scratchbred

10. Dosage: DI : 3.57 | CD : 0.88
5-4-7-0-0

11. Inbreeding: YES. Storm Bird x2

12. Sire Ratio: TS/DS/TR

 

 

1.    HONOUR ROLL

SIM WEEK	USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
6th November 2016	Outback Kialla	Warriors Danz Ted
13th November 2016	Fear The Freak	Sand Tempest
20th November 2016	Streets of Sin	Two Dozen Roses
27TH November 2016	Darkside Will	Hyperactivity
4th December 2016	Tap Suzy	Dark Maduro
11th December 2016	Destroyer of Suns	Finally The One
18th December 2016	Rynning	Crimson’s Star
25th December 2016	Ya Jackwagon	Yankee Great

 

 

2.    TRAINER LEADER BOARD

Robscoobi          2

Vyz                       2

Lenny271           2

Knightmare        2

Balata                  2

Rvd                      2

Dixiedotco          2

Gcliffo                 2

Skunkbarn          2

Amir1605           1

Woodenjock      1

Asmussen           1

Lightng99           1

Jockeymax         1

Latekick              1

 

 

3.    SIRE LEADER BOARD

USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
Awesome Again  2	Majestic Warrior  1
Street Cry 1	Trippi   1
Will Take Charge 1	Distorted Humor 1
Tapit      1	City Zip      1
Medaglia D’Oro    1	Intello      1
Lawman      1	American Pharoah   1
Lonhro      1	Sea The Stars     1
	One Great Cat      1

 

 

4. FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND   :  Tap Suzy  123.6724

 

 

5.    SERIES SUMMARY

 

n=8

	Usain Bolt	Billy The Kid
Time of Debut	2yo: 7           3yo: 1        4yo:0	Jan-June:7        July-Dec:1
2yo Runs	0:1       1-3: 2       3-5:5       6+:	1-3:           3-5:2           6+:6
Time Between Runs	<3w:           3-4w:          4w+:8	<3w:           3-4w:          4w+:8
Class Drop	No: 6             Yes:2	No:5             Yes:3
Distance Drop	No: 6            Yes:2	No:7              Yes:1
Surface Switch	No: 8             Yes:	No:8              Yes:
Current Sire Cost	<1250:2           >1250:6	<1250:3           >1250:5
Available on Credits	YES:              NO: 8	YES: 3              NO: 5
Scratchbred or Dam	Scratch:4              Dam:4	Scratch:5             Dam:3
Dosage	YES:7             NO:1 YES:8              NO: Surface                  Distance	YES:7             NO:1 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface              Distance
Inbreeding	YES:              NO:8	YES:3              NO:5
Sire Ratio	YES:8              NO: YES:6             NO:2 Surface                   Distance	YES:6              NO:2 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface                  Distance

*Dosage column: Yes/No based on whether dosage indicated correct surface & distance

*Sire Ratio: Yes/No based on whether ratio indicated correct surface & distance combination based on 2/3 majority of sire ratings. eg. If 2x TR and 1 x TS then the resulting 2/3 majority being assessed would be TR. Example would be Dansili (TS) x Kingmambo(TR) x Northern Dancer(TR). (S) will be assessed as <8f.

*Current sire cost is total breeding points of all 3 sires used. I felt 1250 to be fair, allows for 250 for DDS, 500 DS, 500 sire. I chose this figure fairy arbitrarily.

*Available on credits: All 3 sires in the breeding need to be available in order to mark a ‘YES’ result.

*Billy The Kid marked ‘N/A’ for distance assessment under both Sire Ratio and Dosage as it is inaccurate to make a call on 2yo handling distance or not as a general rule.