The Greater Fool (Grade I)

The Greater Fool (Grade I)

3 Year Olds | 1 Mile | Dirt | $500,000

As with The Chasing Greatness Handicap, The Greater Fool has been established and sponsored in an effort to give sim trainers a late opportunity to get entry points for their prized horses, getting them closer to eligibility for Breeders Bowl races. This particular race is designed to prep horses for the Breeders Bowl Mile, an 8 furlong battle among 3 year olds and older.

THE RANSTEAD ROOM (4/1)

If you’re a Philly guy or gal, you may know The Ranstead Room- a classy cocktail joint near Rittenhouse Square. Some would call it a speakeasy, reminiscent of the old days of horse racing. And the backend of THE RANSTEAD ROOM’s breeding highlights a similar feeling with STORM CAT, but more importantly SECRETARIAT featured prominently. THE RANSTEAD ROOM is coming in hot after wins in the Forestal Dirt Mile and a $75,000 allowance. The simsters trainee can stalk or close, and their connections are going to want their mount to ensure he can navigate the crowded field down the stretch. Getting boxed in will make this horse a disappointment.

RAMBLIN WRECK (7/1)

RAMBLIN WRECK has experienced a handful of losses in Grade II competition, but makes the jump this weekend anyway. He also drops a furlong back down to a distance that he had some success with earlier in the year. Closing with a ton of speed up front will make it tough on this closer, but I’m thinking this horse will respond will to the shortened race.

NATHAN’S OX (10/1)

This horse is a true pace setter; in his last eight starts, NATHAN’S OX (OXBOW x FORTY NINER x KEY TO THE MINT) has never been out of first place, with the exception of at the wire. The problem is, this horse has not faced a ton of class or great competition, and will require a significant step up in performance in order to win the Greater Fool.

SHIP IN THE NIGHT (5/1)

This cjjonesz trainee has only been around since February, but has progressed leaps and bounds each time out. Most of all, he’s been most impressive at 8 furlongs, which he gets this weekend. SHIP IN THE NIGHT likes to stalk the pace, but you can rip up your ticket if he starts to get more than a length or two off the pace. It’s usually too much for this horse to handle. That said, I really like him here.

MERGING (12/1)

In western Pennsylvania, many drivers take yield signs and treat them as stop signs, creating all sorts of confusion and panic on on-ramps of highways all across the state. Just as western Pennsylvania drivers have a tough time merging, MERGING is going to have a tough time in this Grade I stakes. This STREET MOVE colt has shown flashes of brilliance, but has not shown the consistency or competition to tell me he’s ready to take home a race like this.

ROAR CURLIN (28/1)

This horse is going to have a long steady career, but is not developing quickly enough where I think he can compete with some of the horses in this race. That said, he’s going to surprise everyone and finish way ahead of where people think he should. I would reason to guess that he may sneak into the back end of the superfectas.

RED RED READY (16/1)

After the significant jump this MORE THAN READY colt saw after moving to turf in late August, I am surprised to see it here in a dirt race. Regardless, if it continues the progression we saw in that last race, then I think RED RED READY could certainly compete. My gut tells me this horse is going to regress on dirt, and I’m going to trust my gut.

DOWNRIGHT DEADLY (5/1)

I liked the look of this horse back when I wrote about him in the State Penn Derby. If he didn’t have the outside post, he probably would have won. DOWNRIGHT DEADLY will have to navigate a ton of traffic to set the pace here, but once he does, I think he will really adjust well to the one mile distance. I like this horse in the top 3.

DARK IS PLEASED (44/1)

It is probably a mistake to give this horse 44/1 odds, considering he’s never run at a mile before. However, this horse’s body of work is still too small for me want to bet on it this weekend. Pass for now, but knowing in the back of my mind that 8 furlongs is probably this horse’s distance, and that he should be on your watch list.

DELTA CHARLIE (13/1)

Not sure this horse is going to like the surface change here, although I think he’d make a really fine turf horse. Maybe DELTA CHARLIE will have enough entry points to get into a turf race at Breeders Bowl.

ROAD TO THE WELL (22/1)

This horse is way more deserving than 22/1 odds. It made a big jump in its last two 8 furlong races, and I expect the same thing to occur this weekend. ROAD TO THE WELL needs that big jump in order to deal with a faster pace than he has ever seen before. It will be pretty apparent at the half mile whether this horse has the goods to go the distance here.

DARK ASSIDUOUS (55/1)

This colt is simply out matched here; his best speed figure is a 94 at 8 furlongs, finishing 6 lengths behind the leader in a race that was run 2 seconds slower than some of the 8 furlong races have been run by winners in this field.

GOLD SENSATION (6/1)

It’s been tough going for GOLD SENSATION since the Middle Jewel at Pimlico in June. His dry spell is almost 5 months old, and needs a hell of a race to break it this weekend. This horse is going to adjust well to the shorter distance, and the outside post position plays well to his style; he will not need to race out in front to jockey for pace, so he can drop back and wait for the right moment.

CapeCod’s Picks:

4 – SHIP IN THE NIGHT

9 – DOWNRIGHT DEADLY

14 – GOLD SENSATION

CapeCod’s All-Time Record:

4-5-6 (36%)

CapeCod’s Record Last Week:

0-1-0 (17%)