Cold but firm in the J.P.Losman Derby
It is freezing cold here in the Big Apple, but the grass is firm to contest this year’s edition of the Grade II J.P. Losman Derby. A group of thirteen grass specialists will be traveling a mile for a part of the $250,000 prize money. On paper, it looks like a two horse race, but races are run on Saturday, not on Wednesday’s, where the ML is assigned. Let’s take a look at them:
PP 1
11/1 NAILS(KY) ID# 94990
S Coomer ( 33 – 7 – 2 – 3 – 21% )
crazyjoe
3 Year Old Colt (MINESHAFT x STORM BIRD x MR. PROSPECTOR)
Bred by crazyjoe
This speedster comes from a very disappointing performance, in where he just stopped after entering the stretch in the Grade III Theregoesmyhero Stakes. But that was over a yielding turf course, and today the grass is firm and green. This son of Mineshaft looks to take advantage of the rail post and go straight to the lead, from where he has performed better during his short career. He is maybe the speed of the speed, and trainer crazyjoe hopes he can draw away with ease to have a fighting chance here. Jockey S. Coomer has the assignment with him.
PP 2
3/1 EUROTRASH(KY) ID# 124085
R Foster ( 110 – 12 – 10 – 12 – 11% )
roberto
3 Year Old Colt (EUROSILVER x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR)
Bred by mencer
Maybe the most accomplished horse in this field, with three stakes wins in ten lifetime starts, and already graded placed also, just missing by a neck last time out in the Grade III Chantilly Lace Cap. The magic of this last effort is that this was his first race over the lawn, obviously showing great affinity to it. Its no surprise that trainer roberto brings him back to the grass after such a nice performance. We can be witnessing the birth of a future turf star in this Eurosilver colt. He likes to sit in the middle of the pack and come flying from the quarter pole on. Definitely he is one of the big guns in here.
PP 3
16/1 EYES OF FIRE(KY) ID# 114129
M Humphrey ( 26 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 4% )
20two
3 Year Old Colt (KING CUGAT x IRISH RIVER(FR) x COZZENE)
Bred by 20two
Another horse whose early speed in his best allied, and he has won in distances longer than the one he will run on Saturday, The biggest obstacle for this King Cugat horse, aside of the presence of other speedsters, is that he has never faced stakes level company. All his wins have come up in allowance caliber races. Trainer 20two hopes he can improve on his best performance so far to have a chance at the minor awards here, but he acknowledges this race is much tougher that any of the ones before.
PP 4
9/2 ANGRY ALEX(KY) ID# 91841
N Lawton ( 230 – 57 – 36 – 38 – 25% )
verona
3 Year Old Colt (AFLEET ALEX x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x A.P. INDY)
Bred by verona
One phrase we can use when analyzing the career of this Afleet Alex royally bred colt is “close but no cigar”. It is true that he is a stakes winner already, but he has come second twice in two other stakes (including the Grade II Chantilly Lace last time out), and third beaten a neck in another one. But similar to Eurotrash, his SFs have gone way up since his transition to the green stuff. Trainer verona looks for his colt to come out of that case of seconditis and win big his first graded stakes. My opinion is that this horse is a classic distance horse and maybe the mile is a little short for him, but is there is enough pace that can help him, he can win, no question about it.
PP 5
18/1 DASSOUS(KY) ID# 31693
CJ Anderson ( 41 – 4 – 4 – 6 – 10% )
julie
3 Year Old Colt (WOODMAN x SADLER’S WELLS x A.P. INDY)
Bred by julie
We can say that this superbly bred colt out of Woodman has been a little bit of a disappointment, with only one win in nine career lifetime starts, and that was in a very cheap MSW race. In his first race facing Stakes Company, he ran just ok. Trainer julie has changed tactics in the training routine for him, trying to get him to relax a bit more. For the moment, it is very clear that he needs to improve in a big way to contend in this tough graded stakes, but at any instance that pedigree can show.
PP 6
11/1 LA DOLCE VITA(KY) ID# 117326
B Child ( 217 – 30 – 26 – 30 – 14% )
martialis
3 Year Old Colt (KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT x GREY DAWN II)
Bred by martialis
Just as I said when analyzing his last race, La Dolce Vita has shown great affinity to the mile distance. In that last race, surprisingly he went for the lead, fading badly on the later stages. Trainer martialis should change strategy again, telling his jockey B. Child to place him at a nice stalking position and attack from the three eights pole on. That last race, although he finished seventh, his SF was not bad at all, so if he returns to the form before his last effort, this son of Kingmambo can be a nice longshot, at juicy 11-1 odds.
PP 7
11/1 KOO KOO BANANAS(KY) ID# 115690
R Michaels ( 51 – 1 – 5 – 12 – 2% )
maplefarms
3 Year Old Colt (BELONG TO ME x AFLEET x MAJESTIC LIGHT)
Bred by maplefarms
This is an epidemic. This colt out of Belong to Me has had 6 second place finishes in twelve starts, and the last four in a row. Judging from his past performances, I think is safe to say this horse is dying for much more ground to perform at his best. Trainer maplefarms is playing his cards here by taking a cutback in distance with his colt, looking for a way to get out of that seconditis epidemic. He was not fortunate at all on the jockey selection, another reason why I will pass on him for this race.
PP 8
10/1 YESIMALLLITUPAGAIN(JPN) ID# 126766
S Klein ( 27 – 1 – 4 – 3 – 4% )
themainman
3 Year Old Colt (FANTASTIC LIGHT x SEEKING THE GOLD x METFIELD)
Bred by themainman
Ok, what can you say when the only horse in this field with a graded win in his resume is hit with a 10-1 Morning Line? Too much Nyquil for the odds maker? Well, let’s see if the 10-1 fits the glove. It is true that this Fantastic Light offspring won the Grade III Theregoesmyhero Stakes in his last race. However, this was in a yielding turf course, which he will not have this Saturday. Another point against him is a very low percentage jockey, with only a 4% winning percentage. But there are points in his favor. He was improving before his Graded win, and he maintained his improving trend. Trainer themainman takes a cut back in distance with him, which can give him a much more powerful kick at the end. It’s hard to analyze this horse, I recommend putting him in your exotics, but for a winner, I will look elsewhere.
PP 9
15/1 DYNACITY(KY) ID# 119368
R Engel ( 24 – 1 – 3 – 4 – 4% )
kona
3 Year Old Colt (DYNAFORMER x CARSON CITY x POLISH NUMBERS)
Bred by lawyerron
This is another colt who is taking a big step up in class for this race. This Dynaformer colt likes to be in the first flight of his races, and he has won at a 9.5 furlong distance, a furlong and a half more than what they will travel here. But the competition he has been dueling is much softer. In his first stakes try, he was out of the money, in a very dull effort. Trainer kona is bringing him back after a seven week rest, training nicely during the mornings. He is a good colt, but I think he is a little out of his league in this event.
PP 10
10/1 STRAIGHTANDSTRONG(IRE) ID# 122215
S Israel ( 42 – 6 – 1 – 2 – 14% )
ticketman0
3 Year Old Colt (AZAMOUR (IRE) x KING OF KINGS (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN)
Bred by ticketman0
Very good Azamour (IRE) colt who takes his game to the route races after doing reasonably nice in sprint stakes. The fact that trainer ticketman0 is entering him in this race tells us he has seen something in his colt that makes him think he has a good chance in here. This is not the first try for him at a route, and that first try was a rather forgettable one. The stretchout in distance is an interesting angle to study with him, and he can be a good longshot to have in your tickets, if we try to beat the two solid betting choices in here. He looks like a much more mature colt that the one who ran the mile in week 3028.
PP 11
11/1 ON AN ISLAND(KY) ID# 122219
P Hilton ( 19 – 1 – 1 – 0 – 5% )
gradeone
3 Year Old Colt (EMPIRE MAKER x SEATTLE SLEW x FORTY NINER)
Bred by afc2
It certainly looks like this horse is picking at the right time. This colt, out of superb young sire Empire Maker, ran his eyeballs in his first try in graded company, which was his last effort, with a respectable 95 SF. Now trainer afc2 brings him back to the grass, and he looks like a horse that has learned how to rate in a race. The six week layoff given by his trainer was apparently what the doctor ordered; takes a bit of a cut back in distance, he will not be that far of the early leaders and he is my pick to win here, at a very intriguing 11-1 on the board.
PP 12
11/1 MONTERROSSI(IRE) ID# 124929
R Haffner ( 119 – 7 – 9 – 6 – 6% )
fernando
3 Year Old Colt (DUBAWI (IRE) x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR)
Bred by fernando
This colt was doing extremely well just about two months ago, losing by just a length and a half in the Grade III Rantofan Handicap in week 3119. But in his last two races, he has fallen apart completely, especially in the Ray of Pye, in which he was fifth at odds of 9/5. Trainer fernando brings him rather quickly again, and that makes you wonder if he has had enough time to recover from those two poor efforts. This son of Dubawi (IRE) needs to show he is at least close to that form of three races back, s I will pass on him.
PP 13
12/1 SPANISH HARLAN(KY) ID# 122850
P Davis ( 165 – 12 – 29 – 18 – 7% )
fleet1
3 Year Old Colt (HARLAN’S HOLIDAY x CONQUISTADOR CIELO x STORM BIRD)
Bred by fleet1
Pretty similar to Montessori (IRE), this colt out of Harlan’s Holiday was doing nicely two races back, and then hit the wall miserably, both of them in graded competition. Trainer fleet1 insists on keeping him running against this caliber of horses. He draws way on the outside, another factor against him. In summary, he will have to show me he is over those two races before I recommend him.
My Picks: On An Island, Eurotrash, La Dolce Vita.