A race where the favorite is 8/1 and the longest shot on the board is just 15/1 you know is a wide open affair. And that is exactly what you have in the Grade II The Jersey City. Fourteen three year old fillies go for the big prize at downtown New York, in what should be a dandy of a race. Let’s take a closer look at them:
1
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600059220 |
| Owner: |
bullman |
| Breeder : |
bullman |
Foaled in IRE
Yesterday’s Cost : $80/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
954 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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This filly has been running in the Old Hemisphere since May, and now travels to the Big Apple for this commitment. She has been doing very nice over there, winning the Grade III The Chloe and placing in the Grade II Pioneer Boulevard Cup. Maybe she is a notch or two below the best here, but she should be well placed from the starting bell, and with some improvement, she can go wire to wire. But at 8/1, prefer to side with others.
2
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600028124 |
| Owner: |
chicagobulls |
| Breeder : |
chicagobulls |
Foaled in ENG
Yesterday’s Cost : $100/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 1, 9 mo : 2, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
862 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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She is a multiple graded stakes winner and one of the most accomplished fillies in this group. However, those last two races are a cause for deep concern for her trainer chicagobulls, who can’t find a reasonable explanation for such bad efforts. Instructions for the rider for this race is that he needs to position the filly closer to the pace, as she has shown to perform better that way. Let’s see how this strategy plays, I’ll wait and see with her.
3
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| 3 Year OldRoan FillyHorse ID : 11600040798 |
| Owner: |
alysalley |
| Breeder : |
alysalley |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $80/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 5 |
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| CPU Value |
890 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
5 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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Mega turf influence Kitten’s Joy sires this roan filly, already a dual Grade III winner. Coincidentally, both graded wins were at the same nine furlong distance that they will be running on Saturday, so she definitely loves this trip. The number three hole in the gate will allow her to be in a very comfy garden spot from the start, she then will need for spaces to become available for her late run to be effective. She needs to step up somewhat, no question, but at 11/1 it can be worth the risk. Upset potential.
4
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| 3 Year OldChestnut FillyHorse ID : 11600041319 |
| Owner: |
jastables |
| Breeder : |
jastables |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $70/day |
|
| MAGICIAN x EASY GOER x SHARPEN UP |
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R |
W |
P |
S |
$ |
| Career |
11 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
$266,440 |
| Dirt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Turf |
11 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
$266,440 |
| Poly |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Sprint |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
$36,720 |
| Routes |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Off |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 1, 9 mo : 2, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
951 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
3 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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This filly has shown steady and constant improvement all through 2016, winning her first stakes race in April, and then being very competitive in two subsequent graded tries. The only race in which she regressed somewhat is when she climb up the ladder to Grade I company, but that was her first experience in such a level. Then she just missed in the Grade II Lake Georgina, and for this race, she has an additional half a furlong to work with. She needs a contested pace up front, if she gets it, her chances improve dramatically.
5
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| 3 Year OldBrown FillyHorse ID : 11600007423 |
| Owner: |
bantem |
| Breeder : |
bantem |
Foaled in ENG
Yesterday’s Cost : $90/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
968 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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The very obscure sire Charm Spirit sends this filly, which has shown signs of talent, winning a Grade II and a Grade III in a total of six starts this year. The problem I see with this lady is that her best races so far have been when there is some give on the ground, and the forecast for Saturday does not call for rain in New York. However, she is improving with each and every race and we can not deny her a chance.
6
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600035058 |
| Owner: |
bredtasell |
| Breeder : |
bredtasell |
Foaled in AUS
Yesterday’s Cost : $70/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 4 |
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| CPU Value |
972 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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Filly that was doing pretty nicely in listed stakes competition, then her trainer bredtasell sent her in a Grade I adventure in the Equinics, and she just missed porting a 15/1 upset, losing by less than a length. It was certainly her best effort as of yet, but the questions is, can she repeat that kind of race? Or furthermore, can she keep improving? She is one of the co-favorites at 8/1, but her inexperience at this level and the distance of nine furlong really cast a doubt on me. Wait and see approach.
7
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| 3 Year OldRoan FillyHorse ID : 11600049250 |
| Owner: |
ehteam2 |
| Breeder : |
ehteam2 |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $70/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 2, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
897 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
3 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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This girl has only nine lifetime starts, and she has shown she belongs in the lower level graded ranks, already placing the Grade III The Feeling Bad. After that outing, she stepped up to run in the Equinics, faltering badly after being considered with a nice chance to score at 9/1. Still needs to answer if she is good enough to win at the higher graded level, and also needs to show she is recovered from that most recent start. She still has some room for improvement, but I prefer to side with others.
8
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600058293 |
| Owner: |
blankpoin4 |
| Breeder : |
blankpoin4 |
Foaled in JPN
Yesterday’s Cost : $90/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 3, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 3 |
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| CPU Value |
946 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
3 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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Japan’s super horse Deep Impact sires this filly that has shown great affinity for the nine furlong trip that this field will be taking. We do not see much speed signed in, so the instructions from trainer bankpoin4 to his jockey will be to send the filly to or near the lead of the pack, and make anyone that wants to win to try to catch her. She is already a winner in this level and comes back from a nice five week rest. I like her a lot and will be in my Top 3 for this event.
9
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600005803 |
| Owner: |
bizalls5 |
| Breeder : |
bizalls5 |
Foaled in SAF
Yesterday’s Cost : $100/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 1, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 4 |
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| CPU Value |
980 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
7 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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The winner of the Grade I Irish 1000 Guineas coming from way off the pace, she has not been able top replicate that same success in her last two tries, both at the Grade I level. Now she has an additional furlong to work with, something trainer bizalls5 is extremely happy about. The problem I see for her is that we do not see that much speed in this race, so the pace can be slow and not to her liking. One of the four co-favorites at 8/1, she should come flying in the stretch, but the pace factor is preponderant against her.
10
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| 3 Year OldBrown FillyHorse ID : 11600004095 |
| Owner: |
almaarad |
| Breeder : |
witts |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $100/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 4, Yr : 5 |
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| CPU Value |
913 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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Five wins in eight starts is the record for this filly, who broke thru in her most recent outing, a resounding win in the Grade I Equinics race for this group. In that race, she came from the middle of the twenty horse field to lead with half a furlong to go. She is another one who needs to have a contested pace up front for her late run to be more effective. Just as for her last race, she has kept on working lights out and I expect another good showing from her. She remains undefeated at nine furlongs, and will be a tough customer here.
11
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600002197 |
| Owner: |
dancesmartly |
| Breeder : |
dancesmartly |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $70/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 0, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 4 |
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| CPU Value |
800 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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From late 2015 to the beginning of the year, she was able to win three stakes races in a row, and seemed poised to make a good run at this year’s graded races. And that was exactly what her trainer dancesmartly planned and did. However, the results did not came in as expected, as she was soundly beaten in two Grade III tries. Her last race is what has her here, a good second in allowance company, with a very competitive figure. However, she has not proven she belongs in a graded level race so far, and so she will beat me in here.
12
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600048957 |
| Owner: |
mikeramsey10 |
| Breeder : |
mikeramsey10 |
Foaled in IRE
Yesterday’s Cost : $70/day |
|
| AUSTRALIA x GONE WEST x DANZIG |
|
R |
W |
P |
S |
$ |
| Career |
10 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
$205,810 |
| Dirt |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Turf |
10 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
$205,810 |
| Poly |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Sprint |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Routes |
10 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
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| Off |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 0, 6 mo : 0, 9 mo : 2, Yr : 2 |
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| CPU Value |
886 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
2 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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She is maybe the speed of the speed in this bunch, but that number twelve post does not do her any favors. So she most probably will need to sit just off the pace, a style she and her trainer mikeramsey10 do not prefer. She has one stake win to date, a wire to wire to job in the listed Bling Turf Filly Mile in February. When she has gone beyond the mile, she has had some problems in the late stages. With more questions than answers, can not recommend.
13
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600003072 |
| Owner: |
drinkwater |
| Breeder : |
borinquen |
Foaled in KY
Yesterday’s Cost : $60/day |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 2, Yr : 3 |
|
| CPU Value |
884 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
2 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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We finally get to my filly in this event, and I have to say she was a very pleasant surprise in Equinics day, taking home a silver medal by running the race of her life. She has slowly but surely being improving, and although she has not been able to win a stakes race, I honestly feel her best races are in her not too distant future. She will be running in the proverbial garden spot, and if she maintains the pattern she has shown lately, she stands a great chance at upsetting this field, at very generous 14/1 odds. The pick.
14
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| 3 Year OldBay FillyHorse ID : 11600024908 |
| Owner: |
kingscourt14 |
| Breeder : |
kingscourt14 |
Foaled in ENG
Yesterday’s Cost : $80/day |
|
| FRANKEL (GB) x DYNAFORMER x KINGMAMBO |
|
R |
W |
P |
S |
$ |
| Career |
12 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
$272,320 |
| Dirt |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
$52,800 |
| Turf |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
$219,520 |
| Poly |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
| Sprint |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
$25,300 |
| Routes |
10 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
|
| Off |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$0 |
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| Wins Within |
3 mo : 1, 6 mo : 2, 9 mo : 3, Yr : 4 |
|
| CPU Value |
869 |
6mo Tag |
n/a |
| NonMCOS |
4 |
MinClmTag |
n/a |
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Super horse and undefeated champion Frankel is the sire of this filly, which was bred to love the turf and run all day. In her next to last race, she won her third lifetime stakes race and her first graded score, by taking the Grade III The Feeling Bad in Kentucky. She then went to the Equinics and was a disappointment, but that race was her first in a two month span. Maybe she needed that race and now we will see the real Reign of Queens this Saturday. Anyway, if we can forgive her for that most recent effort, her form is as good as any of the best in here. Upset chance.
Picks:
#13 Parranda
#8 Raye
#10 Stars Might Shine
Very nice job! Good luck with your filly.
Thanks for the write up! Good luck to all!