Mississippi’s Crafty Dancer Stakes
Overview: The “Crafty Dancer Memorial” Stake, a 7 1/2 furlong event, contested over a Mississippi turf course that has been rated “good” due to heavy rains earlier in the week, hasn’t deterred a quality field of nine colts and horses featuring LAFLY’s Flyphard’s Event as 9/5 favorite and LIP’s Real Deal Squeal as the 5/2 second choice. Between them, Flyphard’s Event and Real Deal Squeal have amassed over 2,500,000 in earnings and a whopping ( 22 ) Stakes victories between them.
The field:
PP-01 KNICK KNACK ( 29/1 ) Trainer BOOKWORM … Jockey E. Witter ( .091 )
Class Rating: 8.35 Speed Rating: .517
Training: ( 4 ) weeks since last race Allow ( 4th )
Overview: Still eligible for Allowance nw/2x conditions makes it very unlikely that Knick Knack will be able to take what would amount to a quantum leap up the class ladder here. Also he’s another that does his best work late in the stretch, looks fit and ready and should use this race as a nice tuneup to begin his move up the Allowance Condition rung.
PP-02 FLYPHARD’S EVENT ( 9/5 ) Trainer LAFLY … Jockey N. Bagel ( .114 )
Class Rating: 5.43 Speed Rating: .802
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race 70,000 Stake ( 1st )
Overview: It’s really hard to pick against this “outstanding” four year old by Event Of The Year. Flyphard’s event has ( 13 ) Stake wins in his ( 33 ) race career and has been a model of consistency, however it looks like trainer Lafly is rolling the dice bringing Flyphard’s Event back after only ( 2 ) weeks rest. He’s going to have to chase Ed’s Fergulch LC early and the question is will he have enough left the last ( 2 ) furlongs. Prediction ( 4th )
PP-03 POLITICAL STORM ( 7/1 ) Trainer IANT … Jockey B. Orazio ( .170 )
Class Rating: 5.78 Speed Rating: .273
Training: ( 8 ) weeks since last race 75,000 Stake ( 9th )
Overview: I would like Political Storm’s chances a lot better if there were a bit more early speed here, as it stands he’s going have to rally late and pass a lone speed and two very classy stalkers to win the Crafty Dancer and I really think that’s too tall an order. However I do like this horses chances off the eight week layoff of coming in fresh and picking off any of the front runners that fades, so I like his chances of getting a nice slice of this purse. Prediction ( 3rd )
PP-04 METAL DETECTOR II ( 9/2 ) Trainer OZSTEVE … Jockey D. Prentice ( .122 )
Class Rating: 5.78 Speed Rating: .083
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race 50,000 Stake ( 4th )
Overview: Two things prevent me from selecting Ozsteve’s Metal Detector II to grab a slice of this purse, first he lacks any real early speed so he will more than likely trail the entire field early and looking over his past performances it looks like he needs another furlong to hit his best stride, also he’s packed a grueling six races into the last twelve weeks of racing and that’s gotta take a toll. A model of consistency, if Metal Detector II finishes 3rd or 4th it wouldn’t totally surprise me, I just think he needs a little freshening
Rest.
PP-05 ED’S FERGULCH LC ( 14/1 ) Trainer BESTEDS … Jockey P. Bower ( .103 )
Class Rating: 7.27 Speed Rating: 1.076
Training: ( 5 ) weeks since last race 50,000 Stake ( 9th )
Overview: Longshot with these as this field is probably the best this four year old son of Ferdinand has ever faced. However there’s several things in his favor to indicate he may run the race of his career. First he’s the fastest gate breaker in this field and should have the early lead, whether he can withstand the pressure remains to be seen, but he is well-rested and it looks as if trainer Besteds has spotted him pretty well here. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he hangs tough on Saturday. Prediction: ( 2nd )
PP-06 RADICAL DUDE ( 27/1 ) Trainer AROUSET …
Class Rating: 7.78 Speed Rating: .379
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race Allowance ( 3rd )
Overview: Last win was vs. 2,500 claimers, hasn’t run in a stake since week 2321 and is running in his 5th race in seven weeks, seems like a recipe for disaster. Radical Dude did make a nice move in an Allowance here in
PP-07 SINO RED STORM ( 17/1 ) Trainer SPEED … Jockey F. Oates ( .096 )
Class Rating: 7.60 Speed Rating: .150
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race Allowance ( 4th )
Overview: Likes to rally late and has ( 12 ) finishes in the money in ( 19 ) starts, makes Sino Red Storm a tough horse to rule out, however the ( 4 ) year colt out of Crowning Storm hasn’t fared well in any of his three Stakes tries so far in his career, and there’s no reason to believe he will in this tough crowd. Looks like a very useful Allowance/High Priced Claimer.
PP-08 THE LAWNMOWER MAN ( 6/1 ) Trainer DEVILSCASA … Jockey B. Oliver ( .100 )
Class Rating: 5.65 Speed Rating: .788
Training: ( 2 ) weeks since last race 70,000 Stake ( 6th )
Overview: Under different circumstances I would probably like Devilscasa’s The Lawnmower Man in this race, he should be able to settle in 3rd or 4th and track the early speed and he also fits the conditions nicely with the 3rd best class rating, so he’s certainly capable of winning with these. However the Crafty Dancer will be The Lawnmower Man ‘s fifthrace in nine weeks and that is an awfully tough schedule to keep sharp, so I’m going to pass on Lawnmower Man here.
PP-09 REAL DEAL SQUEAL ( 5/2 ) Trainer LIP … Jockey F. Power ( .164 )
Class Rating: 5.10 Speed Rating: .611
Training: ( 4 ) weeks since last race Allowance ( 1st )
Overview: Looks like the race really sets up well for this five year old veteran, he’s the class of the field and the overall lack of real speed in this field should allow Real Deal to sit in the Garden Spot 3rd – 5th early tracking the leaders where he seems to do his best work. I also like the fact that trainer Lip used an allowance to tune Real Deal up for this and the four week spacing should find the multiple Stakes winner at his peak. Prediction ( 1st ).
Race Preview: They’re going to have to catch Ed’s Fergulch LC, if he can control the pace and keep Flyphard’s Event behind through ( 4 ) furlongs (no easy feat), he’ll be tough to beat, however I still think when the smoke clears Real Squeal Deal will have an ideal trip and have enough class to overhaul Ed’s Fergulch or Flyphard’s Event.
Keys to Class Rating: The lower the number the better the CLASS rating.
Keys to Speed Rating: The higher the number the better the “EARLY” speed.