Main tracker You’re A Towel meets El Cajon, Buda For A Day on Bluegrass turf
Kentucky– We got a dandy here at the Bluegrass Racetrack with a hot main tracker testing her legs for the first time over the turf course. Highly regarded Louisiana Oaks(G2) winner You’re A Towel (3/1) is that hot main tracker and she battles a very competitive field in the Grade 3 $150,000 Appalooza Stakes.
Broadside(G3) victoress Buda For A Day and Silver Spoon(G2) heroine Mendela lead the grass specialists. They’re joined by the very interesting El Cajon who has been pretty good so far sprinting on the green stuff. Additionally, a wide variety of talented starlets challenge for the glory and stakes points too. Let’s take a look at the field as we test one Monster (Sophomore Turf Filly!) Mile………..
You’re A Star (Of Two Surfaces?)
Most of the time, a handicapper can be forgiven for bypassing a debuter over the surface. Especially a horse like You’re A Towel(KY) (3/1) who has been absolutely superb this season over the main track. Gotta commend trainer Watershed for splendid perseverance — You’re A Towel was a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime going into the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies. She had done everything asked of her, boldly winning the Frickazee (G1) and KY Horsemen Debutante(G1). Unfortunately, the closer suffered from traffic woes and was perhaps a bit short on seasoning in the end. You’re A Towel managed to only pass tiring horses, finishing 6th in the BB. OK effort, but had to be crushing for her trainer.
The Breeders Bowl’s stage of course was Kentucky and the filly returns to the scene of the crime here Saturday. It’s just totally commendable how she recovered after the BB flop — she was in the Movieland Starlet’s photo finish a few weeks later and now is a perfect 2-for-2 this year with scores in the Los Vinegrette and Louisiana Oaks, both Grade 2 main track sizzlers. ‘Towel won the latter 8.5f race with a gorgeous 101 SP# and most definitely counts amongst the favorites for the Bluegrass Oaks five weeks from Saturday.
So why enter her on the grass? A few things:
1) In the Sim’s old days, the turf-to-dirt switcheroo as a final prep for a premier race was highly fashionable. It was a normal thing for a big main tracker to jog around the turf course prior to throwing what was hoped to be a huge SP# victory when moved back to the dirt surface. Could be that Watershed’s reaching back into the Sim’s past here, following that training strategy. It looks strange nowadays though — we just don’t see the tactic much anymore at this level due to the wear & tear implementation (added to the game in ’04 or late ’03 I believe). Folks fear wear & tear in their big stars. 🙂
2) Her pedigree! Elusive Quality x Saint Ballado x Mill Reef. Hey, Smarty Jones won on the turf before the dirt, right? The Sim’s pretty forgiving, allowing one misplaced start. It won’t ruin her form hopefully. IMO, it’s a bit of gamble though. However, she *does* have the bloodlines for this green stuff.
3) Stamina questions. Elusive Quality of course set the World Record over a mile. I see enough stamina in ‘Towel’s damside to get 9f though.
4) Keep options open. Maybe Watershed would like to “play the field” that first Saturday in May. A win here would assure ‘Towel entry into the Guineas (even if she loses, she’d still probably draw in Ranked #20).
Your guess is as good as mine! Honest speed up front here should give You’re A Towel something to run at. We’ll see what happens.
Buda Neighs, “Let’s Win These Miler Days!”
Trainer Vicki probably has Buda For A Day(KY)‘s (9/1) stamina questions all wrapped up. A pair of 9f turf debacles sandwiched alongside gorgeous 8f victories (Broadside(G3) this season and the High Flyer(G1) versus colts nevertheless last year!) has to draw some conclusions. Her pedigree: Dayjur x Storm Cat x Sadler’s Wells. So, yeah, this gal fits the Monster Mare Miler bill. Personally, I love her 2-for-2 record around one-turn turf according to that pedigree and think Vicki should keep Buda For A Day’s options open down the road!
Buda For A Day enters here on six weeks rest. She should be around You’re A Towel at the back of the pack and if the former doesn’t fire, then this closer is your “one to watch.” Positively blossoming starlet and now that she has those stamina questions out of the way, time to get down to Miler business. I like her a lot in this spot.
Quite The Fella, Mendela
Like Buda For A Day, Mendela(IRE) (6/1) also shortens up to her graded-winning distance. Can’t fault trainer bossross for testing Mendela over 9.5f LTO (she floundered down the lane in a short field which she should’ve probably outclassed). With Dubai Millenium as damsire, it was worth a shot to see if Mendela could stay some ground and possibly start later on in April’s Aussie Oaks races. Of course, this filly won the Silver Spoon Juvenile(G2) last December. That flat mile race produces some good late-blooming talent and Mendela rode a 3 listed stakes win streak marvelously into the victory.
Hmm… I’d caution bossross to consider the effects of the two weeks between the Panhandle Oaks(G3) and Triangular Star(G3). Mendela finished up solidly in those events, taking 3rd both times with 90+ SP#s. Love to see that solid SP# progression. She had 5 weeks rest afterwards, but maybe she needed 6 or even 8 weeks. After all, it was January and February for a 3yo filly. She races back here on 4 weeks rest — is her trainer pushing her too fast and that’s why she konked out in the 9.5f test LTO? Interesting. Lots of questions with this one. Talented stalker must be at her best.
La Bonita’s (Two-Turns?) Dolce Vita
Call me a dumb ‘capper, but I think here’s your winner. Dagrims’ El Cajon(IRE) (4/1) is a very solid Graded-placed turf sprinter and winner of a few overniters. She makes her two-turns debut Saturday.
Her pedigree: El Prado x Kris S. x Bold Ruler. You’d think at least short routes, right? But if you look carefully at her PPs, she’s lost both of her recent 7f outings which was probably enough for trainer dagrims (Barndog? 🙂 ) to suspect her stamina. Additionally, she won her sprint race LTO with a fading 1/2-length lead. El Cajon is a stalker or sometimes pacesetter. Her 90+ SP#s this season (including a runner up in the Booty Call(G3-6fT) versus colts) is quite impressive and on target for this point in her young career. Hmmm… I think it’s quite possible she can get the mile. Granted, there are warning signs to the negative, but gotta try this filly. Tough spot for the experiment, but I’ve got a good feeling about this one.
Oh, For Future Guineas Glory
Well, here’s a modest pedigree with Full Mandate x Future Storm x Rambo Dancer! HA! How refreshing. 🙂 Full Future(FL) (8/1) checks in for trainer Larkin and she’s a spunky li’l thing. The filly was average last season over the main track but she managed to break her maiden classily in her 2nd career start.
2007 though signaled a switch to the green stuff and Full Future has taken to it like a jackrabbit. The filly bagged a miler ALW and a 8.5f Alabama overniter in fine pacesetters’ fashion. The latter was a 2-length laugher and resulted in her first 90+ SP#. Unfortunately, she got caught late in another listed stakes afterwards, gamely finishing 2nd with the final time 1:36 flat. Pretty swift final time there. Full Futre joins AP Infinity, Rock The Kasbah, Bernabeau, and possibly El Cajon for frontrunner honors. Maybe a bit in over her head when measured against these bluebloods. But, hey, she’s spoiling for a good fight. Not without a shot for all the marbles.
DEB-sperately Seeking Stakes Points
Here’s my dark horse. Debut Deb(KY) (8/1) brings a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime turf record to the table. The Grand Slam x Strike The Gold x Royal Academy gal is equally as good on the main track, stakes-laced over a lfat mile a couple times. The late midpacker rallied splendidly LTO for a 92 SP# score over 7f in listed company.
Granted, Debut Deb is terribly green at only 6 starts, but she does bring a couple 90+ SP#s and proven ability over a mile. Don’t know if she’s ready for these big girls. Even if she manages a win here, I don’t know if she’ll drastically improve her #497 Turf Classic ranking enough to draw into the Guineas. Possible though. Still learning the ropes. One to keep an eye on as a possible sleeper for trainer Groucho.
Catch That Newmarket Fever
A Tapit daughter with a rather grassy female family checks in from post 10. Catch Twenty Too(KY) (8/1) finished ahead of Mendela in January’s Panhandle Oaks(G3) — the stalker just missed the win by a 1/4-length. It was just her 2nd career start over the lawn — Catch Twenty Too was bit average over the main track last season, but close out her ’06 campaign with a fine 2nd at the listed stakes level (her first start over the grass).
Wow, this filly is better than her odds indicate. You can kind of toss out her effort versus colts LTO since she got stuck on the lead. Her first two starts on the grass resulted in 90 SP#s — a great leap up from her numbers over the main track. Some speed in this group, but she’s passed the class test already. Interesting outsider. Good jockey aboard too. One to keep in your exotics. Races for willyam12.
A Nifty Affinity
Blueblooded A.P. Infinity(KY) (9/1) joins the pacesetters fray. She’s by AP Indy and brings a 3-for-6 lifetime turf record to the starting gate. Since switching from the main track, she’s been solid if you toss out the 11f experiment debacle LTO. Even raced against colts a couple times.
Unfortunately, stupor4’s AP Infinity has to grow up fast here. She must break through the 90 SP# barrier at long last. Still, she’s perfect over a flat mile and perhaps would rather have a flat mile instead of 9f, 9.5f. The longer routes might’ve naturally dipped her SP#s. We’ll see what happens, but has a lot to prove. Still a lot of learning and experiementing ahead for this filly. Tough spot.
Back On The Right Track (Uh Huh!)
Major inbreeding to Northern Dancer with War Chant x Nijinsky II x Nureyev. Stakes-placed Sidetrack(KY) (18/1) pretty average so far over the lawn. Quite a reach here since the closer has barely broken out of the 70 SP# ranks recently. Comes out of a dirt debacle two weeks ago. Sometimes that wakes them up. Other times, they’re also-ran. Looks outclassed in this group. Expensive homebred, but you still need to be patient. Bred to go long. Races for blackswan.
Rock The Router Clock
Looks like the Supers check in with thier gradeone stable. They bring a fancy bred Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) daughter named Rock The Kasbah(IRE) (19/1). The filly joins the frontrunner group. The speedster won her first four starts easy peasy enough last season (though versus short fields and with slow SP#s). Unfortunately, the fily flopped big time when stepped up to Mendela’s Silver Spoon Juvenile(G2).
Picked up the beat LTO with a runner-up finish around 7.5 panels. Solid 92 SP# too. Worth a shot, but maybe the Supers are just trying to push her and her pedigree into the Guineas starting gate. IMO, the next logical step would’ve been two-turns in a listed event or ALW to see if the Grade 2 race last year was just a rotten egg. Doubtful but maybe minor share.
Hey, Beau, Where’s The Dough?
Daveyboy’s Bernabeau(IRE) (33/1) is our 2nd runner sired by Alberto Giacometti(IRE) (he also sired Mendela). Bernabeau has a weaker female family though. The filly earned some big BP last year for her trainer in a GSR residency series. The speedster was stakes-placed in open company too. Bernabeau showed the way early on in the Panhandle Oaks(G3), but tired well enough to finish 6th of 11. Her speed figures just don’t compare with the faves at this point. Reaching for minor share at best. Speedster’s outside post doesn’t help.
Snowchief’s Picks:
I have a funny feeling that El Cajon will do well stretching out in this spot…. but she’s an iffy selection.
I like Debut Deb as my dark horse, though she’s green.
Have questions about Mendela’s fitness, but she can win this easily if I’m overreacting.
Full Future is a nice little filly but she might get caught in a speed duel. Ditto for Catch Twenty Too — play her across the board since she has back class.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see You’re A Towel in the winer’s circle with her pedigree, but, since there’s no lawn record with her to go on, flip a coin.
If you want a safe bet, then select Buda For A Day from off pace — she’s in the right place, right time, that sort of thing — LOL.
Ha! So many great candidates! Better wheel some of these horses:
Win: Buda For a Day or El Cajon
Place: Buda For a Day or El Cajon
Show: Debut Deb, Catch Twenty Too, or Mendela
Longshot for Win: Debut Deb
Good luck to all!