The G-3 Sand Castle Godolfin Mile
Racing’s richest day has understandably lured a number of horses to this desert oasis and is sure to provide race fans with a number of contentious race and intriguing storylines. This year’s rendition of the G-3 Sand Castle Godolfin Mile is sure to fit that description. Let’s take a look at the field from the rail out.
1 Cat of the Tail (graywolf3) – Edging closer and closer to the half century mark for career starts, but he’s managed to fire a triple-digit speed figure in his last three — something he hadn’t done at any point in his career until now. Capable of a big effort every once in a blue moon and does come into this off a gritty win in last at 16-1, but the negatives are severe — he hasn’t hit the board in a graded race in nearly two years and no matter how solid his last was, an encore performance probably doesn’t get him on the board this week. Hard to imagine he finds the necessary improvement to get him to the winner’s circle in his forty-ninth trip to the starting gate.
2 Disco Ball (beefcake2) – Runner-up to the rail horse in last and having already dissected that one’s chances, need I say anything about this one’s? One-time claimer really just doesn’t have the look of a graded-stakes horse. He’s three for four in allowance company (only off the board finish at a distance he probably didn’t like) this year and zero for four in stakes tries — does that really sound like the kind of horse that needs to step up to graded company? With just twenty starts, I wouldn’t mind having him in my barn… to win allowance races.
3 Night Bird (b4rca) – Curious spot for a horse that just got his head handed to him in the cheapest of allowance races last out and really can’t find any reason to think he can surprise this week. Best efforts (as well as lone triple-digit speed figure) have come on off-tracks, but the odds of finding a rain cloud in
4 Prince Bryan (bryanj79) – Longest shot on the board goes from an allowance NW2L win to G-3 stakes try in just his eighth start and I really think he would have benefited from some stakes experience before trying these beasts. Event of the Year four-year old is a talented horse who probably has some nice races ahead of him, but he’s yielding a ton of experience and really just isn’t yet talented enough for these. Don’t think this race will be his coming out party…
5 Onemorefortheroad (hornfrog3) – Should look better this week with the cut back in distance, but he’s yet another who’s lacking in graded stakes success — as in “yet to hit the board in a graded stakes race.” Stone-cold closer’s last win came against stakes types, but it also came about five months ago. Still looking for a real contender…
6 Armed and Ready (zewango2) – Ask an ye’ shall receive — this guy is a contender and he plays a simple game — try and run you into the ground and hope he outlasts you. Feast or famine type absolutely needs the lead to win — if he faces any resistance for the lead early, he’ll fold like a house of cards and there are a few in here (Dime A Dozen, Burning Flag to name two) who will make wrestling the early lead difficult. Couple that with the fact that the horse to his inside, Onemorefortheroad, has topped him before and you have a very, very vulnerable co-favorite.
7 Dime A Dozen (freedominc) – Oldest horse in the field has won four in a row, but the bulk of those victories came in restricted allowance races. As mentioned he has some speed, but probably isn’t as fast as Armed and Ready and, long story short, he’s facing far tougher than he’s faced in his previous four. Might give backers a brief thrill early, but can’t see him stalking the horse to his inside and holding off the closers…
8 Rhibus (gradetwo) – Owner hasn’t been shy about sending him to the wolves and he was once a wolf himself — player on the Triple Crown trail last year after winning the Florida Derby and that’s just one of five graded stakes wins on his resume. This year hasn’t been real kind to him though and his latest — a second place finish as a monster favorite in a four horse field — really just illustrates how far he’s come since his glory days of wine and cheese. Stands a shot at an on-the-board finish, though I don’t believe a mile is his ideal distance…
9 Festive Fifty (stormcat55) – Two sharp sprint outings give him a nice foundation for this and the stretch out to a mile won’t hurt this son of Sadler’s Wells one bit. Deep closer hasn’t fared well in graded stakes tries, but he has won more than half his starts on dirt and seems to be sitting on a big race. Think he has a shot at all the marbles this week…
10 Burning Flag (lenny3) – Track’s top jockey takes the call on royally-bred son of Forty Niner who is also another contender (as if any horse sent out by the stakes king could possibly be considered a non-contender) and he’s a threat in any field with his blazing speed. Only fifteen starts on his docket suggests we haven’t seen his best yet, but don’t think this will be easy for him either. Probably needs an uncontested lead to get his picture taken and, as noted, that probably won’t be the case this week… still a contender for a top-three finish though…
11 Sadfly’s Bingo (onfly) – Second son of Sadler’s Wells in the field and, frankly, this one just isn’t as talented as the first one. He won three in a row during the magical summer of 2005, but he’s only found the winner’s circle once since then. Puts up some big figures on occasion, but seems to have an aversion to passing horses in the lane and that’s not the kind of aversion you want to bring to a G-3 party.
12 Depravity (funster) – The other co-favorite and this one may be last of them all early, but is sure to be moving like a locomotive once they hit the stretch. He’s tasted some graded stakes success more recently than many of these with his bridesmaid finish in the G-2 Orangeton Handicap at this distance back in January. Deep closers such as this often need a little luck working through traffic and running down all the speed though and, while he stands an excellent shot at hitting the board, he might just be unlucky enough to finish second again this week…
13 Tom Boonen (bobmarley) – Son of little known sire Hadif closed out 2006 with a pair of nice wins, but finds himself still looking for his first win of 2007. At times, he’s shown a nice stalking style that would fit well in a field of stone-cold closers and one-dimensional speedsters, but it remains to be seen what tactics his connections will employ this week. Might open some eyes this week with a third or fourth place finish…
14 Tiger Raider (glennspeck) – Most of these haven’t won a graded stakes race, but this guy hasn’t even tried a graded stakes race. Really seems to have lost some of the blazing speed he showed in the fall and he’s wired the field in all four of his wins, so it seems safe to suspect he needs the lead to fare well in here — can’t imagine he can outrun Burning Flag though, especially from this wide post…