Waki Notion leads Sand Castle Distaff(G3) parade
Dubai– Sand Castle Festival day always provides plenty of glamour and starpower. Between Horseshoe Bay, Solar Song, Ermington Pegusus, Seeking Sal and more — take your pick — the day shall be smokin’ hot with Breeders Bowl fever.
Such fantastic racing ahead Saturday and the undercard does not disappoint either. We have a full field ready to tackle 10 mighty main track furlongs in the Grade 3 $250,000 Sand Castle Distaff. And the field is led by a grand ol’ racemare starlet in Waki Notion, winner of the First State Distaff(G1) last season. She loves this distance, but so do her challengers in this competitive contest………
The Faves
3/1 – Waki Notion (looney1)
At six years young, Waki Notion ain’t slowing down by a longshot. The daughter of Miswaki remains at the top of her game through 33 lifetime starts. Waki Notion put together a splendid 2006 season. She won the celebrated First State Distaff(G1) and Girls Cap(G3) both over 10f as well as the very fast Rose Garden(G3) over 9f. The come-from-the-clouds closer missed the board though on BB day. Still, she marched her earnings up over the $2-million barrier, pretty elite company for this wonderful racemare.
Currently ranked #19 in the division, Waki Notion made her ’07 debut a little over a month ago in an ideal spot: the Help Mikes Fallen & Can’t Get Up(G2) over her preferred 10f course. After nine weeks rest, the mare needed a good gallop and she rallied well to finish 4th with an 100 SP#. Had to be a satisfactory debut for trainer Looney. Waki Notion should be razor sharp this time around and figures to get a some longshot pace up front to run at. Very classy runner with solid speed figs. She’s in a perfect spot — not too tough competition but a few good challengers who are close to her level though. Excellent jockey aboard. The one to beat and worthy favorite.
5/1 – Eurojet (seacadet)
Time for Eurojet to finally live up to her breeding. The Gone West x Seattle Slew x Buckpasser 4yo filly comes in here rather experienced with 20 lifetime start. However, she only presents 4 lifetime route attempts, having stayed in the sprinters ranks for most of her career. The filly wasn’t a slouch last season around one-turn posting some good numbers, but not graded level stuff. But I guess trainer Seacadet said enough is enough when the filly lost an ALW NW2n in January — the stalker just couldn’t find the winner’s circle.
Instead, Seacadet boldly entered Eurojet two weeks later in a miler overnite stakes. The filly broke sharp as a tack, battling it out on the lead to win by three-parts of a length. Seacadet had to be jumping over the 105 SP#. Eurojet again tested a mile a month later, rallying to pick up a 3rd-place cheque at the stakes level. Could she indeed by a classic distance filly all along? Eurojet possesses plenty of stamina in her female family. Quite a spot still for an experiment. Oddsmakers like her, but railbirds might think twice about her 14-post position draw. We’ll see if she enjoys the distance.
In The Wings
7/1 – Black Wood Nymph (ozzy)
Rbokie brings his feisty Black Minnaloushe mare, Black Wood Nymph. The 6yo darling deserves lower odds, because she’s in a great spot Saturday. The veteran of 38 starts brings plenty of back-class with over $700k in lifetime earnings. She was a Grade 2 winner in the King Classic last season over 9.5f and recently won two 10f listed stakes events with 104 & 103 SP#s respectively.
This reporter received a heads-up from Rbokie about Black Wood Nymph and top Dubai jockey H Harzheim. The duo make quite a combo, hooking up recently here at Dubai and even won last season too over 10.5f. Ready to menace the pace, Black Wood Nymph and Harzheim are on a mission from the 12-hole. They need racing postion and should get it too since there’s mostly longshot speed in this group. Currently ranked #15 (higher than Waki Notion!), Black Wood Nymph is in a great spot and really looks good on paper to outlast a flying Waki Notion. Could this be the grand ol’ dame’s swan song and fitting highlight to a wonderful career? Great shot if she’s at her best.
7/1 – Chopping Hill (meguire5th)
Third in the Help Mikes Fallen & Can’t Get Up(G2), Chopping Hill finished a couple lengths the better of Waki Notion. Meguire’s experienced Woodman 5yo rallied from midpack in that 10f event, scoring a bounce-back 102 SP#. It was a solid effort for Chopping Hill — she pretty much specializes in 9.5f-10f and really gives her all, earning many a cheque.
Chopping Hill for the most part enjoys midpack gamesmanship. Currently ranked #34, the mare is another lover of this distance and her effort LTO signals fitness. Saturday wil be Chopping Hill’s 3rd trip to the post in 2007. Very honest mare who gives her all even if she doesn’t always bring home the lioness’ share. Well spotted again with top jockey S L Ledwith. The Ledwith/Harzheim rivalry will be in full force — it’s really hard to seperate Chopping Hill from Black Wood Nymph and Waki Notion at this moment for that matter (though the latter is far more accomplished lifetime). Five weeks rest like Waki Notion. It’s gonna be a showdown. Serious contender for the win.
7/1 – Coon’s Dog(IRE) (tigereyes)
Coon’s Dog keeps on plugging away at purse prizes. The 6yo racemare heads to the post Saturday for the 56th time. She’s by Theatrical out of a Gone West mare, but that royal breeding hasn’t tempted trainer Tigereyes.
Coon’s Dog just wants to keep on running and she can still do so too. She’s won 4 of her last 6 and all pretty much over 10f at the listed stakes level. The closer deserves consideration despite her graded level inexperience. Coon’s Dog posted 101 & 102 SP#s respectively in her recent black type victories. Much more difficult competition this time around, but if you like your horses in form and rarin’ to go, then give Coon’s Dog a second look. IMO, her speed figures place her more in minor money running here. And you gotta wonder if she has a big number left after 55 starts. Needs the faves to flop. Still, minor share could be in the works and that would be a victory in itself for Coon’s Dog at this point of her career.
8/1 – Carbow Quest (viperthree)
Carbon Quest shows the way Saturday as a true blue speedster. The daughter of Mano’s favorite ol’ warhorse Green Bow (he was a star on the graded Turf Long circuit a couple years back) pocketed an honest listed level win recently over this distance. Prior to that, she very much appreciated the return to the ALW ranks, bagging satisfying victories in shorter routes.
Carbow Quest has blossomed since stretching out. This might be a reach for her at this point, but there’s not a lot of solid speed in this group. you could very well imagine the 4yo filly all alone on the line for a good while. Whther or not she’ll hang aournd afterwards, well, that’s up to Carbow Quest. I agree that yo have to try her at this level at some point. Looks a little rushed, but, again, this is not a tremendously top-to-bottom deep field, so she might be in for a share. One to keep an eye on. Outsider.
10/1 – Erreka (triska)
Storm Cat-sired 4yo filly boasts stamin-laden female family with Theatrical x Caerleon. And Erreka can win at 10f too — she bagged a short field listed stakes LTO and scored a 105 SP# victory last season. Pretty much a stalker, but can shift gears on the lead if necessary. Oddsmakers were correct in her morning line — she’s predminantly stayed in marathons without success of late and seems to prefer shorter classic routes. Her 90-ish speed figures though don’t really indicate graded level.
Still, Erreka is not without a chance at the board. If she can rally from midpack or so and not far, far back — then she might have a chance for some dough. In her 25th trip to the post, kind of a litmus test entry to see if she can handle the level. Slim chance, but the door is slightly cracked open. Have you ever tested her over 9f-10f turf?
The Longshots
17/1 – Purity Control (buffy6)
Another Sadler’s Wells 4yo filly blossoming of late. This gal paid her dues seemingly forever last season in the ALW ranks, winning 3 of 12 starts up until her ’07 debut.
Purity Control wasted no time this season, bagging her NW4L and NW4x right off the bat. The latter was a very nice 101 SP# 10f score. Additionally, she beat up a short field back type event LTO as picture perfect as can be, rallying from off pace to win well in hand. Should run well here from about off pace or midpack. Would like to see another listed score with 100+SP# before tackling this level. If the faves have off days, then Purity Control has an outside shot for all the marbles. Not to be discounted. Must prove that she belongs though. Good up-and-comer. Has a chance.
17/1 – Errtu (bigiron)
Now here’s your dark horse longshot with a heckuva chance. Errtu finished runnerup in the Help Mikes Fallen & Can’t Get Up(G2). She ran a 103 SP# in her best race so far from 18 starts. The 4yo daughter of Gold Legend took her darn ol’ time breakng her mainde — she went to the post 13 times before finally braking her maiden over 9.5f. It was only second start over the main track — wow.
Errtu proceeded to add two straight ALWs at 9f and 9f after her MSW score. She netered the black type level in her ’07 debut over 10.5f, rallying to pick up the runnerup prize. Solid filly — too bad she spent so long over the grass. Still green — we’ll see if she bounces after the LTO effort. Sometimes they do, but special ones race forward. Decent jockey in the irons helps. Stalker-style tactics would suit this group. Dark horse. One to watch.
17/1 – Across The Sunrise (lenny8)
It just wouldn’t be a grade without an entry from the Lennmeister Empire. A royally bred Sadler’s Wells x Alydar x Bold Ruler from Lenny too. Hmm… I’m writing this offline, so can’t know for sure but Lenny might’ve claimed this one since Across The Sunrise ran in Starter ALWs last season. I don’t think lowclaimer is stable is one of Lenny’s either. Ummm, I want to say that lowclaimer stable is Roys! Ha! Not sure though. 🙂
See, I start out rippin’ on poor Lenny and have to eat my hat. LOL!
Lenny got this filly winning turf Starters last season and recently placed her back on the dirt. Across The Sunrise proceeded to bag 2 of 3 dirt starts including a 10f stakes. Don’t let the fun threads on the message board fool ya — this guy’s a great player (that female family screams dirt and begs two-turns). Granted, Across The Sunrise is still eligible for a NW3x and needs to better her 101 SP# mark for a victoriy here. Not so bad a shot though — look for some minor money or the closer might surpise on the board from about midpack. Interesting but untested at this class level. Doubtful she’ll be good enough to win.
18/1 – Hawkfly’s Bridle(IRE) (bombfly)
Hawk Wing(IRE) daughter might have a chance for a minor share. The 4yo filly interestingly shortens up a couple furlongs — she really didn’t want any part of 12f listed level stakes recently. If you go back in her PPs a ways, you’ll find a score over 10.5f & 11f late last season. They both were promising rallies from off pace. ‘Hawkfly did enter over 11f LTO and picked up a little ground to finish 4th. Perhaps she didn’t have much pace to run at.
Possible outsider for a piece of it. She’d need to put it all toghether in a hurry for the winer’s circle though. Still this will be her 23rd start and she looks for her 8th victory. Interesting dark horse if she can overcome lousy jockey. Not without a slight chance.
23/1 – Bridled In Dubai (badkarma)
Lightly raced Essence of Dubai 5yo mare guns for the lead. Her sopeed figures unfortunately aren’t all that great of late, but you can toss out the pair of off track debacles. If you do so, then you’ll see that she hangs on for minor shares at the listed level after showing the way early on. Makes just her 17th career call to the post. Comes in her after a short breather. Frankly, there’s not a heap of solid pace here, so it’s possible she can hag on for a cheque if some of the faves flop. Other than that, she doesn’t have much of a prayer.
41/1 – Violent Storm (slammin)
71st career start for the daughter of Illinois Storm. She continues to race also-ran in these grades, grossly misplaced. Find more marathon ALWs for her and earn BP.
99/1 – Miesque’s Nereid (nudiebar23)
Miesque’s Son daughter is a former $20k claimer. She’s far outclassed with little ball speed figures and has zero chance. Could chase the speed for a spell, but that’s that.
Snowchief’s Picks:
Carbow Quest likely leads the way out of the gate with Black Wood Nymph, Eurojet, Bridled In Dubai, Miesque’s Nerid in tow.
Errtu, Erreka, Chopping Hill, Purity Control, Violent Storm make up the midpack.
Across The Sunrise, Waki Notion, Coon’s Dog, Hawkfly’s Bridle trail the field from downtown.
Not a lot of great speed here, so that’s why I like Black Wood Nymph a lot. Ditto for Choppping Hill from midpack — she should run better than her last. Eurojet is a wildcard over this distance. Dark horses include Across The Sunrise, Errtu, Hawkfly’s Bridle, and Purity Control. This might be too difficult for Carbow Quest to go wire to wire. Coon’s Dog need big speed figure — gotta wonder when she’ll hit the wall at 55 starts.
But I’m gonna go with class and chalk here in Waki Notion. I think she’ll be able to overcome the little pace that there is. Black Wood Nymph hangs on for second over Chopping Hill. Toss in Purity Control and Across The Sunrise to duke it out for the minor money.
Win: Waki Notion
Place: Black Wood Nymph
Show: Chopping Hill
Good luck to all.