Equinics 2016 Dirt Marathon

Equinics  2016 Dirt Marathon – Gold Medals and Golden Blankets

 

The Jon Eric Nash Memorial

 

(Excerpt taken from the Equinics 2016 webpage.  The race is sponsored by MANO from the Pastures of Green residency.)

“Rick died in 1975 at the age of 25. He was my brother in arms: a good man, and a good soldier.
We had many good times, as only young soldiers in a foreign land can have good times.
Some stories must remain untold (sobering up in a German Funeral Home for one).
I think of Rick often, and his memory always brings a smile to my face.”

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning,
We will remember them.

 

And now, to the field.  It is deep, and it is intriguing.  3200 meters on the dirt for open 4yo+, three of which are fillies…and one of them is a beast of epic proportions.  Six G1 winners, seven millionaires, an End of Year trophy winner and his two fierce rivals who are currently unbeaten in 2016.  There is so much going on in this race, even the sub-plots have sub-plots.

Earning a medal amongst this bunch will be no small task, and quite the lifetime accomplishment, in my opinion.  My best wishes to all competitors.

 

QUICK, To the analysis!

Header format =  PP#  Name  Stable(Master)   Odds  Residency

 

#1      DUKESASTER    adeeprock0(LIGHTNG99)     12/1   ESR

The Rock knows his way around distance horses; his HOY DARK MANDU needs no introduction.  This guy won the G1 Hit Man (16f) and has been close on several other occasions at the top marathon levels…not bad for a $75000 claim from a non-winners of two.  He’s by the late-developing Duke of Marmalade out of DISASTERPIECE, an EOY trophy winner and three time G1 victor at 2000m for zewango1(SDMF).  Despite the credentials, the Duke’s patented late rally has been too late to threaten of late, and looks to be a superfecta filler at best in a star-studded affair.   He does save all the ground and that could help earn a lesser medal for the boys from New York.

 

#2      STUCK ON CARDS      stackedcards(KASHBARN)   SCR  CC

So, this is new!  Despite being officially nominated on the Pastures of Green Equinics page, the entrant for the not-yet-dead Comedy Central residency appears with the prefix “SCR” where your morning line odds normally sit.  This could be a placeholder for what should be astronomical odds – the 1 for 141 Stuperhorse has single-digit speed figures in 4 of his last 5 starts – but I’m not sure who is playing a joke on whom.  Assuming he runs (perhaps ‘jogs’ is more appropriate), he’s a lock for the top of your bottom 3 trifecta. Who said there are no sure things in horseracing?

 

#3      REVERBEROCKET      gradeone(SUPER1)      20/1   DelPenn

Never question the patience of Jeff and the Super bunch.  This DISTORTED HUMOR colt from a stakes-winning AP INDY mare needed ELEVEN starts to break maiden, and the first eight of those weren’t even close.  He got better from there.  While not having earned Graded Placed credentials just yet, he seems a viable stakes horse with potential for good things to come.  I think his sweet spot may be shorter than the 2 miles  (109 SP at 12f), but that’s why they call it ‘taking a shot’.  He fits well with the 2^nd tier of candidates today.

 

#4      UNBRIDLED LOGIC     flagdown4(FLAGDOWN)       10/1 P of Green

Need an advertisement for the benefits of 3yo scratch breeding?  Look no further.  Holy hype machine, this filly is a Runner!  The combo of MALIBU MOON, UNBRIDLED’S SONG and DAMASCUS was certainly logical.  Making her debut in May of ’15, she was nothing special until uncorking a vicious rally from 19 back to be 2^nd while running out of her conditions in a September allowance at 2400m.  Since then, she was beaten by nary a filly nor mare – 6 in a row, a pair of G1 and G2 each, going away by daylight every time.  She was shortened up last out in her first try against the boys in the G1 Razorback at 14f… and she did ‘OK’.  Last by 19 lengths at the second call… she was ‘beaten’ a quarter length by a ‘pretty decent’ horse who happens to be the favorite today (HAACK’S ROCKET).  And by ‘OK’ of course I mean “HOLY &*#% what am I watching, a horse or a projectile?” When I say ‘beaten’ I in fact mean “Otto may need a change of undies, dear Lord that was too close for comfort”.  The ‘pretty decent’ horse is one win away from the HOF and has lost ONCE in his last SEVENTEEN starts. So there’s that.

Needless to say the secret is out, the beast has been unleashed, and heaven help us all during that extra 400 meters of real estate this mare-of-a-lifetime gets today.  I expect a battle that promises a finish to rival any in Equinic history.

 

#5      STARS COLLIDING      cab31(CAB31)     9/1     East-West Connex

As if the inner post positions weren’t already jam-packed with deadly closers, may I present to you this Deep Impact colt who is 5 for 6 at today’s distance.  Plenty of excuses for that first marathon defeat:  he was only 3yo facing older, it was his first try at 3200m, he was ridden by a 10% jock from Massachusetts, and oh yeah, he lost by a half-length to OH I DON’T KNOW, SOME HORSE YOU’VE PROBABLY NEVER HEARD OF NAMED OTTO’S ROCKET.  That’s a pretty good listed-stakes loss.  He sits dead-last about 20 lengths off the pace, and then he smites his opponents like they’re standing still. He won the next 6, all graded (including the G1 Cayuga Lake), going away by daylight. SOUND FAMILIAR?

I’m sorry for shouting.

Stars Colliding?  Couldn’t be a more appropriate name for this race.  He’s gonna be right there in the blink-or-you’ll-miss-it photo finish.

 

#6      ACT OF THE EMPEROR       babies6(DEREKCARLSON)  10/1          URC

I love the breeding on this multiple listed stakes winner from the Universal Racing Club (Empire Maker x AP INDY x Majestic Light).  Derek Carlson, if that is his REAL name, saw enough to nab him out of a $35000 maiden claimer and has done little wrong since.  He’s won some lesser events but has only been the 2 mile route one time, a solid 2^nd in the G3 Cowboy Hcp back in February.  He’s a closer but probably not a late-late-late closer like some of our other friends (see above).  To me he ‘feels’ more like a 12 furlong horse and may have a bright future at that distance, but the book is still out on a late-developing 4yo with only 2 Graded tries to his name.  Definitely a name to remember.

 

#7      THECATANDTHEFIDDLE     wetfast(WETFAST)       12/1          Megalopolis

Filly No. 2 in the race, but don’t let that diminish your assessment the chances for this 4yo he-mared daughter of Kitten’s Joy.  Unraced at two, she was serviceable but not outstanding at three, kicked around the upper allowance levels this year at 4 until breaking out with a big listed win (13f) in April.  Her last race was her best race, a very solid closing 2^nd in the G1 Little Rock Stayer (14f).  The competition level is cranked up another few notches, but the arrow is pointing up on a filly who has yet to extend to the full 16f distance.  I’m not counting her amongst the contenders, but I would not be shocked to see her number posted somewhere on the tote board.

 

#8      HIT N MISS          dirtriot(HOUSERIOT)    14/1   EURO

By Medaglia D’Oro out of the multiple G3 winning Deep Impact mare SMASH N GRAB, Houseriot’s HIT N MISS was always expected to be a good one.  He’s a half-brother to the Smart Strike colt RAM N RAID, who won one of the SIM’s great 3yo classic preps in 2013 (G1 VERMONT is 4 lovers) before finishing a credible 5^th in the Bluegrass Stakes itself.  With those bloodlines in mind, this guy was fed a steady diet of dirt mile allowances and showed promise at 2, but failed miserably in the 2014 Equinics and never cracked the Derby trail at 3.  As with many past and future marathon champs, he woke up in a big way when stretching out to 12 furlongs and popping an unexpected 110 SP back in a September conditioned allowance race.  Since then he’s reeled in a steady diet of G3 wins, G2 placings and generally well-managed efforts, but not enough to show he can crack the G1 ceiling in this spot.  With 27 lifetime starts in his 4^th calendar year of racing, we may have seen the best of HIT N MISS but he certainly reached his potential. One of many who will be battling for a minor placing, and perhaps an eminent future as a he-mom.

 

#9      HAACK’S ROCKET       erenotto(HAACK)          5/1     Hispano Parlante

If you’ve been paying attention you certainly remember that this scratch-bred Awesome Again colt is the real deal, with $2.37 mil in the bank and the #1 Divisional ranking to back up all the hype I’ve spewed thus forth.  This is the kind of entrant that horseplayers strain to find flaws with (in order to bet against the chalk)… and let me tell you, they’re hard to find.  The pedigree is royal blue (Unbridled x Nijinsky II back end).  Trainer Otto, aka HAACK is a long-time Beisbol favorite, easily a top 5 conditioner in the game and someone who would get more recognition if he sought out such accolades. This horse lost exactly once in the last 12 months, but it was his 14^th start without an extended break, and he bounced right back with a G1 victory at the same distance next out.  If we must pick nits, each of his four G1 victories were at 14 furlongs, so technically there is some uncertainty at this level… but he is 2 for 2 in 16f races, both listed stakes.  I see no reason to believe he won’t be on or near the lead at the eighth pole, and will fight to stave off the final surges of the deepest closers.  He’s the one to beat, but with more on the line than most could ever dream of.  Buena suerte.

 

#10    HIGH AND DEEP          wrightrams(NEXTBONUS)     15/1          Queensland

Do I really have to write about this entrant?  There’s nothing wrong with the horse, per se.  Whatever.

So, once upon a time, this guy who really likes the whole he-mare thing bred Hussonet to GEMINI JEDI (Deep Impact), who was a reasonable turf allowance horse which once won a stakes race.  The he-foal sucked on the turf, then he sucked more on the dirt until one day (see: Magic Marathon Horse Formula) the trainer entered him going 12 furlongs and HIGH AND DEEP won real good.  Then it happened a bunch more times.  He’s been doing, like, OK I guess, but he doesn’t seem like he wants any part of these bad mama jamas(sp?)  He has a distant 2^nd to the very real STARS COLLIDING on his résumé, but no reasonable person is considering him for the top of the ticket.  So neither will I.

 

#11    CAN’T TAKE CHANCES        bum(SMUBS)      28/1   Minnesota Testbarn

Filly #3 is also lightly raced (14 starts) and newish to the Marathon racket, though not yet as ambitious or accomplished as her female counterparts entered today.  She mostly beat up on state-bred competition before crushing a 14f restricted allowance race, followed by some nice listed wins with a G3 placing sprinkled in.  On the pro side, she’s never tried 16f yet with a solid pedigree backside (Danehill Dancer x Dubai Destination x Lyphard), and the horse who beat her in the G3 went on to win the G1 Little Rock Stayer.  On the con side, her speed figures don’t jump off the page and she’s trying G1 boys for the first time.  G1 boys AND that beast in the 4 hole.  CAN’T TAKE CHANCES proves, in fact, that you can and should take chances – because that’s what the game (and the game of life) are all about.  It might not be true, but it sure sounds nice at the end of a paragraph.

 

#12    CATCH MY STAR         harrylanlow19(HARRYLAN)  23/1   Elite

Harrylan acquired this Texas bred with the large-lunged pedigree (Pine Bluff x Sea the Stars x AP Indy) and earned his keep the old fashioned way – he brilliantly exploited his conditions to the fullest.  13 of his 26 starts are wins, and all but one of them came in state-bred company.  5 lifetime allowances, 3 starter allowances, 2 open allowances, and 3 stakes races.  As a career goes, that’s good enough for me.  It would be unfair to say he’s going full Rick’s Natural Star on us – the horse HAS won eight straight, including at 16 furlongs – but it would still count as an all-time upset were he able to wire the field in his first unrestricted try.  This STAR certainly will need CATCHing.  I do expect him to be on the pace and in the mix with a credible effort… the only question is how much of his fully realized potential was secretly untapped.  It was once said the stars at night are big at bright… deep in the heart of Vermont?

 

#13    COMEBACKISLAND    dontbetonme12(dontbetonme)   87/1   Racing HQ

The cat was already out of the bag when esteemed trainer Daniel picked up this fellow after a MC25000 jaunt – he likes to go long.  The Pleasantly Perfect colt is still Allowance N2X eligible, thoroughly beaten in an open allowance effort last out (albeit on the turf).  Racing HQ’s dontbetonme placed the winning bid when Daniel cashed out at auction less than one month ago, so this marks the first start under the new colors.  Talk about seeing what’s under the hood!  There is still room for improvement, but that’s a whole lot of improvement we’re talking about to get a piece today.  In the spirit of the Equinics, we often enter horses not so much for the chance at glory, but rather to represent our residency and share in the comradery.  I know I’ve been there, and for that, I commend Racing HQ and everyone else who lines up at the post.

 

#14    MR HARDHEAD           hardhead()           18/1   Northwest Racing Circuit

Everything about this entrant seems ‘highly unusual’, in the best possible context that can be construed.  First, his sire is Unusual Heat, a California-based Nureyev stallion known for speed on the turf.  His best foal in the SIM is TENACIOUS HEAT, who won an edition of the 2000 Guineas (1 mile on turf).  The damsire of said unusual entrant is… Nureyev, making him a 2 x 3 inbred to a horse known for speed, or turf, or both.  Mr. Head tried everything at 2 and 3, and won a 7 furlong sprint race as recently as November, with no clear direction as to what this horse might become… or prefer.  So how do you follow a 7f dirt win?  With a 10.5 furlong win, of course!  He won or placed in 2 more similar efforts, until he was turned back slightly to 9 furlongs…and posted a ridiculous 116 SP.  I’m not a speed figure guy (as you might have guessed) but a nearly 20 point spike gets my attention every time.  So now he shows up in the longest race of all, and I can’t make any sense of it whatsoever.  He might freak on us and shock the world.  He’s more likely to contribute to a wicked pace and set it up for the Silky Sullivan flagbearers to the inside.  Good luck in the future, MR HARDHEAD!

 

#15    OUTBACK BORON      greynomad(TULLOCH)          21/1   Midas

Tulloch’s 5yo son of Smart Strike certainly has the chops, but is a little past his prime.  His career achievement was an impressive win in LAST year’s G1 Cayuga Lake, but subsequently fell out of form and has not threatened in similar company.  He’s been perked up a bit with a return to allowance company (two easy wins) and will have 8+ weeks of rest leading into today’s contest… perhaps a swan song is in the plan after 30 lifetime starts.  If he’s got anything left in the tank, we are going to see it here as he takes aim on the leaders at the 1600m mark.  Hard to envision a scenario that gets him to the winner’s circle, but he’s a deserving entrant and a G1 millionaire at the end of the day.

 

#16    OUT OF THE CLUB      mtk2010(mtk76)  10/1   Blazing Saddles

The trainer of last year’s Bluegrass Derby winner shows up here with a wildly successful Korean-bred pairing of notorious blue-tailed Hansen with a nondescript Bernardini x Northern Dancer mare.  Sometimes it pays to temper your expectations, as mtk patiently waited for this horse who could not escape the first lifetime condition…until the 12 furlong race came along… and by now you should know how that works out.  Five starts later, you’ve got a horse who has won five in a row and three listed stakes, unchallenged.  The 4yo season has not been as kind to this one, being thrashed in the G1 Razorback Route last out, but he has not been embarrassed in any of the previous efforts (third in a G3).  Class is a bigger question than distance, though both are valid points to quibble over.  He’s one of the many here with something to prove, but with plenty of arrows left in the quiver for a pretty good archer, to abuse the analogy further.

 

#17    LITTLE COLUMN B      pbcash1(lenny271)       6/1     GR Simsters

I don’t write for the BTB often, but when I do, LITTLE COLUMN B is there.  I’m fairly certain my last assignment was for the 2015 Breeder’s Bowl Marathon preview (proficient roxyken, I am not).  By pure chance I drew this card when I raised my virtual hand in volunteerment, if that is indeed a word.  In any case,  LITTLE COLUMN B won handily that day, and if Lenny were not Lenny he might think that a positive omen.  The Evil Empire obviously scoffs at whimsy and eschews concepts like luck and fate, so I’ll harbor no expectations based on sheer coincidence.  The horse?  Yeah he’s good. The son of Admire Moon is typically dominant at 14 furlongs (see: Breeder’s Bowl) but hasn’t really tried the big 16f G1 races.  He was not gaining on HAACK’S ROCKET and was passed late by UNBRIDLED LOGIC when 3^rd last out in the Razorback Route, but gets what looks like a positive jockey switch on the stretch to 16.  I like that he was rested this spring, and the last was his first serious effort of 2016.  Despite the limited data on the longer races (2 starts, one win, one third in early 2015) one has to think that Lenny is going for the gold here.  He’s in a virtual tossup with the 4 and the 6, if all of the other factors combine to work in his favor.  I’m rooting for a three-way dead-heat.

 

#18    VASEUX     ehteam4(vkstables)      76/1   The Eh Team

Hussonet gets a second entrant, for reals, in this Aussie-bred by way of Canada.  I had not heard of Turkish based damsire Three Valleys (Diesis x Niniski) but I do know dds In The Wings, so let’s call this a deeprock-esque pedigree of some intrigue.  This fellow was predictably slow and a little on the cheap side, while being perfectly useful and competitive in the state-bred claiming ranks for most of his career.  With maturity he has advanced to the allowance levels and has solid, if not stakes-worthy credentials at the marathon distances.  He’s always coming late and has been 1^st or 2^nd in every dirt start in the past 2 years.  He may not win, but I’ll bet he runs his race and puts up a respectable number.  He’ll certainly feel a little salty when he gets back to beating up on the marathoners down under.

 

#19    TAPORIS   asrstar2(TENPOINT)    18/1   All Star Racing

I’m on page nine of this thing, is that normal?  19 is a lot of horses, and TAPORIS is a lot of horse to round out the field.  I know this horse from his days as a 3yo turf marathon specialist.  In the 14.5f G1 Saint Legend, he ran a game 2^nd to eventual Breeders Bowl Turf winner WILHELM SCHMECK (my G1 winner SWAP was third, in case you wondered). Prior to that, his dirt victories consisted of a 5 furlong maiden race at 2, and a 10 furlong listed stake last April.  So when TAPORIS threw a clunker in the G1 Spring Cup (Turf), tenpoint wheeled him back in the 16f G2 Baltimore Special (Dirt) and wouldn’t you know it, he smoked them (including #1 DUKEASTER).  Follow that with a 16f hot race with a 61 speed figure, and you’ve got the most intriguing live longshot on the program.  I’m sure the connections were not pleased to draw the outside post, as he’s most adept at using tactical speed to stalk the pace, but he could settle just behind the early speed and save ground, if simulated jockeys do that sort of stuff.  I don’t know because I still watch races on the two-dimensional ‘old viewer’.  Or maybe I am the ‘old viewer’.  Existential questions aside, I like this horse a lot and am intrigued as to what could happen here.  I think we see him back in the Breeder’s Bowl and perhaps in the winner’s circle with a better draw.

 

In lieu of closing statements and an attempt to summarize or proselytize, I’d like to thank you all for reading, for participating, and for playing.  Long live the Equinics, and long live the SIM.