Big Race Preview 3154

Three year olds dominate the landscape this weekend. Three races for the colts (arguably one too many) and one for the ladies highlight the weekend. The most exciting race is not the G1 race but is the G2 All Saints Derby. There will be several runners this week that will get their chance at making the large leap of getting into the Bluegrass Derby.

Race: 3154.0514 All Saints Derby — Derby Lock Prep – Grade II – $500,000
Track: Louisiana
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

We have new rules this year concerning getting into the Bluegrass Derby with certain designated races being named “lock” races. Win this race and you are in the Bluegrass no matter how many stakes points your horse has earned. The effects of these races will be interesting to note.

Our favorite here is El Industrial who was the runner up last time out in the G3 Risen Star run a few weeks back over this same course. He is the type of horse that could really benefit from the new lock races. He is lightly raced with just four starts and with only twenty stakes points at this time it would take a great deal to get him into the starting gates for the Bluegrass. Now all he has to do is continue to improve here. He comes from way out of it and that could be a negative for him but he has the best last race speed figure coming into the race.

The number one ranked three year old filly is taking on the boys again. She would already qualify for the Bluegrass and is opting to face the boys rather than the girls in this week. She has beaten the boys twice as a twice as a two year old one was a G1 route in December. Still she is in a tough spot and more bad could come out of this run against the boys than good.

The pace here looks to be tough with several front runners that look capable of wiring the field. Mr. Mistoffelees won a G3 as a two year old in wire to wire fashion with a solid speed figure. He just missed in his three year old debut last time out in a listed stakes and should be sharp for this effort. Adobochubbycheeks may have the longest name every but he has shown good ability on the front end in his last couple of dirt races. He last was on the turf but with the switch back to dirt he could be ready to fire. He still needs to prove he can carry his speed all the way.

Ck Ridgemont High is another lightly raced runner in here. He has shown a good ability to stalk in winning two of his three career starts. He will have an almost ideal trip from behind the pace and will be a player if he shows any improvement.

Race: 3154.0816 The I AM NOT A CROOK Classic – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

This is listed as a G1, and there will be G1 points awarded here but on paper this is not a G1 quality field. The field only has three graded stakes winners and only one of those has won a G1 and that was way back in August. A lot of lightly raced runners stepping up for the first time will get their chance to earn a trip to the Bluegrass.

Based on past performances Lucky’s Capital (ENG) looks much the best. He won a G2 last time out by more than three lengths earning a 100-speed figure which is the highest among this field. The knock is this will be race number three is six weeks, which could mean he is due for an off race. If so that will open this race up.

Watergate Scandal should be on everybody’s sleeper list for the Bluegrass. He is well bred with a classic pedigree and he has amassed five wins in seven starts. This is an excellent spot to run in a graded race again. He has a previous run in a G2 where he finished fourth but that was several races ago as a two year old. He showed big improvement last time out in his three year old debut leading every step of the way earning a 97-speed figure winning a listed stakes.

Past those two you are looking at a field full of runners who are off their game or have been running solid earning mid to low nineties speed figures. Insky Winsky Spida is the lone G1 winner and has the turf to dirt angle working for him but has not been competitive since the Breeder’s Bowl.

Race: 3154.6215 Felipe Alou Cap – Grade II – $250,000
Track: France
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

This field is not real strong. Although not designated as the favorites it is a pair of Kingmambo sired runners that look most interesting. King Sim Star is the second favorite on the morning line. He has won four races in a row as he made is way up the allowance ladder. Last time out he took a listed stakes race with a 98-speed figure while winning by two lengths. He likes to stalk the pace so with his inside post he should be a major player.

King of Mud is a longer shot at 9-1. He too won a listed stakes race last time out by two lengths showing great improvement with a 97-speed figure. Prior to that his speed figures are not impressive so if he can continue to improve he looks like a player. He should also get a good trip stalking the early pace from a desirable post.

Achaemenes is the favorite of this race. He is a deep closer and two races back in listed company he earned a 99-speed figure coming from well off the pace. He then made a run in the G3 Risen Star and that race was not very good where he finished sixth. He might not have liked the off surface in that case. His deep closing style should fit his outside post so if he belongs he should be closing in the stretch.  

Race: 3154.0515 Louisiana Oaks – Grade II – $250,000
Track: Louisiana
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

With the number one ranked filly opting to face the boys Spooky Wildcat takes over the duties as the race favorite. She has been outstanding so far with four wins from five career starts. She won the G2 Devola Dane South last time out with an impressive 100-speed figure. She does her running from a stalking position just off the pace so more times than not she is going to be a factor.

You’re a Towel is the number two ranked three year old filly and a runner. She is not the favorite because her speed figures have not been as good as the favorites. She is a deep closer and in her ventures past a mile she has not shown the same closing ability she has shown at a mile. Of course her only set backs have come at the G1 level against the top fillies and she just missed in the Movieland Starlet so that probably does not mean much. Still the pace will probably be hot she will have a lot of ground to make up and she will have to do it against a runner that has already posted two speed figure better than You’re a Towels career best.