SpeedWeek III: That’s ‘One’ (Wet) ‘Cigar’ You Have There
In our final preview of three of the sprint races for three-year-olds, we head to Florida. No, not Mainline Florida, home of the Eric Clapton song along with two graded stakes in this sophomore sprint division, but North Florida, closer to the panhandle and home to some of the larger purses that go unnoticed downstate. Purses will never quite be on a par with Track 02, downstate, but a $46,000 purse is actually nifty for a maiden special weight at Track 46. You can fly under the radar here, and it’s a good place to hold a listed stakes, too, particularly if you want a nice, quiet place to unleash a potential star.
The One Cigar Stakes is a seven-furlong, $75,000 event in this week of sprints, but if it seems like the field comes up a little lacking in size, the sloppy main track has a lot to do with it. There’s a big purse up for grabs, for a listed race, and so a pair of fillies join four of the colt’s best shooters in the chase. I have a filly racing in Montana this week who loves a wet track, and given how the total of ten open-company sprints seemed to have cannibalized the fields in the smaller stakes, perhaps I should have considered a spot like this. But a pair of trainers saw an opportunity where I did not, and while they are two of the bigger prices in the field, when you consider that the longest shots on the morning-line are 5-1, no one is out of this, not by a long shot. The two previous winners went on to some late acclaim, with Fuzzy Magic winning last year, and Strike’em Slew taking the inaugural edition in 2005.
So what’s the 411 on this year’s contenders, yo?
Mrs Timeto [Meadow Monster x Tejano, trained by deeprock14] is the first of the fillies, who draw the first two slots in the gate. She’s a bargain bred who has done alright with herself against some heavy hitters to date, if nothing else. She closed strongly for second in her last, an allowance over a wet track going a mile, which poses an interesting question. If she could get an 85, a career high for a speed figure, going a route, will she appreciate a cut in distance, or will a sloppy racetrack override it? And, was it fluky? Interesting things to consider, but in another stakes without a clearly defined leader, the late dash she enjoys might play second fiddle to either her or someone else enjoying the rainy day. The last out number does fit, though, and this is a field with quality, but a small one, so it might not take a whole lot of form to pull it together here.
Displacer Beast [Fantasticat x Boston Harbor, trained by name] has just a maiden win in four starts, and this is the other filly in the field. She seems to appreciate coming from off the pace a little more, but it’s that dramatic late kick that got her an 86 last out for a third in a NW2L allowance in Texas. Curiously, every other race has been against the boys; the even-numbered starts against them have been just a little more inspiring overall. She’s a one-dimensional runner, as far as it goes this far in her career, but that late run does pay handsomely. But it does require something to chase, and, just like in Washington State’s race, exactly who’ll be the pursued is open to discussion. The pedigree is interesting: Boston Harbor was pretty decent at these mile/middle-distance outings, while Fantasticat won the Super Derby going ten furlongs at three. Distance might be good for her as she gets older, but for right now, even seven might not be enough ground to unleash a rally, particularly with the pace scenario so open.
Woke Up Screamin [Woke Up Dreamin x Tactical Cat, trained by lamepony] has the most starts in the field by far, with twelve, and comes into this off of a rough allowance race on a wet turf course. The colt got third, but over the boggy going labeled good, he was beaten 14 lengths going six-and-a-half panels. Therefore, in that sense, a turf-to-dirt angle should be an improvement. But what of the sloppy track for this race? He ran very well in his first wet-track dirt start, opening up by a wide margin before getting collared late in a seven-furlong Mexico stakes last season. The following start was a less adventurous effort, stalking the pace in the mud and closing well to be third, beaten a length in another stakes in Arkansas. (This opens up questions, such as “Does each track have its own separate biases for moisture that’s consistent for itself, if not necessarily the Sim, and do these things hold true regularly, or is it all a random pattern/machination?”, but that’s investigative reporting and speculation for someone else to address.) In three of four off-track dirt races, this colt benefited from the conditions, and the speed figures, in the 80s in each of those three starts, reflect this (the 86 two back, in his last dirt appearance, came on the lead, too, and looks very sharp here). The sloppy dirt track should be a boon, and not a bane, for him, and the turf-to-dirt approach should be lovely. Which horse will show up, though: the wild speed or the stalker? In a race that won’t have much out-and-out speed from the gate, the former might come in handy. Either way, he’s certainly live.
Lightning McBuda [A.P. Indy-Newbie’s Dream, by Storm Cat, trained by keryn] has by far the most outstanding pedigree I’ve seen in the three races I’ve covered this week. She’s by Indy, out of a daughter of Storm Cat who’s already produced three horses with blacktype, including Grade I winner Danzig With Sal. The colt is a newbie, also, with just six starts, and he makes his stakes debut here, as well as his wet-track debut. It’s not the most optimum of conditions, but Danzig With Sal does love a track in this kind of shape, so who knows? He comes in here off a seven-and-a-half furlong allowance win, earning a strong 89 speed figure in the process. That race was a slight reduction in distance for him, which he relished, and it apparently indicates a new direction for a colt with scads of potential. He doesn’t like to be far from the lead, but how late he comes depends on who loves the slop enough to go to the lead (see above). He comes from sprinter’s stock, for the most part, and seven panels isn’t much different from seven-and-a-half; running a sixteenth shorter shouldn’t hinder him too much. His last-out speed figure is not best in here, but it’s close, and with a horse who is this well-bred, it may not matter. The co-favorite might just have a narrow edge on the intangible of pedigree.
Speedy Rocks [Scatter The Gold-Barb’s Big Playboy, by Forestry, trained by kaleigh] is the other co-favorite, with the best last-out speed number of 90, the only one to have hit that level in the field. Not a lot of experience here, but two wins in seven starts is pretty promising. This one’s versatile enough to stalk, close or run up with the lead pack. Leading wouldn’t be a bad idea, but expect that he’ll be closer than usual here. The 90 came when fourth in an allowance, and the higher condition of that NW2x (following an entry-level allowance win, an 85) might have boosted the numbers. No matter, as recent form is pretty good regardless and he doesn’t have to be a world-beater here. The track conditions are what are a concern, as this is his first off-track race, and that could lead to just about anything. His pedigree doesn’t quite have the same cachet as his co-chalk, but he at least has the benefit of one stakes race under his belt, which wasn’t too bad, if not too inspiring. It’s a small field, and so even if he doesn’t handle the going, he’ll take home something for his effort, most likely.
Silver Earns Gold [Eurosilver-Blarney Deputy, by Deputy Minister, trained by trackfeats] has the most wins in what could honestly otherwise qualify as a NW3x. All his wins came at 2, and that includes a win in his debut on a track labeled good. He’s capable of some speed out of the gate, but usually he’s been better served by stalking the leaders through the opening furlongs. His maiden win was the only time he ran on a wet racetrack; the debut speed figure of 71 was solid, but improved from there, hinting to me that maybe he just got the best of a field not handling the track as well. he doesn’t lack for stakes experience, but does lack good stakes results, his best finish being an eighth in a Michigan stakes at 2. The open allowance win two back got him a very solid 87, and his debut at 3 was pretty decent, as well. Add the fact that he might not need to be much in here to get a win, and you would think his chances look very strong. I’m just not sure, though, and the abilities on a wet track are a cloud on the horizon (one of many, for this race, evidently).
My selections:
1. Lightning McBuda
2. Woke Up Screamin
3. Speedy Rocks
Good luck to all, and stay dry, yo.